Italy: Serie A statistical round up ................

Mar 20, 2020

Serie A:

Through 26 rounds (in league order), although the 8 teams marked * have played 25 games.

ITB:

Juventus +102 (62-36)

Lazio +92 (64-51)

*Internazionale +74 (60-47)

*Atalanta +192 (91-34)

Roma +86 (77-46)

Napoli +96 (62-38)

Milan +54 (55-47)

*Verona -26 (47-49)

*Parma -99 (40-62)

Bologna +34 (68-41)

*Sassuolo -53 (52-51)

*Cagliari -100 (49-63)

Fiorentina +48 (46-49)

Udinese -43 (56-49)

*Torino -88 (40-63)

*Sampdoria +13 (54-44)

Genoa -59 (38-61)

Lecce -129 (40-84)

SPAL -57 (46-61)

Brescia -137 (30-78)

Numbers directly alongside each team are net ITB numbers for the season, those in parentheses are attempts ITB created-conceded for the last six games .

ITB current form :

Top 5 for last six games.........

Atlanta +57

Roma + 31

Bologna +27

Juventus +26

Napoli +24

Bottom 4 for last six games...........

Parma -22

Torino -23

Lecce -44

Brescia -48

XP table:

Atalanta 54 points

Roma 49

Juventus 49

Lazio 48

Inter 47

Napoli 44

Bologna 41

Milan 40

Fiorentina 36

Verona 35

Sampdoria 34

Genoa 32

Sassuolo 31

Udinese 30

Parma 28

Cagliari 25

Brescia 24

SPAL 23

Torino 22

Lecce 20

Parma ,Cagliari and Torino continue to post awful (bottom 5-6) numbers, just as they have all season long, it has finally started to catch up results wise with the last two and it can only be a matter of time before Parma follow suit. We have been expecting improvement from Napoli, Milan, Fiorentina and Bologna and all largely have upped their game recently. Sampdoria have stand out numbers amongst the bottom 7, a +101 ITB differential on the team immediately above them (Torino) in the table .XP gives Bologna an additional 7 points and Samp 8 more.

Atalanta had an awful run around November when they gave up 10 points to the other top five teams , but have been head and shoulders (and torso) above the rest of Serie A apart from that, +192 for the season is incredible, +57 for the last six games , equates to 237.5 for 25 games, so they are improving not going backwards, add in that Champions League knockout stage win over Valencia and it is a hugely impressive campaign from them.

Inter are the #1 first half team with 52 points and 15 wins, Juve are unbeaten in the opening 45 minutes with 10 wins and 16 draws, Sampdoria have collected just 16 points (8 less than the second worst team ) before the break with a 2-10-13 record.

Inter are ranked 8th for second half play with 20 points less than #1 Lazio (16-9-1) who are 10 points ahead of #2 Atalanta.

These numbers have held up incredibly well in Serie A this season, especially in fixtures where "good" ITB teams have faced "bad" ones and you should not be betting any games in Italy, and they will (hopefully) be coming thick and fast at some stage, without at least checking out the above stats.

Glossary:

ITB= inside the box attempts, Goal of the month competitions usually feature several long range contenders and we always remember those 30 yard bullets into the top corner, but only 12.87% of Premier League goals over the last three seasons have been scored from outside the box , good coaches are known to encourage players to look for better scoring opportunities and it is usually only supporters urging "shoooooot" everytime the goal is within sight, even if there are 20 players between ball and net .

XG= expected goals.

XGF= expected goals for.

XGA = expected goals against.

XGD = expected goal difference.

XP = expected points.

BC = big scoring chance.

I like expected goals/points, but IMO, it is easier to see the direction teams are heading with ITB if only because there are more numerically and the swings quicker to pick up on. But I also think they highlight the flow of the games and the superiority, or failings of teams, better.

Good Luck.