I looked at seven games in today's newsletter putting up seven bets in total, but passing on one game, you can see notes on that and one other below.

 

It is going to be even busier tomorrow with eight games currently on the clubgowi "short list " !

 

 

 

These two are 7 and 9 points respectively above the 7th placed team, 9 and 7 adrift of the automatic promotion places.

 

With only 15 points left to play for, both look very secure for top 6, but very difficult for Fulham to break into the top two and close to impossible for Forest. There is also a good chance that these two will meet in the postseason, which adds something else to the mix. The team that finishes 3rd will meet the 6th placed team over two legs in the playoffs, that opponent is going to have to battle down to the wire to claim the final spot and would be favoured opposition, so that is definitely a target too. I see Fulham as the better team, but they are not as strong as in their last two seasons in the Championship (promoted in one) and they remain without top scorer Aleksandar Motrovic today, as he sees out his three game suspension, they did win both in his absence, but not without a struggle.

 

ITB gives Fulham a net edge of +51 for the season, +17 for the last 12 games, but only Luton of the teams playing today have created fewer chances over the last three starts than the London side. I have some well documented issues with the negative mindset of Forest head coach Sabri Lamouchi, but he is better tactically than his Fulham counterpart Scott Parker. Interesting game and we will have more idea how these two will approach the remaining regular season games after today, but I have to pass.

 

 

Watford have taken just a single point from their last five starts and scored only two goals, but sitting above the drop zone by just one point their need is great and they could hardly ask more than a home game with City who are a further six points back and who have scored just six away goals all season, losing 12 times on the road. The visitors have also not scored in five league starts, all defeats, three were at home and each to teams in the bottom half of the table . The Hornets actually won the reverse fixture at Carrow Road 2-0 we sided with them for that and my lengthy notes included the following ........

 

 

Ahead of the City loss to Southampton in their first restart game I noted ..........

 

 

They never addressed the issue, in fact they compounded it and are now paying the price. Looking to protect a weak backline which has not worked and come at a cost offensively.

 

Watford have struggled but their last three home games include a 1-1 draw with Leicester City and 3-0 (!!) defeat of Liverpool and if they show even 50% of what they did in the latter, they should ease home today.