MLS betting tip: DC United- Toronto FC
Oct 17, 2018
MLS: DC United- Toronto FC (written 09.00 17/10/18)
United did us another favour with a win over Western Conference leading FC Dallas at the weekend...............
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I think that I am too weak to allow these odd on DCU to pass unbacked. They have served us fairly well in recent weeks and ahead of their home game with Montreal Impact at the end of last month I wrote ..........
Massive game with big playoff ramifications, DCU are currently 7th one place, but five points behind Impact who hold the final post season spot. United have two games in hand, so will be in a strong position should they win, a bit of trouble if they don't. The visitors would surely take a point now, given their position and road form (10 losses with only basement club Orland having worse away form in the East). DCU have been in good form for some time and are well rested having had just this game to prepare for over the last fortnight, most recent start was a home game with then Eastern Conference leaders NYRB ..........
DCU made hard work of beating Minnesota United on Wednesday , coming from behind to win 2-1 , they made some changes with today in mind I guess and it paid off, I don't see anyone being given a day off this evening, with no games for another 13 days and three points likely to be enough to take them into the top 6 and the playoff spots. My notes on the midweek game can be read in full on the clubgowi website .
NYRB are one of the two best teams in the East, which also means in MLS and won here at Audi Field in July, one of just two teams to do so, so far. Red Bulls also won the reverse fixture by the same 1-0 scoreline three weeks ago. Both games were as close as the scoreline suggests, could have played out differently, especially the most recent meeting and few would argue that DCU have continued to improve in the interim.
NY have been the dominant team in the East for many seasons, but it is not easy to win on the road in MLS and since the start of the 2014 campaign Red Bulls are 23-23-36 in away starts, so a 28% win rate and little value for me in their odds today against perhaps the best DCU side they have faced in several years. NY have won on their last two visits but struggled before that here in DC and got the run of the ball in both wins (DCU well on top until a dismissal in the first) . Odds against off level ball feels too good to pass up.
That finished 3-3, United led three times, were pegged back each time, the last coming deep in added time. Red Bulls have the best defensive record in MLS football, so scoring three against them was noteworthy and DCU were also denied by the woodwork twice which highlights just what a fine offensive performance that was. I have to stick with them.
They won that 5-0, subsequently edged past Chicago Fire in the capital 2-1 , Impact boosted the form line with that 3-0 defeat of Columbus Crew last week, which I previewed. United will move into that final post season spot with the win tonight and failure to claim the three points will not be through want of trying.
FC Dallas are top of the Western Conference, but will stay there regardless of result today, they cannot win the Supporters Shield ,but can still guarantee finishing first in the West by winning their last two, one home start and a trip to woeful Colorado Rapids, so you could make a case for their need not being quite so great. The East is the stronger Conference by far, I suspect the four best teams in MLS, as a minimum, are from the East, so I am not sure that given the level DCU have been playing at, especially at home where they have a 10-2-2 record, that there is much between these two and with home advantage so big in the MLS and with FCD missing a couple of key players, it definitely feels like advantage Wayne Rooney and co.
Dallas arrive without right back Reggie Cannon (who has only missed 48 minutes of MLS action this season) and defensive midfielder Carlos Gruezo (missed five games, one win, in two seasons) with the pair on international duty, these are two HUGE losses for a team who are proud of their defensive record and for whom it all starts with solidity at the back.
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DCU edged it 1-0 with a second half goal from Russell Canouse ,his first ever in MLS (27 appearances) so very timely. United also hit the woodwork and improved after the break, but FCD were the better team through the opening 45 minutes , but almost all the chances they fashioned were from outside the box. Rooney missed a fantastic chance very early in the game and if he scored, I suspect DCU might have run away with the contest, as it was, it was three hard earned points. It was a gutsy win, United are shorthanded at present and only named 17 players for the game, with injury, international call ups and Paul Arriola missing due to the passing of his father last week. I assume he will be back today. The hosts went into the game with a "win at all costs" mantra and now, two wins from the post season, I cannot see this being any different. If they take three points today, they can seal a post season spot at the weekend and that would give the option of resting up on the final day of the regular season when they are on the road, with the post season starting just 3-4 days later.
In terms of personnel, Toronto FC are as strong as anyone in MLS and have made the last two playoff finals, winning in 2017, they prioritised Champions League play in early season and came close, but have played catch up in domestic football and never breached the gap, they have qualified for CL football anyway with a Canadian Championship win, They have nothing to play for in the league and would almost certainly rather that DCU took the final playoff spot than rival Montreal Impact and I suspect their remaining energies will be saved for a Canadian derby game with Impact and their sole remaining home start. TFC have played 44 games, started their season on February 21st after finishing the last on December 9th, DCU have played 33 , started 2018 on March 4th and finished last season on October 22nd ! Surely a little more in the home tank along with all the motivation.
1.75 units DC United -1 ball 1.98 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good Luck.
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