NFL: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns
Steelers beat the Rams on Sunday to move onto 5-4 and have some real momentum on the back of four straight wins and some hugely impressive defensive numbers which we looked at over the weekend .............
The Steelers have gone from 1-4 to 4-4 with three straight wins and defensively they have been playing at a very high level like the "steel curtain" of old, they have allowed just 81 points against in 5 starts, included versus the 6-2 Ravens and Colts who were 5-2 before losing at Heinz Field last week.The trade for safety Minkah Fitzpatrick has been the catalyst for much, but T.J. Watt is a defensive player of the year candidate, and Bud Dupree and Cam Heyward have upped their games to new levels and free agent Steven Nelson has been a great pick up.They have a 37-14 regular season record at Heinz Field since the bye week in 2013, which is a 72.55% ( odds of 1.38) win rate and yet we can back them today at odds of 2.83 ! They have lost four times this year, but only easily to the Patriots on opening day, they lost to the Seahawks by 2 points, the 49ers in SF by 4 and the Ravens in overtime, they might be 6-2, regardless of which, taking all those teams so close and each might be better than the Rams, is noteworthy .All this was done after the injury to quarterback Ben Roethlisberger early versus Seattle, which was Gameday 2 and after that heavy loss to New England and the Steelers were in a very difficult place at that time. The offense has struggled, but any one would after the loss of Big Ben on the back of Le’Veon Bell and wide receiver Antonio Brown departing and James Conner, who took over from Bell and had a Pro Bowl 2018 season being injured, but that defense has not flinched since Week 2 and will give them a chance against any one.
The Rams are decent, let's take that as a given, but they are a long way from home, late in the night in a hostile environment and, with Pittsburgh set for icy conditions this week, it will be cold tonight, the Rams left LA in the mid/high 20's. Steelers have won four and kept three very good teams close and with such a good home record, the odds just feel wrong. I understand why, lots of offensive issues for the Steelers, but if their defense keeps the total low here, that might not be as much of a concern and this is all about the Pittsburgh defense. Also, the Rams are coming off that London-Bye sequence which is proving an issue for some and went LA-Atlanta- London-California-Pittsburgh
which is tough even with a bye sandwiched in between.
Steelers won that 17-12 and dominated on defense once again, especially on the big plays, allowing LA to complete on just 1/16 third or 4th downs. With the Browns having the 4th lowest number of 3rd down conversions in the NFL , that is going to put a lot of pressure on Baker Mayfield and company on 1st and 2nd downs and you know I have some issues with the young quarterback. He did lead the Browns past the Bills on Sunday in another very close game (19-16) and my notes ahead of that are reproduced at the foot of this email, Buffalo did not play well, but missed two makeable field, goals and should have at least taken that into OT and possibly won. The Bills really struggled against the run and Mayfield was error free, that double seems unlikely two weeks in a row with the Steelers better than Buffalo versus the ground game and still improving and sure to put huge pressure on the QB. The Steelers will ask more questions themselves on the ground with RB James Conner ( see above) returning to practice this week and seemingly set to play, he has 19 touchdowns in 20 career starts, including 4 TD's and 281 yards running in two versus the Browns. Pittsburgh are 33-4-1 in the last 38 h2h meetings, with seven wins and a tie in the most recent 8, scoring 21 points + in those, which might well be enough today, given how strong defensively they have been.
I have to stick with the Steelers at these odds.
2.25 units Pittsburgh Steelers to beat the Cleveland Browns 2.35 Money Line Vegas Line/Pinnacle/Sportmarket Pro.
Good Luck.
Buffalo Bills @ Cleveland Browns (written November 10th)
Bills hosted the Redskins last week and I noted ...............
This is also similar to Miami-Bills which I previewed two weeks ago ...............
Handicap line looks huge for this game, but sometimes you just have to forget about the line to a degree and think about how this is likely to play out.
