Italy Serie A : updated xP/ BC and ITB stats................

Nov 15, 2021

Pd = games played.

Pts= points.

GD= goal difference, For-Against.

XP= expected points.

XGD= expected goal difference.....xGF-xGA.

BC's = Big scoring chances, created-conceded.

ITB = Chances created -conceded inside the box.

BC's L5 = Big scoring chances, last 5 games.

ITB L5= ITB attempts, last five games.

Goal of the month competitions usually feature several long range contenders and we always remember those 30 yard bullets into the top corner of the net, but only 12.87% of Premier League goals over the last three seasons have been scored from outside the box , good coaches are known to encourage players to look for better scoring opportunities, hence why we set great store by the ITB numbers, which you are unlikely to see in this format anywhere else.

I think the real value of ITB might be once the numbers start to turn, as that improvement in performance may not always be reflected immediately in results, so we will have an edge "knowing" when teams are starting to sort out those issues, OR falling into bad habits, which is just as valuable. I like expected goals/points numbers too, but IMO, it is easier to see the direction teams are heading with ITB if only because they are more numerically and the swings quicker to pick up on. But in actual fact, I also think they highlight the flow of the games and the superiority, or failings of teams, better.

Good luck !