Premier League: Big 2 clash at lunchtime at the Etihad.........
Mar 31, 2023
EPL: Manchester City- Liverpool
Huge game, one you suspect that City have to win if they are going to chase down the Gunners and where defeat could leave Liverpool well off top 4 pace. These two are obviously great rivals and came into this campaign expecting to go toe to toe yet again for the title, but Liverpool did not do their part and for much of this season have been just awful defensively and despite some very good last six game numbers, those issues have been cruelly exposed often and remain bubbling under the surface at all times. Having said that, they are very talented offensively and it looks like their full array of attacking options will be available for the first time in many months today. That is good as they will doubtless need to score twice to get a result here and that is a bet we have done incredibly well with in this fixture and most recently when the two met here in the League Cup just before Christmas and those notes are reproduced at the foot of this email.
CB Nathan Ake scored the winner in that game (3-2) and also twice for Netherlands in midweek and he is not without interest today should he make the starting line up, given Liverpool have terrible problems defending corners or free kicks into their box. He is quoted @ 11.0-13.0 in anytime goalscorer market and that feels generous.
2.25 units Liverpool to score "over" 1.5 goals 3.25 general quote.
clubgowi Glossary:
ITB= inside the box attempts, Goal of the month competitions usually feature several long range contenders and we always remember those 30 yard bullets into the top corner, but only 12.87% of Premier League goals over the last three seasons have been scored from outside the box , good coaches are known to encourage players to look for better scoring opportunities and it is usually only supporters urging "shoooooot" everytime the goal is within sight, even if there are 20 players between ball and net .
XG= expected goals.
XGF= expected goals for.
XGA = expected goals against.
XGD = expected goal difference.
XP = expected points.
BC = big scoring chance.
Good luck!
EFL Cup: Manchester City- Liverpool (written December 22nd)
Sky must have been delighted when this fixture popped out of the hat and it is the ideal game to herald next week's return of EPL action.
The two met in back to back games in April last season, the first here at the Etihad and the second in the FA Cup at Wembley and in both I went with Liverpool to score twice at nice odds, notes on both included within the latter.........
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These two met at the Etihad last weekend and I wrote ...........
Goodness knows what the viewing figures will be like for this, but it has caught the public's imagination and few football fans will not be glued to their television screens come 16:30 .
Seven rounds to play after today and City currently hold a one point advantage, so they will be in a very strong position with the win, Liverpool need something you feel to keep the race alive.
In midweek, ahead of their Champions League fixtures I wrote ............
This is usually when I trot out my well used phrase of the upcoming weekend league meeting at the Etihad between City and Liverpool, hanging over tonight's games like the Sword of Damocles ( I was both obsessed and fearful of that tale as a young child). I suppose it is true to a degree, as both teams would like to get the hard work of these two legged ties done and dusted this evening, allowing them to fully focus on what could be an EPL title decider, rather than going into it with one eye on the second leg which is being played next midweek. However, whilst I would never expect either club to admit it, I strongly suspect that once again it is all about winning a first ever Champions League for City, something which has become their Holy Grail for many tears and for six time European champions Liverpool, if forced to choose, it would be just a second league title in 32 years, with that 2019/20 success disrupted , some might say blighted by COVID. The two giants of English football will, of course, be trying to win both tournaments and each would be helped to that end by a resounding win this evening, it is just that I feel the two clubs have different priorities.
I will stick with that thinking and also, Liverpool did get their tie pretty much done and dusted, whereas City have just a one goal advantage to take to Madrid in midweek and have to give more consideration to that. The Reds have scored in 8/9 visits to the Etihad and in 9/10 h2h meetings at Anfield, scoring 2+ goals in 9 of those 17 games. On the road in the EPL they have scored 2+ goals in 15/18 starts, 3+ in nine of those. In the CL they have scored 2+ in 12 of 18 away starts, including all five games played this season. City have conceded four in hehir last two home league starts, including three to Spurs who proved that the Sky Blues can be got at and this is something we have discussed a lot in the last five years or so, that when opponents are brave (and can get the ball !!) they have success versus City. I am tempted by big odds about Liverpool, when do we ever see quotes like that for them (?), but also really like the odds about them scoring twice as "that is what they do on the road" and if they did so in a 2-2 draw for example, I don't think that City would be too unhappy .
It did indeed finish 2-2 and few watchers will have been disappointed with the entertainment produced. The title race is still on, both qualified for the last four of the Champions League on Wednesday and can only now meet in the final and they face off again today in yet another competition. This time it is at the neutral venue of Wembley and once again, it is difficult not to see goals, five of the last six h2h meetings have now produced 4+ goals and the Liverpool defence looked vulnerable in their two games in the last week, giving up 5 goals and City can always cut loose, but similarly, no one looks like keeping the Reds out for too long and they had a FAR less gruelling game in midweek and no travel.
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They won that 3-2 and seven of the last nine h2h meetings have produced 4+ goals and the Reds have scored 2+ in five of those .
When I updated the EPL stats last week I noted ..........
Man City 10.0 / 9.1, 15-14, 75-32, 10.7
Liverpool 14.2 / 11.5 , 23-20,
Four columns, they are , in order, xG, BC's, ITB attempts, average (current) league position of the opponent faced. Good numbers in relation to league placing are highlighted in blue type, poor numbers in red.
There are a few things to give cause for concern in the Manchester City numbers and they have had that huge number of players away at the World Cup too. Their stats are a little skewed by the statistical tonking they got from Brentford at the Etihad ahead of the break, it might only have been 2-1 to the mighty Bees, but they were 6-1 for BC's (it was away to City for goodness sake!) and a net +1.5 xGD and the West London side might easily have scored 4+ goals. The Bees ITB numbers are not great though and they have some issues with injury and other matters which we can discuss another day.
The Liverpool stats are mad and right across the board, creating more than anyone, but conceding chances like a bottom 2-3 side, with over 4.0 xG's , 7 BC's and 20 ITB attempts per game!
City look vulnerable and had 16 players at the WC, Liverpool are both creating and giving up chances for fun.
We should see goals and best value surely to stick with Liverpool to score twice again.
2.25 units Liverpool to score "over" 1.5 goals 2.77 asian line.
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