MLS Cup playoffs betting tip: Philadelphia Union- New England Revolution
Nov 24, 2020
MLS Cup playoffs: Philadelphia Union- New England Revolution
This is a rematch of the final game of the regular season which these two played out 16 days ago and ahead of which I wrote .............
Union have been "our" MLS team this season and we have a mountain of notes on them and they have served us well. The last discussed them ahead of their most recent home game, a 2-1 win over Chicago Fire and those notes are reproduced below the "good luck" sign off. It was a lot more workmanlike than that defeat of Toronto which I suppose was to be expected and they actually played far better last week in their only subsequent start, a 2-1 LOSS away to Columbus Crew who have a 90% home win rate this season, in that game Union "won" attempts 22-7, ITB 14-5, on target 9-3, BC's 3-2, hit woodwork 2-0 , saves 1-8 and should have taken all three points, they were denied even one by an injury time winner.
We have a shortened season and today is "Decision Day" ( they do love to name everything in the US !) the Union are now guaranteed a Champions League spot by virtue of results elsewhere in midweek, they will take the Supporters Shield (best regular season ranking) with three points today, or by equalling Toronto's result, but surely they want to get this done in style and they have won all 8 games played at Subaru Park . NER cannot finish higher than sixth, which they currently hold and want to secure that, which they would do with a point, but could easily do so with results elsewhere in their favour. I do not see Union wanting to go into the postseason in a second straight winless game and they also want to secure that #1 ranking, they have taken 10 points from 4 games with Revolution already this season and I fancy we will see a 4th win today.
Union won 2-0, they created 4 BC's and restricted New England to none and just a single attempt on target. Philly have had 16 days to rest up and prepare for this and get ready to "go again" , Revolution played a first playoff game late last week hosting and beating Montreal Impact 2-1 in Foxborough. It was a deserved win, they were much the better team, but hard earned and required a 96th minute winner. It leaves less time to prepare for Union, but they are playing an opponent they know all too well and you could argue their game against Impact gives them an edge in match fitness, but I would counter that after a 30+ game season, that is probably a minimal consideration and a break might be more beneficial.
The break has left Union pretty much at full strength, goalkeeper Andre Blake ( see notes below) returned to full training last week and is good to go, Jamiro Monteiro passed Covid-19 testing protocols and isn’t subject to a quarantine period after returning from his national team . Head coach Jim Curtin said: “Pretty much our full group is available , and our squad is playing well and I thought we had a good couple weeks of training ,but now the real test starts .”
Home advantage is always big in MLS play and usually more so in the postseason when games come fast and the higher ranked team is hosting. Union were the best team in the league and I could also make a case for them being the only top team still transitioning/improving. They have that incredible home record here at Subaru Park and a 5th win over Revolution for 2020 looks on the cards . The city is behind them and all the major downtown buildings, including the home of the Eagles (who have probably been trying to hide) have been lit up in Union colours for the last two nights. A real opportunity for the club and MLS to make big progress in a sports mad city, yet one where most fans considered themselves success starved .
2.25 units Philadelphia Union -0.5 ball 2.06 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good luck !
MLS: Philadelphia Union- Chicago Fire (written 27/10)
Union has been the MLS team we have discussed most this season and we picked up on them quickly as a potential "big player" , ahead of a recent win over FC Cincinnati here in Philly I wrote ..................
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FCC do not score enough goals, just 8 all season and only 9 in 19 MLS starts, which is not going to win you too many games ! They have played back to back road games losing by a combined 6-0 and arguably face strong opposition today in Union adn, in a third away start. Union have been big favourites of ours this season, but we have not discussed them since a 4-1 win in Montreal 17 days ago .........
Philadelphia Union have not played since the 12th when they beat New England and have been on fire almost all season, last week I wrote about how much I liked this Union team and how they performed in a 3-0 win in NY...........
