Looking for a Magpies hat-trick...........
Nov 12, 2022
Premier League: Newcastle United- Chelsea
United are in the good books after road wins at Tottenham and then Southampton (last weekend) for us .........
Ahead of Newcastle's last road game, a trip to Tottenham I wrote ........
I have previewed both teams in the last week and each for the same fixture, a trip to Old Trafford to play Manchester United. The Magpies went there first and drew 0-0, they were unlucky, the Reds created little until late and Newcastle did enough prior to that to have possibly deserved the win. Either side of that game they beat Brentford and Everton at SJP and scored six goals, five against the Bees who have kept back to back clean sheets subsequently and only 1-0 over the Toffees, but they were 1.52-0.12 for xG which is emphatic in EPL terms. Spurs lost 2-0, there is something not quite right with them at the moment, they were no shows at OT and the Emirates and I could pick big holes in 4 of their last 5 starts and they might turn it on today, but I just do not see them as circa even money shots at home to United right now.
The Magpies won 2-1 and followed that up with a 4-0 demolition of Aston Villa, who had just put four past Brentford. They have lost just once this season (to a 99th minute goal at Anfield), have conceded the fewest EPL goals and are starting to throw the shackles off and score freely, with 16 goals in their last six starts. Currently 4th (xP also places them 4th)with two games to play before the World Cup , if they are in the Champions League spots as we enter the transfer window, I dread/wonder to think what their Saudi owners might be prepared to spend.
Southampton are just a point above the drop zone, they have won just once at home (fewest in the EPL) and have just a 28% win rate at St Mary's since the start of last season, they have scored three goals in their last five starts from an average xGF pg of 0.69 and neither number is good enough. United won 2-1 here back in March and look much stronger now and this is the type of game the Magpies have to win if they are genuine top 4 contenders and they do look that level right now.
They won 4-1 at St Mary's and the points took them third and now they host a direct rival for top 4, but one who is currently playing nowhere near that level, but traditionally do, finishing outside the Champions League spots just three times in 20 seasons. I was keen on Arsenal to win at Stamford Bridge last weekend and highlighted some of the Chelsea numbers .......
I have seen both teams at Lionel Road in the last 5-6 weeks and Arsenal were a level (or two) better than Chelsea, the more dynamic and confident of the two and worthy of the ten points which separates the clubs at present. The Gunners are very young and still improving too, they are a little stretched at the moment with Thursday/Sunday games and a few injuries, but everyone coming into the squad is upping their game as they know chances are few and far between to break into the starting 11. They will need to win to retake first place in the EPL. but have done so on their last two trips to stamford Bridge and scored 9 goals total in the last four.
Ahead of Chelsea's last home league game, a visit from Manchester United , I noted ........
It has to be said that Cheslea were very fortunate to beat Villa last weekend and draw at Brentford in midweek and most people would say that today is a step up in level of opposition, albeit this time at Stamford Bridge. The Blues "lost" the two games by a combined xG of 4.12 -1.94 and their opponents missed 7 BC's. They showed limited ambition for 80 minutes at Lionel Road on Wednesday and on most other days would have paid the full price. I spoke in my notes for that game about Reece James being a big loss and United have a lot of attacking options on that flank. They saw off Tottenham 2-0 in midweek which took them up to 5th and a win at SB, where they have not lost in six visits (3-3-0) would lift them above Chelsea and into the Champions League spots. I will side with those trends continuing, as to say I was disappointed with Chelsea at Lionel Road is a bit of an understatement.
United needed a late goal to take a share of the points, but were worthy of that, the Blues only league start since that was a 4-1 defeat at Brighton where they only created anything of note after they were 3-0 down. Nothing I have seen from them in the last month suggests they are a top 4 side. They are 6th currently and have played at exactly that level (equates to 66 points) since Christmas, xG places them 12th and, to be honest, right now sixth might be giving them too much credit. The hosts are now missing both starting full/wing backs and odds too big on the away win.
The Gunners won 1-0, but were worthy of a more emphatic win and nothing can dissuade me that, at least right now, that the Blues are a mid table side, that is what the numbers say and when they tally with what I have seen with your own eyes, you have to go with that. United also have a pretty good record in this series as hosts, winning 5/9 meetings at SJP and they are stronger now and more confident than for any of those previous games and almost certainly than they have been for two decades.
2 units Newcastle United -0.5 ball 2.31 asian line.
Glossary:
ITB= inside the box attempts, Goal of the month competitions usually feature several long range contenders and we always remember those 30 yard bullets into the top corner, but only 12.87% of Premier League goals over the last three seasons have been scored from outside the box , good coaches are known to encourage players to look for better scoring opportunities and it is usually only supporters urging "shoooooot" everytime the goal is within sight, even if there are 20 players between ball and net .
XG= expected goals.
XGF= expected goals for.
XGA = expected goals against.
XGD = expected goal difference.
XP = expected points.
BC = big scoring chance.
Good luck!
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