I previewed three games today for subscribers, putting up two large bets , one at very big odds and one small suggestion , which you can view below, it is also the briefest by some way of today's previews, but I still feel it offers value and all the major points are covered .

 

 

Just a few words about this fixture, I do not doubt that defending champions Lille are the better team and they are finding some form after a terrible start to this campaign, but I am not sure the value is with them this evening. The hosts are up to 7th, 5 points behind 3rd place on the back of 10 points and four clean sheets (10-2 for BC's) from their last four starts. However, they play Chelsea here on home soil in midweek in the Champions League and although overturning a  2-0 lead for the visitors and holders is a massive ask, the game is hanging over Lille like the Sword of Damocles and the off pitch issues for the London side (owner Roman Abramovich has had his UK assets frozen) hardly help the Blues and kind of "force" the hosts into being more positive about that game ! Also, Lille have won just 2/7 games prior to CL fixtures this season.

 

St Etienne are only a point above the drop zone, but are 4-1-1 in their last six starts (picking up 52% of seasonal points) losing only to PSG (3-1) and in their other five starts in that sequence, gave up an average of just under 0.7 xG , so we can make a claim for them being as miserly as Lille recently. These two clubs have drawn the last three h2h meetings and a fourth would not surprise and is attractively priced. Lille have won just 6/13 home starts, concededing 9 more goals here than at the same stage last season, when they were 8-4-1 and overall, they have gone from the best defensive unit in France by some way in 20/21 to the 10th best in 21/22 , albeit with improving numbers.

 

 

 

Good luck !