NFL betting tip: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Nov 18, 2018
NFL: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Jacksonville Jaguars
We have been all aboard the Steelers juggernaut and gravy train in recent weeks and 10 days ago, ahead of a Thursday game against the Panthers I wrote .............
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The 6-2 Panthers visit the 5-2-1 Steelers in the Steel city and we have a bit of a Thursday night corker !
I will put my cards on the table early and say I like the Steelers, ahead of their "must win" divisional game in Baltimore, against their biggest rival, on Sunday I wrote ............
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I previewed the reverse meeting in Week 4
This is a massive rivalry and one which the Ravens who have already lost to the Bengals can ill afford to lose, coming back from 0-2 in Divisional games is notoriously difficult.
These match up are almost always close, with six of the last seven decided by a touchdown or less and three points being the favoured margin of victory historically. My thinking when that is the case, is going with the bigger odds or better kicker and that is the Ravens in both instances, with Baltimore kicker Justin Tucker the best in the game, here at Heinz Field, which is challenging for placekickers, Tucker has made 14 of 15 field goals during his career.
Also, heartbreak can only last so long and the visitors lost 39-38 here last year after leading by 9 points late and it was a similar story in 2016. Pittsburgh do not look so good , or with quite the offensive options they had then, see Mondays notes and the Ravens have not only significantly upgraded their receiving corps, but are ranked #1 in fewest yards given up, it is only three games but that is all we have to go on and is almost 20% of the regular season !
The quick turnaround will not help and Pittsburgh have some injuries which means they will be unable to line up in the secondary as head coach Mike Tomlin wanted, or expected to. Steelers are also missing a LOT of tackles and big ones, averaging 13 per game. Hard to see the Ravens blowing a big advantage this time round, as they have not given up a second half TD this season, infact, they have been TD free in 9/12 quarters. Pittsburgh will not have seen the new Ravens WR's John Brown, Michael Crabtree, and Willie Sneadclose up yet and they could help QB Joe Flacco have a big day. Road dog wins !
That played out well with the Ravens winning 26-14, not as close as usual h2h meetings, Ravens started well, Steelers came on strong through the second quarter and looked the more likely at the half with the score tied at 14-14. Big Ben was off the pace (passer rating 72.5) and the Steelers had no running game, barely trying to keep it on the ground which was odd, ok, they were 14 points down early, but once back in it that could have gone with a more balanced offense. Steelers are 4-2-1, Ravens 5-3, a loss today might not be terminal, but it would give Baltimore the edge and a 2-0 h2h lead and the Ravens then have a bye followed by three very win-able games. I am expecting a really big Steeler showing today, they have won their last 3 ,averaging 34 points per game and with running back James Conner being named AFC offensive player of the month...........
Over the past three weeks, Conner has rushed for 367 yards and six touchdowns, while receiving for another 159 yards. Through seven games, he's rushed for 599 yards and and nine touchdowns, and he's caught 31 passes for 323 yards. Through seven games last year, Bell had rushed for 684 yards and four touchdowns and caught 33 passes for 214 yards (he finished the season with nine rushing touchdowns and two receiving TDs). It's been a breakout year for Conner, and as Bell's holdout has dragged on the Steelers have only leaned on Conner more. He's rushed for at least 100 yards in each of his past three games after doing so once in his first four.
Le'Veon who ?
Good chance that Steelers can get more going on the ground today and all the above comments from the first meeting apply, but in favour of Pittsburgh this time.
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They won 23-16 it felt easier than the scoreline suggests and for much of the game they led by two scores.
James Conner ( see above ) had a big game, with 107 yards on the ground, 56 receiving and a TD. Smith -Schuster and Antonio Brown had another TD and 120 yards , Big Ben threw for two TD's and ran for a third and you just cannot stop them when all of their offense is working, we have been here before and the Steeler juggernaut is very tough to derail once on a roll. They have now won 4 in a row with a bye week in the middle, they won 8 straight last year either side of their bye and went on a run of 7 in 2016, they just seem to build up a head of steam each season and always after they get warmed up, they are 11-2 at Heinz Field after the second week in November. They had 27 first downs last weekend which is 10 more than the Ravens had been giving up per game and they were 11/17 on 3rd and 4th downs (65%).
I have some concerns about the Panthers and feel their W/L record is flattering, they have lost to 2 of the 3 good teams they have faced, trailed by 17 points in the other, they are 5-0 at home, 1-2 on the road, and in those three starts away from Carolina they trailed by a combined 39 points at the end of the third quarter, they got out of jail once, but a LOT of gambling went their way there and you cannot give up big leads on the road to quality opposition and expect to get out of that hole too often. Infact, they have trailed at the end of the third in their last 5 road starts, by an average of 11.8 points , yes they won one, but if they played that game out 20 times, they would probably win just that once !
I just checked out some other numbers, Steelers have a 68.26% seasonal win rate under head coach Mike Tomlin after a bye week, within that they are 24-6 (80%) since 2014. Big Ben is a beast in primetime games at Heinz Field (21-4 in regular season............84%), on Thursday night he is 6-0 and in those games he has 1,730 yards, 10 touchdowns and three interceptions for a quarterback rating of 106.5.
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The Steelers won that 52-21 and could have put up any number of points. They had 45 well inside three quarters and then largely switched off, Big Ben (pictured) put on a masterclass 22 completions on 25 attempts, for 328 yards and 5 TD's , no INT and a passer rating of 158.3 which is the "perfect" score. It has only been done 72 times in history, four times by two players Peyton Manning and now Roethlisberger. To qualify, a quarterback must attempt at least 10 passes, have zero interceptions, a minimum 77.5% completion percentage, 11.88% touchdown passes percentage, and 12.5 yards per attempt (of those 72 , only 11 had 5+ touchdowns, Ben has done that twice and it puts him at the top, amongst an already elite group !) .The Steelers also had 138 yards on the ground and were well over 5 yards per carry until late when it did not matter (finishing on 4.6 ypc) and sacked Cam Newton 5 times, they were just exceptional and made the Panthers who are 6-3 look very ordinary.
Now they travel to Jacksonville to face the reeling Jaguars, who are on 3-6 for the season after losing 5 straight, they look a pale imitaion of the team who were a quarter away from the Super Bowl last year with a defense that many seasoned pundits ranked "historic" and amongst the all time best. Not sure where that has gone and they have given up 20+ points at an average of 28.6 in those five losses, scoring just 14.4 pg and three of the teams faced in that sequence have losing records. Jags probably have to go 7-0, at least 6-1 to make the post season and we have seen nothing since Week 4 to think that is even remotely possible. They have lost by 10-16 points to the three elite teams they have faced , two here on home soil and I don't see how they can stay within a TD of Pittsburgh if the real Steelers are in town and the Steeler nation, who always travel in massive numbers have taken over Jacksonville all week with many thousands here for the game. They all have one thing in mind, revenge for the 45-42 loss to the Jags in last season's post season game, if the Steelers can score 42 against that Jacksonville defense, points should not be a problem today against this one !
1.75 units Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5 points 2.11 Pinnacle/Vegas Line/Sportmarket Pro.
Good Luck.
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