Premier League betting tip: Liverpool- Stoke City
Apr 28, 2018
Premier League: Liverpool- Stoke City
Notes on Liverpool's 5-2 midweek home win over AS Roma are reproduced under the "good luck" sign off. The Reds won 5-2 and are in good shape ahead of the semi final second leg scheduled for this coming Wednesday. Two things, they will be mindful of that and the home threat the Romans hold which we discussed below, but they would surely like to keep the momentum high and unbeaten home record intact and not travel with a loss/poor result against what looks likely to very shortly be a second tier team. Also, Pool cannot really help themselves, they do get sucked forward by the crowd at Anfield, are far happier on the front foot and are very free scoring (80 in the league, a total only bettered by champions City, at the rate of 2.41 per home game), but have conceded the most of the top 5.
City have conceded a PL high 37 away goals, posting a 1-6-10 record, they are four points from safety (effectively 5 with goal difference) and need to win at least two of their remaining three to give themselves a chance of survival. They have scored in their last three starts, two versus top 7 teams and I favour them to do so again today, but they do not have the quality at the back to stop Liverpool scoring multi goals (2+) and I will again go with the home win with both teams scoring. Hosts will rotate of course, but a great opportunity for some to stake a claim to start more regularly or more likely, put themselves in the shop window.
1.5 units Liverpool to win and both teams to score 2.70-2.80 general quote.
Good Luck.
Liverpool - AS Roma
I sided with Pool at home to Manchester City in the last 8 first leg .............
Different dynamic tonight of course, but these two met here at Anfield in mid January when my notes went a lot like this ..........
My notes on Liverpool's FA Cup tie with Everton last week included .......
Liverpool got a little breathing space in the race for a top four finish in the Premier League with both "chasers", the North London pair, dropping points this midweek. That will be their domestic priority, they also have the small matter of the Champions League and a win-able last 16 tie with Porto to look forward to next month. Do they need further involvement in this ? They surrended quite tamely in their first round in the League Cup, this is different, in that they are at Anfield against their local rival, but they have only gone beyond R5 in this comeptition twice in 11 campaigns and the truth is that since the Anfield dynasty of coaches dried up, their FA Cup interest has largely gone with it. Jurgen Klopp says otherwise, but he knows where his priorities lie . He will be without both POTY and top scorer Mohamed Salah and playmaker Philippe Coutinho (35 goals and 17 assists between them in the Premier and Champions League), the latter seems sure to be on his way to Barcelona. World record defensive signing Virgil van Dijk will be expected to make his debut, Loris Karius will start in goal and whilst the addition of VVD will help masssively, it might take a game or two for him to settle in and defensively, which is not their strong point, hence breaking the bank to sign the central defender, they might be a little at sea today. They have played just seven domestic games without a goal contribution from Salah, won two, both by a single goal.
VVD scored the winner in his debut, with Pool again narrowly winning without Salah( see above), he returns today and the hosts should be well rested and prepared for this after a nine day break. City played a day later in the FA Cup and had a midweek home League Cup semi with Bristol City, which was very hard fought, they did rotate heavily for that, but have played twice as a club since the Reds last took to the field and if nothing else, it would have given the hosts longer to prepare for the league leaders. Liverpool are unbeaten at home, conceding just four goals here and City have struggled at Anfield, not winning in 16 visits since 2003. Of course, this will be their best chance in a very long while, but the hosts will, in addition to the win which could take them third, be out for some revenge after losing the reverse fixture 5-0 back in September, that was an odd one, the Reds were the better team for 30 + minutes, should have led, then fell behind and had Sadio Mane sent off and it was then game over. I have long had this in mind as the day that City might finally lose, they will hold at least a 15 point advantage until tomorrow regardless of how this plays out , their need or motivation against other clubs chasing top 4 cannot be as high and road league games have started to become hard work and they should have lost at Crystal Palace on their most recent away day.
Pool won a thrilling contest 4-3 and for much of that game and the opening exchanges at the Etihad despite the ultimately heavy defeat they were the better team and at their best Tottenham and Liverpool can compete with anyone in Europe, but cannot produce it week in week out. Also, and we have spoken of this often in the past, Anfield has a very special atmosphere on these European nights when it feels like not just the Kop but ghosts of previous campaigns are willing team and ball forward and they are unbeaten here in 14 CL ties. City have a poor record in this fixture (6-4-0 last ten in the Premier League with the Reds scoring 2+ in 7/9) and would, I suspect, snatch a score draw right now if one were offered. I think the best value by far is for Liverpool to score "over" 1.5 goals @ a general quote of 2.20 (bigger in places) and if you can find that, I would suggest 1.75 units. Top alternative......
Pool won that 3-0 and when things click for them at Anfield and they are in tandem with the home crowd on a european night, they really are an unstoppable force.
Roma also featured heavily in the last eight and we backed them to score in Barcelona and in two markets for the second leg where they were trying to overcome a 4-1 loss on the road and my notes included ............
Roma were better than the scoreline from last week indicates and the tie could easily still be in the balance , the hosts also get Radja Nainggolan back tonight and are a better team when he plays. Sergio Busquets remains a doubt , he has been used sparingly over the last month and would be a loss for Barce if he could play no part. Hosts have not conceded in four home CL games this season, winning three and have faced Chelsea, Atletico and Shakhtar and we saw how many problems the London side caused Barcelona. Having said that, Roma have to approach this differently and cannot sit back for too long and will give the visitors more space than usual, but any value has to be with the home side for me.
Roma won 3-0 and knocked Barcelona out of the competition and the goals scored and a 5th consecutive home clean sheet in the competition will have sent alarm bells ringing at the three remaining opponents in the last four, but Roma were still the dream draw and Liverpool delighted with the match up. However, they will want a lead, Roma an away goal and I think there is every chance that both will get that.
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