Japan : J-League 1 betting tip: Kawasaki Frontale- Kashiwa Reysol
Mar 12, 2021
Japan : J-League 1: Kawasaki Frontale- Kashiwa Reysol
Ahead of Matchday 1, when Frontale hosted the 2019 champions Yokohama F.Marinos I wrote ..........
The last time I wrote about Frontale was on the final day of the domestic season when they played Gamba Osaka in the Emperor's Cup final and my focus was on what a fantastic season that the champions had up to that point, despite maybe finding motivation hard at times, as they had been so dominant ...............
The always prestigious final is being played this season between the teams who took the top two J-League 1 spots and will take place on neutral ground in the new national Stadium in Shinjuku, Tokyo. It is only about 25km from the Kawasaki home ground, so I assume they will be able to prepare for today much like a normal home game which is an obvious advantage.
Frontale ended the season 18 points clear of Gamba Osaka, they scored 42 goals more, conceded 11 fewer and the respective goal differences of +57 (+1.68 gpg !) and +4 reflects better the superiority of the champions over not just Gamba, but the rest of J-League 1.
That is impressive enough, but we also have to bear in mind that Frontale were in cruise control for the final 2-3 months of the season and had one foot permanently on the brake and it would not have been impossible for them to have collected another 10-15 points had they needed or wanted to. They have really only come to life since late summer when meeting a name opponent, or someone they felt needed to be kept in their place, like in a 5-0 demolition of Gamba 37 days ago in Kawasaki, where they also "won" attempts 24-7, on target 13-1, BC's 8-1, saves 1-8 and ITB 18-5.
This is the only major title that Frontale have still to win and they will surely want to become the first team to do the double since their main rival, Kashima Antlers, in 2016. First goal might be key , Gamba have to feel they need to score it, as they are not good at chasing games this season and Frontale are 24-3-0 when scoring first .
Frontale won that 1-0 and have actually played Gamba once more, in the real Super Cup game last Saturday, in that, the champions raced into a 2-0 lead , but Gamba pulled two second half goals back, before Frontale scored a 5th goal of the game very late to claim their first silverware of the campaign, but hard to see how it will be their last ! They dominated that game statistically and were for example 20-5 for ITB attempts. Their squad is very similar to last season when they had a surplus of riches, struggling to find bench places for one or two who would walk into any other J-League 1 team. Veteran Kengo Nakamura has retired and DM Hidemasa Moritahas found his way to Europe, but Joao Schmidt has been signed as a direct replacement and looks at least similar in ability. They have also signed some youthful potential like Kazuki Kozuka from Oita Trinita.
This is a team who set new records for points, goals, goal difference , wins and consecutive victories and did so playing at less than full throttle for about a third of the campaign ! It was total dominance !
Marinos struggled as defending champions, it was hard to say categorically why , it might have been that opponents had worked out how to play their high possession passing style, or that the loss of assistant Peter Cklamovski who made an ill fated switch to Shimizu S-Pulse, was greater than at first thought and the long time #2 to head coach Ange Postecoglu was more influential than we knew. What we know for sure, is that their title defence was over by Week 10 when they trailed Frontale by 17 points and after 34 rounds that was up to 36 points and as already outlined, that could have been closer to 50 ! Let's think about that, we are talking about the defending champions and an actual 1 point per game + differential, which could have been 1.5 ! Offensively YFM scored almost the same as in 2019, but they conceded TWICE as many (59 compared to 30) and on the road they were dismal with only three clubs (all bottom 4) losing more games.
The two h2h games last season ended with the same 3-1 scoreline in favour of Frontale, the game here in Kawasaki was played in late November, the champions "won" on target attempts 12-2, ITB 15-1 and had 17 corners, but did lose BC's 3-2, however, it was when Frontale were largely going through the motions. In the game in Yokohama they were 4-0 for BC's.
At home last season Frontale were 15-1-1 with a 48-15 goal difference, the draw actually came on opening day, which might offer YFM hope, but they did have enough chances to have won 2-3 games that day and it might be a false cause for optimism. Especially as KF have already been in action and that was a competitive fixture , or played out as one and that is usually a big edge in J-L1 with the teams who have been in AFC Champions League competition having an early domestic season advantage, so we can give that to Frontale.
Frontale won that 2-0 and they are a perfect 4/4 this season with a 12-3 goal difference and they look set to dominate J-league 1 just like they did last season. They are looking for a 10th straight win today and in winning their four league games this season, they are averaging a net +5.25 attempts on target per game , +2.0 for BC's and +7.75 for ITB attempts. They have scored 9 of their 12 goals before the break and appear to have a clear game plan of getting the damage done early and then easing off, playing with the bigger picture in mind.
Reysol were made to work hard in midweek in that home loss to Nagoya Grampus .........
Nagoya Grampus finished third last season and had the second best goal difference which is usually a good sign. In 2018 they were bottom of the table at the halfway stage with just 10 points from 17 games, but then picked up 31 from the last 17 rounds. In 2019 they were second after 12 games with 24 points, before falling away, across those 29 consecutive games (two seasons) they averaged 1.9 points and last year were up at 1.91 , so have played at that level for circa 75% of the last two and a half seasons. They were very solid in 2020 playing at a consistent level (finally !) for all 34 rounds and with the best defensive record in J-League. They are 5-0 for BC's in their two starts to date which included keeping Consadole Sapporo, who had scored 8 in their first two starts, very quiet. Nagoya did not concede in their last four starts of 2020 which included a visit here to Kashiwa (1-0 win) just three months ago and allowed Reysol, who were the third highest scorers in Japan last season, just two attempts on target and they can similarly stifle their way to three points again today.
This feels like very tough back to back games for them and they have conceded 20 goals in the last eight h2h meetings with Frontale, losing both last year 3-1 here and 3-2 on home soil and they trailed 2-0 at half time in each of their last three visits here to Kawasaki.
1.75 units Kawasaki Frontale -1 ball 2.99 First Half betting asian line/Sportmarket.
Good luck !
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