Premier League betting tip: Aston Villa- Everton
Sep 18, 2021
Premier League: Aston Villa- Everton
Everton once again took a while to get going on Monday, but came from behind to beat Burnley 3-1 and might have scored more goals eventually ..................
I think this game is quite interesting as it pits two teams who have been happy to sit back, recording the lowest possession stats through the opening three games, but playing a very direct style once each has the ball.
I discussed both ahead of Matchday 1, the Clarets when they entertained Brighton ..............
Burnley were one of only two Premier league teams to lose every 15 minutes split (0-15,16-30 etc) last season and really, only the fact that the bottom 3 were so very bad, prevented them from being in a desperate end of season survival race. Their total of 39 points was only two worse than Brighton and was right on their xP number, but the Clarets struggle to impose themselves at Turf Moor nowadays and it is no longer the tough fortress it once was, they have won just 5/24 as host, scoring a lowly 19 goals. They have a very old squad ( see youth notes below........ Burnley have an average age of 30.0 !) and are very reliant on their CB partnership of JamesTarkowski, who is once again rumoured to leave and Ben Mee and we talked several times last season about how vital he is, he missed 14 games last season and is not getting any younger and head coach Sean Dyche is in the final year of his contract.
They led at the break but lost 2-1 and they have subsequently lost 2-0 at Anfield and drawn 1-1 at home to Leeds United and they really only deserved something from the latter, which is what they got, so hard to argue with anything so far. They will not panic to only have one point on board,as that has become the norm for them and they picked up just two from their first seven starts in 20/21, 5 from 5 in 19/20 and one from five in 18/19 and it usually takes a month or so before they find their feet. However, you do wonder how long that can continue and it is a very tough league in which to continually make up ground.
We sided with the Toffees for their home game with Southampton..........
Everton are one of those mid table teams in terms of xP from last season and forecast points who would not need much to kick on for a top 6-7 push and that is kind of where they expect to be, but that spot they have long held, has been taken by Leicester City. The Toffees have some real quality in the squad , but feel disjointed at times and the loss of Carlo Ancelotti feels huge, he has been replaced by Rafael Benitez who is adored on Merseyside, just not in the blue half of the city ! The second of his two manager of the year awards were 16 years ago and he has not won anything since the 2014 Coppa Italia and recent appointments have been more about bringing a steady hand and he has not been given anything to spend at Goodison so far.
They came from behind to win that 3-1, then drew 2-2 with Leeds United and won 2-0 against Brighton, both on the road. The latter makes good reading as the Seagulls have won their other three games and conceded just one goal in the process. Rafa is good tactically and the signings of Andros Townsend and Demari Gray for a combined £1.8m look inspired, but no real money was spent and the squad looked threadbare at Brighton, where only 8 subs were named (only two used), 2 of which were goalkeepers (!) and three left wingbacks !
Rafa will have more options tonight, but injuries through the season are going to hurt this group, however, I don't think we need to concern ourselves with that today. Burnley are always resolute and tough to break down, but Brighton and Liverpool managed to score twice and Leeds should have done the same, Everton have scored at least twice in all four competitive outings for Rafa and going joint top with the win, level on points with their cross town neighbours is a big incentive.
Villa have struggled a little so far and have conceded 7 goals in their four starts, the most outside the bottom five and created little in their last home game, a 1-1 draw with Brentford, after which I wrote ..................
Brentford were the better team and restricted Villa to two attempts in over 80 minutes of football, one from long range from which they scored, they had just 5 attempts ITB and two came very late from Ollie Watkins (see above) after he was introduced off the bench.
Last week they went to Chelsea and lost 3-0, they played better and created far more, but were very wasteful in front of goal and they are still adjusting to life after Jack Grealish. Ollie Watkins ( a brand new first time dad this week .......congratulions !) and Danny Ings are still forging a partnership and might need longer to fully gel and Villa appear to be switching to a 2 up top, which is definitely what they played at Stamford Bridge and I am not sure when they, or head coach Dean Smith (never at Brentford) last did so on a regular basis. Everton with the draw no bet option.
Ollie is pictured with Brentford's most famous supporter, Woody .
1.75 units Everton level ball 2.30 asian line.
Good luck !
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