NYRB actually started brightly, but did not have an attempt on target and are obviously low on confidence and a lot of work needs to be done to sort them out. Union were full of energy and self belief and when they were in possession, seemed to move the ball twice as fast as Red Bull and I think the penny is starting to drop about how good they are and if Jim Curtin (see above) gives them free reign, lots of teams are going to suffer a heavy beating this season. Bedoya, Aaronson Monteiro, Martinez and Przybylko ( that's easy for you to say !) look very strong and fluid options. They are a little banged up currently, nothing new, but it just means they are going to get stronger once everyone is back and most teams are dealing with injuries at present and those five named players are all available. Union have won the last five h2h meetings in Philly by a combined 15-1 (!) won the MIB match up and have not lost home or away to Revolution since July 2017.
Earlier in this campaign I spoke about their season on season improvement, an area they were likely to improve in and already had to a degree and finally, some off season additions.......
However, it is Union I want to focus on today. They are a club on the up, were 6th in the East in 2018 with 50 points (franchise record) and up 8 from the previous campaign. Last season they were third with 55 points and only three teams in the whole of the MLS won more games, young head coach Jim Curtin now in his sixth year in charge was rewarded with another contract extension to cover this season and next . They made the MIB semi finals losing 2-1 to eventual champions Portland Timbers, but considered themselves unlucky, they had more attempts on target, missed a penalty and had a goal disallowed by VAR for offside by the narrowest of margins, so they probably have a case.
Talented goalkeeper Andre Blake had a "terrible" 2019 by his own high standards which makes those 55 points even more eye catching. Blake gave up 10.06 more goals than expected last year , that single season mark ranks 2nd worst ever and the worst by a keeper with at least 2000 minutes in a season on a per minute rate. For goalkeepers with 25 or more starts, Blake faced the lowest number of shots of anyone in Major League Soccer, tied with LAFC’s Tyler Miller. Of those 103 shots faced, Miller allowed 13 fewer goals.Just horrible numbers and a season Blake will want to forget and he might already have done so, as he was voted Union player of the MIB tournament by Union fans and it was not even close. There are definite possibilities for Union to improve again given how few attempts they actually gave up in 2019 and that we can expect a (much) bigger contribution from between the sticks.
Philly also made some changes in the off season to enable them to press harder (which almost always works in MLS) and the stuttering start to the campaign will enable them to get more out of veteran SS/RM Ilsinho and their record is incredible when the 34 yo can play 45 minutes or so.
Union are still dealing with a few injuries, but are better off today than for some time and have had eight days to prepare solely for this fixture, Sergio Santos, Ilsinho, Warren Creavalle and Aurelien Collin are all training fully and Matej Oravec is back with the team after a 10-day quarantine required after he spent time with the Slovakia U21 team.I want to stick with Philly.
Following that big win they subsequently played away to FCC where they drew 0-0 (they had injuries and were "tired"), then hosted and beat Inter Miami 3-0, before suffering just their third defeat of the season, 2-1 to a very strong Toronto FC last weekend. They should have got something from that, probably all three points having led and with chances to extend that advantage before two individual errors cost them goals. They matched up well with TFC and looked to be in control restricting the home side to fairly one dimensional play and crosses from wide, winning the midfield battle, which few will do against the talented Canadian team.
After the last five games in which they have dropped points, Union have kept a clean sheet next time out, winning four, the last two by the same 3-0 scoreline, the hat-trick is on the cards ................3-0 !
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They did actually win that 3-0 and they have taken 13 points and scored 14 goals (2+ in each) in five games since I wrote those notes, which included a 5-0 defeat of Eastern Conference leader Toronto FC last weekend. Union has now taken over at the top of the table and will be eager to remain there. They will certainly not fear Fire who are terrible travellers, they are winless in 8 away starts this season, scoring just six goals and since 2014 they have won 11 of 110 away games in MLS, which, as even those without a calculator will know is a 10% win rate , losing almost 63% and conceding at the rate of 2.02 goals per game (for over six years !) . They have lost on their last five trips to Philly and by a combined 15-5 with the last 4 defeats all coming by 2+ goals.
The 5-0 win at the weekend is one of the very best MLS performances stats wise in recent times and Union "won " attempts 27-3, ITB 19-2, on target 12-1 and BC's 8-0 !
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