MLS betting tip: New York City - FC Dallas
Sep 14, 2021
MLS: New York City FC- FC Dallas
Notes on NYCFC's home game with Columbus Crew from six weeks ago are reproduced at the foot of this email. They won that 4-1 and have played two home games subsequently, winning both 2-0 including against the best team in MLS currently, the New England Revolution, but have suffered back to back road defeats in games where they ended both with 10 men. The last of which was revenge for Revolution on Saturday. They need to sort out those ill discipline issues, but everything is easier back in NY and they get SEVEN players back today, two from suspension and five from international duty and at least five of those will start, so those players will carry no weekend baggage and this is a very good team, albeit one who has played better than the league tables suggests all season and been hampered somewhat by having to play a number of home games in the home of neighbours Red Bull. Once they are regularly back in Yankee Stadium we can return to our tried and trusted method of backing them, that is to win and both teams scoring, but we can dip into that this evening. In their last 36 home starts, they have won 25 and conceded in 26.
FCD have scored 12 goals in their last 5 away games, as many as in their previous 21 (12 defeats) on the road, they are coming off a 3-2 loss at Real SL at the weekend and Sandy to Dallas and back and then on to New York for a Tuesday game is TOUGH and remember, in MLS teams are restricted over how many games they can travel to by private plane and the trip to Utah wasn't easy.
This is incredible.............FCD's last three away starts have produced 30 BC's ! 17 for and 13 against and they face much stronger opposition today and one who is a better version of them, with Dallas operating a high press and willingness to gamble.
Home win with both scoring 3-1 /4-1/4-2 probably covers it, I will go with another 4-1.
1.75 units NYCFC -1.5 ball 2.26 asian line.
1.75 units NYCFC to win and both teams to score 2.70 + .....3.0 Pinnacle.
Good luck !
MLS:NYCFC- Columbus Crew (written July 30th)
NYCFC finished 5th and went out of the post season early in 2020, that was their first season with Ronny Deila in charge and last pre season I wrote .............
They have made minimal changes this season, all their key players remain, but they have strengthened the squad overall and they have a new head coach in former Celtic boss Ronny Deila , he was already well known to the franchise, otherwise known as Manchester City USA and he was recommended to the Scottish giants by City after he had spent months studying at the Etihad and impressed them with his work ethic and tactical nous.Hs mantra upon arrival was "evolution not revolution" and in his first interview he said:“The way I want to play and the way NYCFC has played is very similar,I’m a very attacking coach. "We want to have the ball as much as possible, but also try to be direct when we have those opportunities.”
He remains at the helm and he and I had some issues with the squad depth in early and it looked for a while that the owners were reigning in the spending, but they did sign three highly rated youngsters for big fees, with the $12m package for 18 yo Talles Magno from Vasco in Brazil , a huge fee in MLS terms and he is being brought along slowly, but has superstar potential.
However, that is not what I wanted to discuss today. Better to focus on NYCFC's form, which is just fantastic, they are coming off a 5-0 win over Orlando City and across their last four starts, they are a combined 31-11 for on target attempts, 16-4 BC's and 45-16 ITB ! It all looks to be falling into place and results are only just starting to reflect how good they have been for most of this season. Their seasonal numbers of 227-114 (attempts created and conceded) and xGD of 25.9-11.5 is so far superior to the rest of MLS that it is barely worth talking about and they should be a minimum 6 points better off.
To give those numbers some context, Crew are a point and place better off in the table (played a game more) , they are 170-160 (attempts) , 16.2- 16.14 xGD and should be 4 points worse off, a 10 point swing in favour of NYCFC over the "real" table.
The two teams met in Columbus two weeks ago, City totally dominated, but Crew won 2-1 and I think a little revenge is on the cards this evening and I expect justice to be done and the numbers to hold up and, for the hosts to record a 6th home win in 7 h2h meetings.
2 units NYCFC -1.5 ball 2.30 asian line.
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