Let's start with the Bills, we have been championing them since early season and notes on three games are below the "good luck" sign off. Their sole loss was to Super Bowl favourites the Patriots and was close and, the Bills should have scored more, or conceded less in all starts to date and IMO are a "good" as opposed to average 4-1 team, if that makes sense ! Today they are coming off a bye, are well rested and get two key players back in running back Devin Singletary who missed the last three games with a hamstring injury, he is averaging 12.7 yards per carry this season and he’ll be running behind the No. 1 ranked offensive line in the NFL, also set to return this week is tight end Tyler Kroft, who’s been out all season with a foot and an ankle injury. That will hugely increase offensive options.
The Dolphins are the worst team in the NFL, lost to what might have been the second worst last week and they have lost their three starts against winning teams, by an average 32.3 points. The Bills ran up five sacks against the Titans on the road in a hostile environment, the Dolphins allowed five versus the Redskins last week, who are a whole couple of levels below the Bills and will now be without starting center Daniel Kilgore. Center is one of those hugely undervalued positions and the whole line begins with him. Last year the Dolphins were 7-9, Bills 6-10, on the final day of the season they met here in upper state NY with Buffalo winning 42-17 and the two have gone in opposite directions since.
Buffalo won 31-21 which was not enough to cover that handicap line or this, but the Bills fell out of the blocks and trailed going into the 4th quarter, did so much wrong, Miami also upped their game, but Buffalo might and should have still won by 14+ points. Line is under that today and after another sluggish start last week to the Eagles, I expect a very committed Bills team from the kick off , they have their next two and 3/4 on the road after this and they need an emphatic win .
Buffalo won that 24-9 to move onto 6-2 and the Patriots loss kept hopes of winning the AFC East alive and they would love to travel to Foxborough in Week 16 still in with a chance.
My pre-season notes on the Bills, referenced above, went a lot like this ..............
The Bills were the biggest improver in terms of fewer first downs allowed, down from 21.4 in 2017 to 18.3 (good for 4th) in 2018, also they averaged just 17.0 over the last three games and are clearly trending the right way, that already strong defense has been improved by another first round draft pick with two-time All-American defensive tackle Ed Oliver arriving from the University Of Houston. Which means that the Bills now have a defense which features first-round picks from each of the last four drafts.
In what is now a passing NFL, Buffalo allowed a league-low 179.2 yards per game through the air (#1) in 2018 and ranked #2 overall in total yards allowed and you know they will have been looking to improve on those ground numbers where they were ranked 15th, Oliver instantly helps in that regard and this is close to the #1 defense IMO. That just needed or needs some fine tuning, plus the one big upgrade, the offense needed some real help and it has arrived !
They have 7-8 new starters including a revamped OL that GM Brandon Beane openly admitted he was unhappy with last season and look to have traded really well, they will be looking to give FAR more protection to second season quarterback Josh Allen, the Bills performed well on the ground, heavily based around Allen's 631 yards rushing and eight TD's from just 12 starts and with a quartet of running backs including star names in McCoy and Gore, plus some real quality in youthful additions namely, Devin Singletary who in three years at Florida Atlantic had 4,287 rushing yards and 66 scores on the ground. The running game looks in great shape again and if the OL give Allen more time with the ball, his upfield optiuons are HUGELY improved. Arrivals include T.J. Yeldon who is a RB too, but he caught a lot of balls in Jacksonville ( 55 last season) in Jacksonville, John Brown brings his lung bursting speed from Baltimore and will give them a big threat deep, he is one of the top 5 down field specialists I spoke about in the Lions notes, Cole Beasley arrives from the Cowboys and is a different type of WR, he will work the middle and made the switch because he "wanted more freedom in his routes", he had his second best ever year in Dallas in 2018. At tight end, Tyler Kroft has signed from Cincinnati he has 7 TD's in 2017 but an injury hit 2018 and he is returning from a broken foot, but he must be close to a return as the Bills have included him on their otherwise fully fit roster, but this Bills team have left nothing to chance and they selected Dawson Knox in the third round to back up Kroft. Bills head coach Sean McDermott took the team to 9-7 in 2017 and their first playoff spot in 18 years his first at the helm and then immediately said that his team would go backwards in 2018 in order to progress, he knew what had to be done in order to trade their way to this position and it takes a brave man to not only do that, but openly tell the media and fans. Bills had a few blow outs early last season, but also scored 41+ points against divisional rivals the Jets and Dolphins and won by 21 in Minnesota.
