MLS betting preview: New York City FC- Montreal Impact
Apr 27, 2016
MLS:
On Monday I wrote ....Eight of the nine MLS games this weekend ended in home wins, with five of the visiting teams failing to score , only game that bucked the trend was the Canadian "derby" between Montreal and Toronto. Home percentage is already up above 54% (after a slow start) and it is now, once we get into the meat of the season and also have a few midweek games, that teams really start to struggle on the road. We spoke about this a lot last season, especially in Brazil , where, like In MLS, teams have to travel huge distances on occasion. It is not that teams in these leagues cannot win on the road, it is just that you have to have a very good reason for backing them and then go and find another and then........... probably opt to pass !
New York City FC- Montreal Impact
We have not discussed NYCFC much since opening day when I previewed their trip to the Windy City to face Chicago Fire.....
City were still in playoff contention in their debut season until mid September and I feel that is kind of an ideal start, expectations remain realistic and there is plenty to build upon. Having said that, we are talking about a New York team and time, given that their big name signings Frank Lampard , Andrea Pirlo and David Villa are not in the first (or even second, third, or fourth !) flush of youth , is not exactly on their side and they will be expected to compete this season and at least make post season play. Head coach Jason Kreis has been replaced by another big name in Patrick Vieira , who, above all else, will have the respect of the big name trio, who appear to all be fit together for the first time. Pirlo will want to prove himself after the often quoted accusation that he had left all his talent in Turin, that was a little unfair and I have spoken before about MLS being a very difficult league to adapt to and a world away from Serie A. He is said to have looked much sharper in pre season and even scored a goal last weekend and I suspect we will see one final swansong from him . The backline has been upgraded, Andoni Iraola will, like Pirlo, be far happier this season and after a break, and Federico Bravo, Frediric Bravo ( good names) and exciting left back Ronald Matarritta will help give a base for the "names" to build on. David Villa hit the ground running last season with 18 goals in his debut year and it is easy to see him having more ammunition this time round.
Fire also have a new and inexperienced coach in Veljko Paunovic and also a new general manager and with a bit of a revolving door policy of signing players in the off season, with 14 leaving the club, they are very much a team in transition and despite pre season having gone very well, there have been too many false dawns in recent campaigns. Fire were terrible in 2015, "winning" the MLS wooden spoon and losing 20 games, three more than anyone else, they have won just 15 (21.74%) of their last 69 MLS starts and we really need to get a good and positive look before trusting them. It is easy to see both teams being reasonably happy with a point and if there is to be a winner, I prefer to go with the visitors.
They won that 4-3 and were worthy of a more emphatic winning margin than that and I suspect few would have suggested that six starts later, City would still be looking for win #2 ! They have yet to win at home in four starts ( three draws) and patience amongst New York sports fans notoriously short of that, will already be wearing thin ! This feels like draw a line in the sand time and NYCFC have to take a MINIMUM four points from home games with Impact and Vancouver this week. Only two teams have failed to win on home soil this season, one is City, the other is Toronto and that might have something to do with the fact that they have played all seven games on the road ! Patrick Viera opted to rest Andrea Pirlo for the trip to Philadelphia Union (lost 2-0) at the weekend, not 100% sure of the reasoning, whether it was to save him for the two games this week, but it did send shockwaves through the MLS. The head coach claimed he was pleased with the overall performance there and his team did dominate possession and created chances (David Villa had 10 attempts on goal !), but it would be a surprise if Pirlo did not play some part this evening.
Didier Drogba played his first full 90 minutes of the season at the weekend in a 2-0 loss to rivals Toronto, where Impact spent a lot of the time moving the ball sideways and did not really hurt TFC, not sure if Drogba is ready for three games in a week right now and he might be saved for the visit from Rapids on Saturday. He has travelled to New York, but several defenders haven't, including centre back Hassoun Camara who was already covering at right back and left back Donny Toia (missed four games in the last two seasons 1-0-3 and they were all at home in Montreal). My thinking is that this is huge for City, Impact have just lost at home to a big rival in their first game of the season at Stade Suputo and they have another home game there in three days time, which could take priority.
1.5 units New York City -0.25 ball 2.08 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good Luck.
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