I posted some background notes last week on what we can expect historically from end of season games and round 38 in particular and a quick look at those is a good place to start today.
Ligue 2: Racing Club Lens - Auxerre
Last week I went "over" on Lens' trip to basement club Tours .............
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Tours have long since started to prepare for third tier football and are going to finish bottom of Ligue 2 regardless of what happens over their last two starts, they have won just four times all season, but did beat a strong Lorient team here 3-1 last month, so can find the odd performance and have scored 10 in their last seven starts (20 in 29 prior to that, only 10 from their first 19) and offensively they have improved significantly and you could argue that changes made in the transfer window worked to some degree. They say goodbye to home supporters today and we can expect them to try and entertain as a minimum.
Lens are now safe and will be expecting to make a big promotion push next season, I spoke about their size and hard to explain struggles ahead of their Monday home game with PFC.......
For Paris FC read Le Havre, they are in 9th only behind the Normandy club on goal difference and could also move into a playoff spot with the win. They have had a very pleasing season with a lot of positives following promotion 12 months ago and I have highlighted their far more offensive approach and how highly they are rated by opposition coaches on many occasions.
I opposed RCL away to Ajaccio last Monday when my brief notes included ...........
Lens are the biggest club in L2 by some way, but have had a disappointing campaign and sit just five points above the relegation playoff spot, but that might be enough, they also have two home games left after today and their last two fixtures ( including away to an already relegated team) are very win-able and I doubt they can match the intensity of the host this evening.
They lost that 2-0 , but remain four points above the relegation playoff place and cannot now finish bottom two, so are actually in a stronger position overall. Of course, they would like to secure survival asap , but travel to basement club Tours who are relegated on Friday and finish at home to Auxerre who have nothing to play for, so both will be easier than this and if Bourg Peronnas do not win at Lorient (also chasing top 5) on Friday then RCL will be safe regardless. A rather long winded way of saying that this is far more important to PFC !
Teams do tend to raise their game at the Stade Bollaert-Delelis and Lens have already lost eight here this season and have posted a 36% win, 45.5% loss home rate since last March. PFC have lost just 4 on the road and have the 4th best away goal difference (+5) and given their respective needs and the fact that they are 20 points better than Lens, having the home side as fairly strong favourites doesn't make a lot of sense.
Paris FC played over an hour with tem men which is always very tough in a league where players are technically very good and despite holding on for most of that, they conceded late and RCL took the points. Despite their league position and disappointing campaign and with the match televised, Lens still attracted a crowd of almost 25,000 which is ridiculous at this level, with some struggling to get 10% of that number through the gates and highlights the potential of the club. They can relax a little tonight and the atmosphere here should be more like a pre season game and played in a friendly manner with both maybe experimenting a little and not over concerned about conceding, but trying to win. RCL's last seven starts have seen them concede 2+ in five with the only clean sheet coming v 10 men and we should see both teams score at least once this evening and I have to go with goals.
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Lens again gave up 2 (+) losing 4-2, they will not want to lose again this evening with another big crowd in attendance and have to offer those supporters some hope for next season and/or entertainment. We can surely expect another open encounter and we almost know for certain two things, that Auxerre like to play spolier and they will also be keen to play this on the front foot.
They won 2-1 at Chateauroux two weeks ago effectively ending the host's playoff dreams, prior to which my notes included .........
Auxerre are safe with nothing to play for in 12th , we have spoken of them for weeks as largely going through the motions and their last four games have seen them concede 11 , six in the last week alone and 9/10 starts, including the last eight have gone "over" 2.5 goals.
1.75 units "over" 3 goals 2.01 asian line/Sportmarket.
I usually like to end the final day with a multiple bet of some kind, but that is not possible today, but this match in Lens has huge breakout potential and if we get an earlyish strike, the scoreline could be almost anything and we can perhaps look for that instead.
Auxerre's last 8 starts have seen both teams score in each, with 4+ goals in 9 and a further four since New Year producing five or more. Lens last four have seen two produce six goals and we get good odds about a third.
1 unit "over" 5.5 goals 8.0-9.0 general quote.
Lens : Belon, Vachoux – Duverne, Cvetinovic, Gersbach, Duplus, Hafez, Dja Djédjé, Sagnan – Koukou, Bellegarde, Mesloub, Diarra, Ephestion – Lopez, Fortuné, Gérard, Bayala, Chouiar.
Auxerre : Boucher, Westberg – Arcus, Boto, Ndicka, Tacalfred, Youssouf – Adéoti, Barreto, Fomba, Konaté, Sakhi, Touré – Ayé, Fumu Tamuzo, Sangaré, Vincent.
Good Luck.
