MLS betting tip: Columbus Crew- Philadelphia Union
Sep 02, 2020
MLS: Columbus Crew- Philadelphia Union
I am quite keen on this Philadelphia Union team and last midweek sided with them for a home game with NYRB...............
Union made the notes last Thursday when they travelled to New England Revolution and I spoke about their season on season improvement, an area they were likely to improve in and already had to a degree and, some off season additions.......
However, it is Union I want to focus on today. They are a club on the up, were 6th in the East in 2018 with 50 points (franchise record) and up 8 from the previous campaign. Last season they were third with 55 points and only three teams in the whole of the MLS won more games, young head coach Jim Curtin now in his sixth year in charge was rewarded with another contract extension to cover this season and next . They made the MIB semi finals losing 2-1 to eventual champions Portland Timbers, but considered themselves unlucky, they had more attempts on target, missed a penalty and had a goal disallowed by VAR for offside by the narrowest of margins, so they probably have a case.
Talented goalkeeper Andre Blake had a "terrible" 2019 by his own high standards which makes those 55 points even more eye catching. Blake gave up 10.06 more goals than expected last year , that single season mark ranks 2nd worst ever and the worst by a keeper with at least 2000 minutes in a season on a per minute rate. For goalkeepers with 25 or more starts, Blake faced the lowest number of shots of anyone in Major League Soccer, tied with LAFC’s Tyler Miller. Of those 103 shots faced, Miller allowed 13 fewer goals.Just horrible numbers and a season Blake will want to forget and he might already have done so, as he was voted Union player of the MIB tournament by Union fans and it was not even close. There are definite possibilities for Union to improve again given how few attempts they actually gave up in 2019 and that we can expect a (much) bigger contribution from between the sticks.
Philly also made some changes in the off season to enable them to press harder (which almost always works in MLS) and the stuttering start to the campaign will enable them to get more out of veteran SS/RM Ilsinho and their record is incredible when the 34 yo can play 45 minutes or so.
They finished 0-0 in what was an even game, Revolution had the better chances, but Union had five attempts on target and only gave up one, it was a solid showing away to a team who are strong offensively. Last midweek NYRB won their derby with NYCFC 1-0 , it was a fortunate win and a microcosm in one game of all that is wrong with Red Bulls under head coach Chris Armas. In 68 games in charge he has posted a minimal + goal difference and that is not good enough for one of the top teams in MLS over the last decade. In actual fact, those numbers are skewed as he took over a decent team and won 12 of his first 18 games in charge, Over the last 50 starts NYRB are +/- zero goals and have lost more than they have won, which would be "ok" on some level were they not playing such awful football !
They beat a struggling City thanks to a goalkeeping error and afterwards a smiling Armas went on television and said he was happy with what he saw (which was actually City repeatedly carving open the NY defense) and stated “our principles showed up on the day...we looked like a mature team". He has a primitive idea of how to win a football match and it is all set up to try and win 1-0 and when they don't, there is no plan B. Against City they deployed an undersized winger as makeshift forward and pumped long balls into him which were easily defended, ditched the hard press that brought the club so much success in favour of trying to stifle in midfield and keeping what creative talent they had on the bench for as long as possible. Riding their luck out and then claiming it a tactical masterpiece ! I find them depressing to watch and hope for the sake of football that Philly wins tonight.
Union won that 1-0 and followed up on Saturday with a facile 4-1 win over DC United , they might have scored six and the goal conceded was a late consolation and after they were four up. That Union kept pressing after an early 2-0 lead was noteworthy as head coach Jim Curtin has a reputation for being happy to sit on a lead so maybe he is getting more adventurous or just has greater confidence in this group of players. He had rotated his squad for that contest with today in mind so he has some depth and he made early substitutions too and his squad should be reasonably fresh for today.
Crew might be a little more weary after back to back road games where they have not scored (one point) and they had a very physical game at Cincinnati at the weekend which was a derby game where no prisoners were taken. Their league position is very flattering and boosted by three group wins at the MIB tournament and I am not buying into that form from Orlando , at least not entirely. The lack of goals is a concern, they will be helped by playing at home of course, but it is an issue and one that I really do not have about Union who have to be my pick.
1.75 units Philadelphia Union +0.25 ball 2.18 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good luck !
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