NFL: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens
I previewed the reverse meeting in Week 4
This is a massive rivalry and one which the Ravens who have already lost to the Bengals can ill afford to lose, coming back from 0-2 in Divisional games is notoriously difficult.
These match up are almost always close, with six of the last seven decided by a touchdown or less and three points being the favoured margin of victory historically. My thinking when that is the case, is going with the bigger odds or better kicker and that is the Ravens in both instances, with Baltimore kicker Justin Tucker the best in the game, here at Heinz Field, which is challenging for placekickers, Tucker has made 14 of 15 field goals during his career.
Also, heartbreak can only last so long and the visitors lost 39-38 here last year after leading by 9 points late and it was a similar story in 2016. Pittsburgh do not look so good , or with quite the offensive options they had then, see Mondays notes and the Ravens have not only significantly upgraded their receiving corps, but are ranked #1 in fewest yards given up, it is only three games but that is all we have to go on and is almost 20% of the regular season !
The quick turnaround will not help and Pittsburgh have some injuries which means they will be unable to line up in the secondary as head coach Mike Tomlin wanted, or expected to. Steelers are also missing a LOT of tackles and big ones, averaging 13 per game. Hard to see the Ravens blowing a big advantage this time round, as they have not given up a second half TD this season, infact, they have been TD free in 9/12 quarters. Pittsburgh will not have seen the new Ravens WR's John Brown, Michael Crabtree, and Willie Sneadclose up yet and they could help QB Joe Flacco have a big day. Road dog wins !
That played out well with the Ravens winning 26-14, not as close as usual h2h meetings, Ravens started well, Steelers came on strong through the second quarter and looked the more likely at the half with the score tied at 14-14. Big Ben was off the pace (passer rating 72.5) and the Steelers had no running game, barely trying to keep it on the ground which was odd, ok, they were 14 points down early, but once back in it that could have gone with a more balanced offense. Steelers are 4-2-1, Ravens 5-3, a loss today might not be terminal, but it would give Baltimore the edge and a 2-0 h2h lead and the Ravens then have a bye followed by three very win-able games. I am expecting a really big Steeler showing today, they have won their last 3 ,averaging 34 points per game and with running back James Conner (pictured) being named AFC offensive player of the month...........
Over the past three weeks, Conner has rushed for 367 yards and six touchdowns, while receiving for another 159 yards. Through seven games, he's rushed for 599 yards and and nine touchdowns, and he's caught 31 passes for 323 yards. Through seven games last year, Bell had rushed for 684 yards and four touchdowns and caught 33 passes for 214 yards (he finished the season with nine rushing touchdowns and two receiving TDs). It's been a breakout year for Conner, and as Bell's holdout has dragged on the Steelers have only leaned on Conner more. He's rushed for at least 100 yards in each of his past three games after doing so once in his first four.
Le'Veon who ?
Good chance that Steelers can get more going on the ground today and all the above comments from the first meeting apply, but in favour of Pittsburgh this time.
1.75 units Pittsburgh Steelers to beat the Baltimore Ravens 2.14 Money Line Pinnacle/Vegas/Sportmarket Pro.
Good Luck.