They have the Patriots to beat, but that is why we get a HUGE price, New England are coming off another Super Bowl win and have won the AFC East for 10 straight years, but Belichick and Brady are not getting any younger, TB is now 42 for goodness sake and, as I am fond of saying ............. Where did it all go wrong for Brady, an all time great who can still play the sport he loves as well as (almost) ever in his 40's, 1.93m tall, good looking , said to be worth $200+m and married to supermodel Gisele Bundchen who has a net worth far more than him......it's a tough old life ! However, time waits for no one and the Pats lost more games (5) last season than in any regular season over the last decade, they have also lost the now retired "other" star in TE Rob Gronkowski, who I suspect will not be long retired, but he is a massive loss , especially to Brady.
The Browns were meant to be the greatest thing since sliced bread this season, well maybe not quite, but they were heavily tipped for a playoff run and more, however, they are on 2-6 and you suspect plans are already under way for 2020. Young QB Baker Mayfield has issues and the Browns are 0-3 at home and we have opposed them in each and at good odds, ahead of the most recent I wrote ..............
In my favour, I will say that odds were big and you can always take a chance at such quotes, but I will not be backing a team with Baker Mayfield at quarterback anytime soon, I have voiced some doubts about him before, but have not heeded my own words, he takes FAR too many chances, seems to panic and throw into trouble time and time again and just doesn't appear to be able to learn from his mistakes. Anyway, not for me and cold day in hell and all that !
Now the Browns have to return home on a short week to play the Seahawks, who should have learned plenty from that contest and who are not at the normal disadvantage of travelling East, as Cleveland have made the same trip. Also the Browns will be facing another strong rushing defense with the Seahawks ranked #4 to the Niners #5 and Seattle are a run first team, good on both sides of the ball and the Browns are #29 at stopping the ball on the ground, giving up 150.8 yards per game. That will decide this game, add in that Seattle are averaging exactly 5 first downs a game more and that is going to burn the clock, give Cleveland less time on the field and that will further increase pressure on Mayfield.
Prior to the second loss at home ..........
Cleveland won 23-3 and OBJ played one of those games with a trademark one handed catch ( yes, they ARE fun to watch !) and a TD, all of which served us well, but they will have to step up today, the Jets are BAD, the Titans have not exactly boosted the formline and now they have one of the top 3-4 teams in the NFL, an elite level the Brown aspire to, but are still a very long way short of. OBJ has superstar quality, but seems to turn it on when he wants, or rather when he is allowed and he has "done enough for this week". Prime time against a poor opponent feels right up his alley, this less so ! I am not as in love with the Browns as others, they are still dealing with injuries, OBJ we have discussed, Kareen Hunt is both injured and suspended (overkill) and Baker Mayfield always feels more likely to throw an interception than a TD (he is -2 for the season) and is a young man who still has much to learn.
Browns are missing several starters add in those issues and a short week and at the end of the day, they are still 1-1 and have not posted a winning season since 2007 (!) I think that this handicap is too low.
Bills can do a lot of what the Titans/Rams/Seahawks do defensively and more in some cases, they have the #3 ranked defense overall, #3 against the pass and I just wonder what kind of trouble Mayfield could get in today . Sorry to be brutal, the Browns are much stronger on paper that we have so far seen, unfortunately they have to play on grass today, they have won just 7/34 as hosts and not posted a winning season since 2007 and the losing mentality just feels too ingrained. Win or lose , I just do not understand the odds today. Bills have a fully fit roster, almost unheard of at this stage of the season, Browns have injuries............................I must be missing something !
