NFL betting tip: Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals
Sep 13, 2018
NFL: Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals
I previewed the Bengals trip to Indianapolis on Sunday ............
Bengals have a poor record in this fixture, but I am not certain they should be the outsider today.
Colts have a new head coach in Frank Reich and he is trying to turn around a 4-10 finish from last year and IMO he has a big task. The four Colts wins came versus four teams who averaged 3.5 wins themselves and that number was skewed, as one of the team came on really strong in late season, long after they played Indy. They were finishing games really poorly, scoring few points (lowest in the NFL and 5.5 ppg drop off from 2016 which is huge !) and having little of the ball in the 4th quarter when they blew a handful of leads. On Gameday 1 when many players tire it is hard to see that being addressed. Then we have returning "superstar" (not my words) quarterback Andrew Luck, he has not played since 2016 (ok ,January 1st 2017 .............. 21 months), he is said to be "fully fit", but I saw no sign of that in pre season. Fit is also not match fit , or mentally fit, but which I mean not fearful of injury. Experts, which I am very far from in this regard, who have watched him in training and pre season say that his throwing motion is completely changed and one wrote it is of someone who doesn't want to take a hit (who would !). I cannot see that myself, but he had a poor completion rate in pre season and did not really attempt anything long or too difficult and he is rusty at best. Reich has tried to give him some more protection, but this is a team who have had OL issues for a long time and the new HC likes to run on first down which means that Luck is going to be under pressure a lot and at times wil be asked to try and make passes he has not done for two years or even attempted in warm up games.
Bengals were 7-9 last year, but lost four games by 4 points or less and were injury hit for a couple of those witness the 23-20 loss to the Steeler in MNF ahead of which I wrote ................
I think that Cincinnati will need to put up more than they have in those 23 games to win this given their defensive issues today, missing three key members of the unit. Starting outside linebacker Nick Vigil has been their standout defender this year with a team leading 79 tackles and this is the first game he has missed since joining them ahead of last season. Linebacker Vincent Rey (56 tackles) and strong safety Shawn Williams are sidelined for the second week running, they missed the 30-16 win over the hapless Browns which doesn't tell us much, but their absence in compounded with Vigil out.
They led by 14 at the half but were battled out of it , fine margins and they could easily have posted 9-10 wins. Star wide receiver AJ Green looked more like his old self after an inury hit 2016 and is poised for his best season ever if we can rely on reports coming out of training camp and we are talking about a player with six 1,000-yard receiving seasons in his seven years and a Pro Bowl nomination every year in this league. His great work ethic is often referenced, but I understand he has stepped up a level this year and openly spoken about wanting to play another six years in the NFL and then re-evaluate . Their offensive line has been poor, it can only go one way and the issues have been addressed and QB Andy Dalton should have a little more time which will be good for him, the team and Green . He has been sacked 80 times in the last two seasons, just 11 in the 8-0 start in 2015 and any improvement in this area is going to improve their win column. But today is all about Luck and I think he might need time at best and we might never see the old AL.
Luck posted some decent numbers but we can talk about him in the near future, the Bengals trailed by 13 early in the third quarter but scored 24 unanswered points to win 34-23. AJ Green fumbled early in the red zone which resulted in maybe a 14 point swing and if Cincy had scored there it might have been an easier win, as it was, it felt hard earned, but in addition to that drop, they also had some (really) bad calls go against them, one which cost the Bengals 44 yards and some indiscipline issues, so the win could have been big . AJ ended with 92 yards and a TD and is only going to get better from here on in, the Bengals put up a balanced offense and second year running back Joe Mixon had 95 yards on the ground from 17 carries and 5 catches for another 54 , he only has 30 receptions total in his rookie year and this was only the third time he has run for more than 62 so a performance of huge promise for 2018. His second best ever total was 18 carries for 96 yards in last season's finale, so 95+ back to back and it is worthy of note that it came about in Baltimore against the Ravens in a 31-27 win, Green had a quiet day, but received a lot of attention and that set up space for Boyd and Kroft who had 11 receptions for 144 yards and three TD's . Linebacker Nick Vigil had 11 tackles at the weekend, he has not been a regular, but is expected to make a big step up this year and has certainly begun well, he has 17 career tackles v the Ravens, but only started one (10 tackles) and that all augurs well for today. The Bengals have largely dominated this series in recent years winning 7 of 9 and 5/6 here at the Paul Brown Stadium, this is always a keenly fought divisional contest, but without the intensity of Bengals-Browns/ Steelers-Ravens .
The Ravens started their own season with little more than a training work out beating the Buffalo Bills 47-3 in Baltimore. The Bills were supposed to go backwards this year in order to move forward in upcoming seasons and the franchise spoke about that and tried to lower expectations coming in, but this was way below acceptable levels and then some ! Buffalo lost the first three quarters all by 11 + points and the 4th only by 7 as most of the Ravens were already showered and changed. The Bills had 10 first downs and 153 yards of offense, the two QB's combined for 11 of 33 passes for 98 yards, no TD's and two INT and those are just beyond awful and unacceptable numbers. When a team is losing by 40 + points you usually expect them to at least be able to but up a few yards of offense as their opponent will ease off, but even that was not the case, I see no positives at all for the Bills and as such cannot give the Ravens too much credit for the win, however emphatic, it is not their fault that Buffalo were so bad, and Baltimore might be Super Bowl material, but we have to see them have a game first ! Baltimore also have a habit of underperforming on the road after a big home win and are 0-3 (0-2 last season) after the last three home games in which they put up 38 + points, including a 40-0 win over Miami last October. Sunday was the 11th time since John Harbaugh took over as Baltimore head coach prior to the 2008 season that the Ravens had dominated with 34 or more minutes of possession time while racking up more than 23 first downs. In the game following the prior 10 instances, Baltimore has gone 3-7 straight up and 2-7-1 ATS and the past 15 times the Ravens have come off a home win by 21 points or more, they've gone 3-12 straight up and 4-8-3 ATS, so another drop off would not surprise and perhaps should be expected at a venue thay have mostly struggled at under Harbaugh.
1.75 units Cincinnati Bengals -1 point 1.96 Pinnacle/Sportmarket Pro.......there is bigger in places
Good Luck.
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