Premier League: Blues to edge another tight game ...........
Dec 04, 2021
Premier League:
Southampton- Brighton
West Ham United- Chelsea
Ahead of Brighton's trip to play the Hammers in midweek I wrote ......
West Ham have served us well enough on the road with wins at Everton and Aston Villa, but lost their last two away games, at Wolves and Manchester City, where they created just a combined 0.69 xGF and I do wonder if their squad is big/deep enough to handle a few injuries and European football.Having said that, they did score three in a win over Liverpool in their last home start, albeit from just an xGF of 1.20 and only three attempts on target.
The visitors have started to struggle to put the ball in the net once again and that is a long term issue, but they are creating and should have scored an additional 4-5 goals. They like the London Stadium and have scored 10 goals on their last four visits, through which they are unbeaten. Hammers at a low point and numbers heading downwards, Brighton unable to score , but tight at the back , especially on the road ( only Chelsea and Man City have conceded fewer away from home) and at least creating chances and in a ground they like.
United scored very early, Brighton equalised late and that was probably a fair result in a close game between two of the top flight's better teams outside of the Big 4/6. The Seagulls are back on the road today, but only for the short trip along the coast to Southampton. The home side have taken just one point from their last three starts and conceded 8 goals, they tried an ill fated formation change/experiment at Anfield of all places in the middle of those games, but went back to 4-4-2 against Leicester City in midweek. Head coach Ralf Hasenhüttl clearly felt that wasn't working previously and they conceded twice in a 2-2 home draw with the Foxes and might have given up (or scored ) another goal in a wide open encounter. Saints have won three games (all against teams in the bottom six when they faced them) and have played at relegation level for the last 12 months, that is 41 games, just 9 wins and a 39-71 goal difference, which equates to 35 points for a season. Brighton are well organised and comfortable on the road, they have not lost in any of their four Premier League visits to St Mary's and won 2-1 here back in March.
Things do not get any easier for the Hammers as they host leaders Chelsea today, who have won 6/7 away starts conceding just two goals, however, the Blues should have given up 9 goals (xP) and have both ridden their luck and are not playing at early season levels. They struggled past Watford 2-1 at Vicarage Road on Wednesday and stats of BC's 1-1 , ITB 6-6 and xG 0.9-0.9 highlight how very tight that game was. Having said that, they do tend to find a way to get the result under Thomas Tuchel and will want the win to ensure they stay top of the table. The last seven h2h meetings in East London have been decided by a maximum one goal, one draw and three wins each. United under David Moyes are tough to beat heavily and it is 31 starts since they lost by more than a single goal, the nine single goal defeats in that sequence, including one to Chelsea and five to Big 4 opponents and a 6th is well priced today.
2 units Brighton level ball 2.22 asian line.
1.75 units Chelsea to win by exactly one goal 3.70 asian line.......bigger in a few places.
Good luck !
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