Ligue 2 update..............
Feb 15, 2020
Just as I did earlier in the week with the Championship stats, I wanted to show you how we applied the Ligue 2 ITB numbers ( see previous post) to yesterday's games.................
Auxerre- Chambly
Three weeks ago I spoke about Auxerre and how I expected a big improvement from them over the second half of the campaign.............
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Auxerre are +19 ITB for the season (38-36 for their last six games) Sochaux are +3 and (35-41) respectively. That alone suggests that the 5 point advantage held by the visitors is wrong and "clubgowi" is firmly of that opinion and in early season I spoke much about their potential and then new head coach .............
They have had a decent enough window, but the signing of head coach Jean-Marc Furlan was a massive statement of intent, long term readers will know that he is a coach I have great respect for, he averaged 1.72 points across 122 games with Brest, took them up last season and then stepped down, that was his 4th promotion from L2 (three with Troyes) and he has usually managed it playing attractive football. If anyone can turn Auxerre around it is him, early signs are good .
They are a big club in Ligue 2 terms with one of the bigger budgets and should have a good second half of the campaign. They beat Le Mans on the road last week and time to build on that now.
They are some issues with Sochaux and when I updated the ITB numbers over New Year I noted .............
Within the numbers , Sochaux had a good run a while back, but that aside, their numbers have been pretty poor and I would have a question mark against both them and Troyes, which saddens me to say, as they are a team and club I like, but they have been struggling for 10 games or so and only Paris FC have created fewer ITB attempts in the last five .
They have played once subsequently, drawing 1-1 at home to that same PFC team and allowed the 19th placed side 5 attempts on target, as the Parisians had managed just six total in their previous three starts and have scored just 11 goals all season, that is worrying in the extreme.
I had another look at the reverse fixture last night, which Sochaux won 1-0 , it was an injustice, no luck in front of goal and they were passing the hosts to death at times, afterwards Sochaux head coach Omar Daf spoke about the visitors being a "formidable team, full of quality with technical mastery" and they do look good all over the pitch, but need to start finding the net on a more regular basis.
After the first transfer window I also spoke about the addition of Mickael Le Bihan..........the signing last week of Mickael Le Bihan from Nice, who had a goal and assist on his debut feels like a game changer, he was top scorer in this league in 2014-15 and I lost count of the number of times I mentioned him as the big player at Le Havre and he will score a LOT of goals in this team, he is way too good for the second tier IMO. He is super hungry after a long time out injured (17 months in one go) and little game time, but looks fit again and desperate to make up for lost time.
He picked up a suspension and knock shortly after that and it was only either side of the Christmas break that he appears to have returned to full fitness, all the comments about him remain valid and he could run teams at this level ragged if refinding his form.
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They won that 2-1 despite MLB being sent off and the following day I noted ............
What has happened to Mickael Le Bihan ? Scored the winner yesterday for Auxerre, a result which really builds momentum for his club and then gets himself sent off (again ! ) deep in injury time !
This is a player never sent off in 200 (ish) first team games before his arrival at Auxerre, who has been dismissed twice in 700 minutes of football !
Crazy !
Anyway, Auxerre are 3-1-1 since New Year and won 3-2 away to Ajaccio ( see below) last week , the loss came away to Guincamp who have second best numbers in Ligue 2 and when MLB was suspended. He played last week in the road win and scored his 4th goal (also two assists) in 928 minutes of action at his new club. As long as he stays on the pitch, I see him as a game changer at this level and Auxerre as much better than 12th place suggests and they are only 5 points adrift of 7th and another 2-3 wins will give them big upward options for the final third of the season. They have a +41 ITB differential over Chambly and with this "must win" for Auxerre if they are to put in a playoff push, it can only be the home for me.
2 units Auxerre -1 ball 2.76 asian line/Sportmarket.
Orleans - Ajaccio
Seasonal ITB differential is actual in favour of Orleans despite the visitors being 17 places higher in the table, BUT, Ajaccio are really good on the road, especially against struggling teams as we discussed ahead of their last away start....................... and the game in Paris, where PFC home games have averaged 2.9 goals per start. They host third placed Ajaccio who have had bottom half numbers all season, but who have suddenly found 26 attempts ITB on their opponents goal in their last two starts an increase of 7 pg over their average for the season. The Corsican team have been happier on the road all season (7 wins) and these are exactly the kind of game they have thrived in (winning 7 from 7 away to teams 10th or lower in L2). They should get chances tonight, seem the more likely winner, but PFC will throw everything at them given their league position and desperate need .
ACA won that 3-2 and moved on to 8-2-2 away from home for the season, they lost at home to Ajaccio last week , they are now 3rd , have two clubs directly behind them within a single point and are 5 points+ adrift of the automatic promotion spot(s) and need to get back to winning ways asap. Orleans look better than their dire position suggests, but seem to always find a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory and this again has that same "away" and "over" vibe. Ajaccio have a +21 ITB differential over Orleans across the last 5 starts.
2 units Ajaccio -0.5 ball 2.37 asian line/Sportmarket.
1.75 units "over" 2.5 goals 2.30 asian line/Sportmarket.
Paris FC- Le Havre
Paris lost that home game to Ajaccio (see above) and are now 2-2-7 at home, but won away to Chambly last week and could move out of the relegation zone with three points this evening. Their recent numbers are eye catching and only Ajaccio and Lorient have created more attempts ITB over the last month and a big upgrade from them and at both ends of the pitch.
Le Havre numbers are giving cause for concern and whilst they are not giving up many attempts ITB, they have created a Ligue 2 low through the last 5 games (20), which is 11 below the divisional average. That has to offer PFC hope and as poor as their home form is , their need and potential reward is great and with odds big, we have to take a chance. If we needed further encouragement, it comes with the news that Le Havre are without top ligue 2 scorer Tino Kadewere and suspended CB Ertugrul Ersoy (conceded 2 goals at home in the only start he has missed since his arrival in August).
2 units Paris FC level ball 2.27 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good Luck.
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