Premier League betting tips: Arsenal - Crystal Palace // Cardiff City- Liverpool
Apr 21, 2019
Premier League:
Arsenal - Crystal Palace
Cardiff City- Liverpool
Huge games for the two Big 6 teams. Arsenal will move up to third and above Tottenham their biggest rival with the win , that is always an extra incentive for them, but doubly so after all the midweek headlines were stolen by their neighbour. The Gunners have won 6/7 starts and also kept six clean sheets in those, but I see the value lying elsewhere today. Firstly they played on Thursday and they have conceded in 5/8 of the second games after a Thursday-Sunday turnaround and Palace have scored in 8/9 games versus Arsenal, including 3/4 here at the Emirates, despite losing 7 of those. The visitors are nice and relaxed, safe from any relegation concerns on 39 points with the best goal difference in the bottom 10. They have not played for a week, since losing 3-1 to Manchester City last Sunday ahead of which my notes included .......
Palace made the notes ahead of a trip to Tottenham last week (2-0 loss) ahead of which I spoke about them possibly being more interested in a weekend game at Newcastle..........
Palace are the only one of the three away teams who have a weekend league fixture, playing at Newcastle United on Saturday, that is a long journey and very quick turnaround and it is fairly unusual to play Wednesday-Saturday in the Premier League and the Eagles have lost 7/8 on the last four occasions that they have. This is a derby and a big high profile game, but they will surely see the trip up North as more win-able and will not want to give everything tonight chasing a lost cause (once it is lost) and leave nothing for the weekend. This is so high profile because it marks the opening of Spurs brand new stadium, it has been a long time coming but seems well worth the wait and this is a big day for club and supporters alike.
They beat the Magpies 1-0 and are now on 39 points and "safe" and, in stark contrast to City, they can relax and even enjoy today, the Eagles are decent enough when things click , in terms of expected points they should have another six on board, highlighting their real abilities and they get great support here at Selhurst Park , which will be jumping as usual . Also, Palace will be buoyed and have confidence boosted by a 3-2 win at the Etihad earlier in the year and that will ensure there is no fear factor from them and how many bottom half of the table teams have the chance to do the double over City ?
Palace improved as the game progressed and did not give up at 0-2 , which helps our purposes today.
Liverpool need all three points to go back to the top of the Premier League and put some additional pressure on Manchester City, who play their game in hand in midweek, the derby at Old Trafford, anything less than a win is unthinkable and they have refound their goal scoring form with 22 in their last 8 starts (all wins), however the did concede in 6 of those and Cardiff are fighting for survival and sit three points from survival. They do have a poor record against Big 6 opponents, something I touched upon ahead of a visit from Chelsea last month ............
City are 5 points adrift of safety and Burnley, with two games in hand, as tough as this fixture is, 20 of their 28 points have come in South Wales and with just two home games remaining after today ( one is Liverpool) they surely have to gamble for the three points and Chelsea should get more space to exploit in this fixture than they would, had it been played a month ago. The Blues arrive in 6th, the outsider of four in what they hope willl remain a race for two Champions League spots by Tottenham losing at Liverpool today. Even victory will not change that outsider status, but the alternative will leave them cast adrift, all their eggs in the Europa League basket and an unacceptable situation. So, we have two teams only playing for the win and this should be open and get very stretched at some stage. City and "marmite" head coach Neil Warnock have to throw caution to the wind, which is totally alien to club and man without key central defender Sol Bamba and Calum Paterson, who have both been lost to season ending injuries.Versatile Paterson can play multi positions and is another big loss, he has four goals in a team who do not score many and the only start both he and Bamba have missed was a 5-0 home defeat to Manchester City. Old jokes are the best and the Bluebirds were lucky to score nil that day, the visitors might have had 8 ( "winning" attempts 21-2 and inside the box 18-2 !). they also missed three big chances, hit the woodwork, were denied by 5 saves and had almost 600 passes (total and completed) more than Cardiff. In terms of player rankings, every visitor was ranked superior to the best home performer. City are 0-0-8 against big 6 teams this season with a 27-6 goal difference and have shipped 16 goals in the four home games in that sequence.
City upped their game that day and were unfortunate to lose 2-1, a few days later they were a no show at the Etihad losing 2-0 and creating little. So, 0-0-10 ve Big 6, with a 31-7 goal difference, but they played well enough against the Blues and are at home again today and have nothing to lose by going for this, they scored in the game at Anfield and at home to Chelsea, United and the Gunners, hard to see beyond the away win, but 1-3/1-4 feels about correct and Pool have conceded in 3/5 away starts (all wins) to bottom six teams, including in their last two road games (Fulham and Southampton).
2 units Arsenal to win and both teams to score 2.70-2.80 general quote.
1.75 units Liverpool to win and both teams to score 2.75-3.0 general quote.
Good Luck.
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