Low key start to the new season, just a few words about a couple of games. But first............

 

We have seen a few more home wins in this league on opening day across the last three campaigns, but they were almost non existent for a couple of seasons prior to that and over the last 5 years the 50 Matchday 1 games have played out 10- 25-15, that's 50% draws and just 20% home wins and we need very good reason to back a home team at low odds on opening day and there are several of those today ! Anyway, I am swerving those and taking two road teams.

 

 

 

Paris FC are quite ambitious , but could not replicate 2018-19's 4th place finish and were involved in a season long battle to avoid the drop, after falling out of the blocks through the early rounds. They will be keen to avoid a repeat and I spoke a lot about their numbers improving late last season and at both ends of the pitch, one game was away to Chambly where they won 2-1 and dominated statistically.  PFC had a good finish to their campaign, losing just 2 of 9 and taking points from  games with three top 6 teams in their last four starts, two of which were away from home, they were unbeaten in their last five on the road, scoring 9 goals.

 

What I find especially eye-catching in these financially troubled times is that they have been backed by the owners and received the biggest Ligue 2 budget increase this season , up more than 30% and giving them the 4th biggest in Ligue 2. They have cleared out a lot of "deadwood" and signed plenty of young talent, also joining is Gakpa Marvin who played a big role in Metz's 18-19 promotion winning team and made 13 appearances in Ligue 1 last season, he will add some experience to midfield. Likewise LB Florent Hanin (missing today) who played 42 games for Vitoria Guimaraes last season including 9 in the Europe League, they finished 7th in the Portugese top flight (with Hanin playing every minute of 25 games). Famous French head coach Rene Girard took charge in January and eight months might only be 10 games or so this year, but is a good time to work on things and a lengthy period to focus on what was needed.

 

Chambly are in that always difficult second season after promotion and have a budget less than 40% that of PFC, we will discuss them more in the future, for now, this is about the visitors.

 

 

 

 

 

Prior to Christmas I previewed the reverse meeting between these two clubs.............

 

Grenoble draw far too many games, but have only lost to leaders Lorient in 13 starts, that defeat was narrow (2-1) on the road and they created plenty, failure to turn one point into three is a concern, but they are playing "weak" opposition tonight and could move as high as 9th with the win. That weak comment is not meant as an insult to Rodez, it is just that they were playing 4th tier football two years ago and had to more than double their budget just to make the minimum requirement in Ligue 2, they have done well to collect 21 points good for 12th, but they are set for a difficult second half of the campaign. Their ITB numbers are bad -32 (giving Grenoble a +43 edge) and they have lost six times on the road already and all three home games to the top half of the table teams faced. Grenoble fit that kind of profile, they put up some good numbers in a 1-1 draw away to Sochaux last week and have gone with a very offensive looking group today and despite all those draws, I suspect they only have all three points in mind.

 

Grenoble won that 2-1 and finished up 9th, Rodez ended up six points above the drop zone and were, I suspect, relieved that the season had ended early as they picked up only 14 points from their final 16 starts and seemed bottom three bound. They have lost starting goalkeeper Arthur Rasmus who has been first name on the team sheet for the last two seasons.

 

The visitors only lost 7 games all season , if they could just find a few more goals they could put in a top 5 push, the signing of Achille Anani might help, he had 16 goals and 5 assists for Bourg -Peronnas last season, they only scored 38 , so a big contribution which saw him golden boot winner in the third tier. LW Mamadou Diallo also joined from Creteil he had 8 goals and 4 assist playing wide in a mid table team and another potential game changer