NFL Wild Card game betting preview: Arizona Cardinals @ LA Rams
Jan 17, 2022
NFL: Arizona Cardinals @ LA Rams
The Cardinals are 8-1 on the road this season and across those games were 69-13 for first quarter scoring, which feels like a good place to start,given that we have already written the following twice in the last 3-4 days ........
There were more road wins than homes in the NFC and if we take the Super Bowl champs Tampa Bay and Green Bay (who are just phenomenal at Lambeau) out of the equation, only 47 of the other 112 games went the way of the home team.
I also noticed this ......... the 16 teams who led at the end of the first quarter went 13-3 and we did well over the closing weeks of the season ( apart from that one week we are not mentioning again !) with teams who were fast out of the blocks. We definitely need very good alternative reasons to back slow starting home teams asked to give up more than a field goal and even then we should think twice and probably not bet !
One of those nine away games was a trip to the Rams when they won 37-20 , but actually lost the opening quarter 7-10 , which at least shows they can come from behind here and they had a huge ground game that day (216 yards) and a balanced offense with Kyler Murray throwing for two TD's, 268 and posting a passer rating of 120.3. The Cards were hard hit by injury and COVID later in the season and went from 8-1 to finish on 11-6, but they were 4-0 away to fellow playoff teams and averaged 32.75 points in those games.
It looks likely they will have star defensive end J.J Watt and both running backs in James Conner and Chase Edmonds all back today and that lifts spirits and hopes ,plus options for Murray and Watt's return from injury is huge and they are 7-0 when he plays this season , he is the heart and soul of this defensive unit and just to have him suited up on the sidelines would be a bonus, but he expects to play. To have Conner and Edmonds both in action would be huge, they were responsible for 170 of those ground yards in the previous meeting here at SoFi and I spoke last week when the Rams kindly lost to the Niners, about LA's issues with the run ...........
The 49ers can secure their postseason spot with a win and they can focus on that and not what is happening elsewhere. The Rams really struggled against the run last week versus a Ravens offense without Lamar Jackson and the Niners have a similar ground game to Baltimore, but far superior in recent starts, ranked 13 places higher over the last three games. They will also get QB Jimmy Garoppolo back today and they have been the Rams nemesis in recent years, winning the last five meetings and 4/5 in LA (only once allowing more than 21 points). 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan gave his Rams counterpart and friend Sean McVay his first job in pro football and has won five in a row, he has bossed this match up and that can continue today. When the two met at Levi's Stadium in Week 10 , SF led by 14 points early, then pounded the ball on the ground (44 runs) and used up 39 minutes of the clock, forcing the Rams into a one dimensional response and that is the clear blueprint for victory today.
We saw a lot to concern us last week with the Rams blowing a big early lead and looking lost at times in the second half behind some very questionable play calling from head coach Sean McVay, or his staff (but the buck always stops with the HC). Finally, LA are without both starting safeties, with Taylor Rapp in concussion protocol and Jordan Fuller ruled out for the rest of the season. This is very bad, it means that someone else (Troy Reeder ?) will have to be the defensive signal caller, relaying the plays from defensive coordinator Raheem Morris and Reeder has never performed that role before. Eric Weddle has been called up from the practice squad to play safety and will get gametime according to the Rams, he is 37 yo and this is his first action in two years ! Kyler Murray must be licking his lips in anticipation !
2.5 units Arizona Cardinals Money Line @ 2.61 Vegas Line/Pinnacle.
Good luck !
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