PGA Tour: Tour Championship: Final day ..............
Sep 05, 2021
PGA Tour: Tour Championship:
Golfers are playing for some incredible "bonus" money payouts today, we are talking about (mostly) already super rich individuals and some would view the sums that are on offer ($46m) as obscene and/or unnecessary . However, it is what it is and for some, it will be a big incentive to finish as high as possible even once any winning chance has gone, especially for those 3-6 places. I am thinking of someone like Abraham Ancer, he has career earnings of "just" $13m, but $6m of that and his first ever win came this season, so it is all still new to him and in T5th overnight, some of those bonus payments must look very juicy .
Prize Money Breakdown .......
1: $15,000,000
2: $5,000,000
3: $4,000,000
4: $3,000,000
5: $2,500,000
6: $1,900,000
7: $1,300,000
8: $1,100,000
9: $950,000
10: $830,000
11. $750,000
12. $705,000
13. $660,000
14. $620,000
15. $595,000
16. $570,000
17. $550,000
18. $535,000
19. $520,000
20. $505,000
21. $490,000
22. $478,000
23: $466,000
24: $456,000
25: $445,000
26: $435,000
27. $425,000
28: $415,000
29: $405,000
30: $395,000
2: $5,000,000
3: $4,000,000
4: $3,000,000
5: $2,500,000
6: $1,900,000
7: $1,300,000
8: $1,100,000
9: $950,000
10: $830,000
11. $750,000
12. $705,000
13. $660,000
14. $620,000
15. $595,000
16. $570,000
17. $550,000
18. $535,000
19. $520,000
20. $505,000
21. $490,000
22. $478,000
23: $466,000
24: $456,000
25: $445,000
26: $435,000
27. $425,000
28: $415,000
29: $405,000
30: $395,000
Our pre tournament bets are below the "good luck" sign off.
Xander Schauffele is in a tie for 9th overnight, two strokes off 5th place . He is a very good final round player "in contention" and has equalled or bettered his R4 starting position when inside the top 10 on 19/26 occasions in the last four years, including a perfect 6/6 in 2021.
Justin Thomas is third, 5 strokes clear of the 4th placed US player, with leader Patrick Cantlay his only countryman ahead of him, albeit that also by five strokes, but the place part of any option looks "guaranteed" and no one will convince JT he cannot win this going into R4.
Lots of strange things can happen on Tour over the back nine holes on Sunday, but we look good for a profit on both players and I am hopeful that Thomas can at least make the race for the first prize interesting at some stage. JT was ranked 3-4-7-7 for R4 scoring in each year between 2017-2020 .
We have no need to bet anything today , we have plenty of interest and nothing else overly appeals in any case.
If you twisted my arm for a bet , it would be 1.25 units Abraham Ancer to finish top 5 at a general quote of 3.50. Ancer is #16 on Tour for R4 scoring, is 4/6 for top 10 performance (equalling or bettering his final position when starting R4 inside the top 10) and he has six top 10's on the last ten occasions that he has played all four rounds.
Good luck !
PGA Tour Championship:
Top 30 on the FedEx standings play this week, with "starting strokes" so the #1 ranked player coming into the event is on -10 , those ranked 26-30 are on level par, so have a lot of ground to make up. Full starting positions are below the "good luck" sign off.
This format started in 2019, that year Rory McIlroy prevailed after started from -5 and would have actually won from -3 and been in a playoff from -2 , Patrick Cantlay (-10 this week) actually started on -8 that year and finished T21st so I will not be putting on my running spikes to take the circa 4.50 on him winning !
Last year Dustin Johnson, who was playing a different game to anyone else on the planet in 2020, started at -10 and won easily.
To be honest, it is a very small sample size and no one at -2 or better is out of contention, but only one golfer out of the twenty who have tried from -1 or worse has even made the top 10.
I think a lot has to do with mindset and if you can just put the start , or handicap to one side and just play the course, especially if East Lake suits, then you are part way there. I would just view this as a five round tournament and whatever my position was on Thursday morning, there are four rounds to play and I am within 10 strokes (max) of the lead.
Xander Schauffele just loves the place, he won on his debut here in 2017, was 7th the following year, 2nd from a -4 start in 2019 and 2nd again last year from -3. This time round he is -2 , but I don't think it is enough to keep him out of contention and I expect him to be coming on very strong through Saturday and Sunday.
Justin Thomas has been 6-2-7-3-2 on his five visits here , he did start on -10 in 2019 and in third (-7) last year, but Rory and Dustin were not losing to anyone those years and he went close . JT has never finished lower than 7th at East Lake whatever format is being used and I expect that trend to continue . He is T4th currently amongst the home based (US) players and it is that market I am interested in, with leader Cantlay already blowing a big advantage here two years ago (see above) and having often spoken of second placed Bryson DeChambeau being much better from off the pace . JT went close at the Northern Trust last week when my notes included ...........
Justin Thomas is two strokes back in a tie for 4th and he is a golfer I rarely oppose on Sunday in contention. At just 28 years of age JT is a 14 time PGA tour winner and four of those have come in the month of August and three later in the year and he comes on strong when others are already planning their vacation, or looking forward to some Thanksgiving turkey .He is a multiple winner every year since 2017, but has only won once so far in 2021 and another is overdue !
A unique competition , with a tiny field, including 10 who I feel are out of contention and two players who are very well suited to East Lake.
3 units Xander Schauffele to finish top 10 @ 2.10-2.25 general quote.
1 unit Xander Schauffele to finish top 5 @ 4.50-5.0 general quote.
2 units each way (4 staked total) Top US player @ 12.0-13.0 general quote 1/5 odds 123 ...........best alternative 1.5 units each way outright @19.0 ,1/5 odds 1-5 places.
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