MLS : 2023 season, teams with plenty of potential to improve ...........
Feb 28, 2023
MLS:
(written July 25th)
Last season we saw a return to more goals, 2.96 per game, the most since pre-pandemic, despite which, teams were having fewer attempts, but those that they did try were closer to the goal and had a better xG possibility. If we forget the COVID affected year, we also saw the most road wins ever and teams "going for it " away from home was something we picked up on early and milked in that golden run early last summer ............. that seems like a very distant memory now, but those were the days! Hopefully those trends will continue. Teams were also pressing the heck out of each other, or at least most were and they were doing it far higher up the pitch (final third), those upturns in teams pressing high were massive and the ones who weren't doing it, by and large, got left behind and failed badly.
In 2022 the following four teams all underperformed by the tune of 10-11 points in relation to xP .....NYCFC/ Nashville/ Revolution/Atlanta, so improvement from each is likely and can also be easily explained or reasoned otherwise . Atlanta United only had their inaugural season in 2017, won the MLS Cup in their second year and changed the perception of many in the US about "soccer" , they upped the level, playing before some huge crowds and were prepared to pay big money for incoming transfers, securing the three most expensive signings ever, including the #1 in the last window, paying $16m for 21 yo Argentine international Thiago Almada from Velez Sarsfield. New England Revolution were the 2021 Supporters Shield winners ( team with best regular season points total) with a record 73 points. Those two clubs both missed out on the playoffs last season, so without looking at anything else, they have to be viewed as having a very big upside and little downside. NYCFC won the MLS Cup in 2021, but actually picked up 4 more regular season points in 2022 and the fact that it was still 10 below "expected " levels is very noteworthy. Nashville SC were done few favours last season by being moved from the Eastern Conference (in 2021 when they were unbeaten at home) to the Western Conference, and last season they lost five times at Geodis Park. That was a new stadium they only moved into on May 22, meaning they played their first eight games on the road. They still collected 50 points, four fewer than 2021 , but 11 lower than their expected number and with all that disruption, they can close that shortfall now settled in their new home and Conference. I expect them to be a very big player this season.
We have four strong teams who all underperformed last season and they have to be very much on our radar from the get-go.
Two teams were big overachievers, CF Montreal to the tune of 9 points and Eastern Conference winners Philadelphia Union (Supporters Shield winners in 2020 and only lost out last season on tie breaker) by 14 points . 67 points last year for Philly is a big number, hard to replicate and their 54 from 2021 is almost exactly their 2022 xP tally, so it is easy to see them close to that. Montreal are a funny one as they religiously stuck with a back three which has long been the go to formation in MLS, despite other teams opting to ditch it, that clearly worked for CFM, who picked up an additional 19 points which lifted them from 10th to second in the East, given that in the two games in which they tried a back four in 2021 they shipped six goals, I would be amazed to see them switch any time soon.
Seattle Sounders were one of those who did change, I often speak of them as being one of the best run MLS clubs and 2022 could hardly have started any better, by winning the CONCACAF Champions League, the first MLS team to do so in the current format, a very big deal indeed. They did so with a back 4 which they stuck with almost all season, at least until they were drinking in the postseason last chance saloon. They missed out on the playoffs for the first time in franchise history (14 years) finishing 11th, never previously lower than 4th! Interesting to see what they do, but they played in the World Club Cup earlier this month against El Ahly in their first competitive fixture (0-1) and went with a 4. LAFC had great success with the change and a MLS Cup to prove it, DC United less so, upon Wayne Rooney's arrival (it was on the back of a 7-0 road defeat), he immediately switched to a back four (not played it previously), they went 2-4-11 subsequently which included a 6-0 loss to that same team who inflicted the earlier heavy defeat, so you could argue it was an improvement of sorts, except that this time they were at home!
The most expensive transfer in MLS history who did not join Atlanta United, was Brenner, who left Sao Paulo in 2021 to join FC Cincinnati, that was a surprise as FCC had finished 12th and last in 2019, their inaugural MLS season, 13 points behind the team in 11th, then 14th and last in 2020 with just 16 points. In their third season and first with Brenner they finished, yes, you guessed it (!), 14th and last, 8 adrift of the team in 13th. However, last season they finished 5th in their Conference with 49 points and a veritable flood of goals. Brenner settled and scored three hat-tricks (18 total and six assists) and he had two partners in crime goals, Luciano Acosta ( 10 and 12 assists) and Brandon Vasquez ( 18 and 8), a whooping 46 goals and 33 assists (some overlap) between the deadly trio. So they were the stars of the show, the catalyst for turning things around for the franchise, err, not really! Sure they played a big part, but it was the arrival of young head coach Pat Noonan and his GM that really shook things up, early last season I noted........
Brenner scored 8 goals last season, which was decent, but perhaps not quite what they hoped for and he has a fitness delayed start to 2022 (vias issues meant he missed pre season), but has started the last three games, Acosta has 10 goals and 9 assists since his arrival and always seems to perform whenever I watch, so they have the core of a real offensive threat and young striker Brandon Vazquez has five goals this season and will give Brenner competition. They have yet another new GM and head coach and hopefully this pair will be given time to get things right, the new h/c Pat Noonan spent three successful years as assistant under Jim Curtin at Philadelphia Union and will be looking to bring some of the Philly magic with him. They obviously like the Union blueprint, as new GM Chris Albright also came from Philly.
Noonan had his team pressing like their lives depended on it in early season, very aggressively and very much in the style of Union and in pretty much his last preseason talk with the local media he said: "We are attacking with our entire group, we are defending with our entire group, if we do that cohesively, defending from the front, we can be aggressive in how we attack, put teams under pressure and attack again." I think we get the gist! This got fine tuned as the season progressed and became less of a Union high press and a slightly deeper FCC one, this happened once Nigerian DM Obinna Nwobodo arrived from Turkish football, they only lost 4/27 after he signed and three of those games could easily have played out differently. FCC actually only took 7 points from their first seven starts, with those games very much a learning process for players and coaching staff. Nwobodo was the missing link and Noonan spoke about the incredible work rate of the player the day his signing was announced and what it would allow FCC to do, which was a dynamic midfield press (on occasion) and Nwobodo and Junior Moreno, who is a very experienced Venezuelan international, form a very talented double pivot at the base of midfield.
FCC are a very interesting team and whilst 49 points last season was 25 more than they had achieved before, we have really only seen the tip of the iceberg in terms of what Noonan can achieve here. I understand that the team have worked INCREDIBLY hard in preseason and got to a very high level of fitness several weeks ago, so that they could then ease off a little and fine tune things in the final phase of build up. The squad has been added to with the signings of Marco Angulo, Isaiah Foster, Stiven Jimenez, Paul Walters, Malik Pinto, as well as Wolverhampton Wanderers loanee Yerson Mosquera and everyone mentioned above has remained, despite interest in several (Brenner was very close to a move to the EPL apparently, no prizes for guessing that was Forest, who have had a "if he has a pulse sign him" strategy since last summer! ). Those signings greatly increase defensive options which was seen as key and they look as strong as anyone in MLS in DM which we have already discussed with the additions of Angulo and Jimenez and that is a position that Noonan sees as key to success. The head coach feels his team are miles ahead of where they were at this stage last season, that is obvious I suppose, but also that there is much more to come from his team and to me, that is just as obvious.
Good luck!
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