You only got to see part of yesterday's subscriber notes , but you can read the entire newsletter content below and that includes my Premier League pre season notes which are, of course, still "active".  The Champions League and Audi Cup matches played out well, with all four selections winning at odds of 2.11, 2.25, 2.29 and 3.25, although that is not really the point of reproducing samples on here, which is to give you an insight as to what subscribers see on a day to day basis. Don't worry, there are plenty of losing selections too !

 

We are going to be very active in terms of posting on here for a week or two, so good reason to check back on a regular basis, but remember, the one off, low cost subscription offer expires at midnight on Friday.......

 

 

Tuesday August 4th

 

Next newsletter will be sent at the standard time of 10.00 (UK) on Wednesday.

 

UEFA Champions League:

 

APOEL- FC Midtjylland (2-1 first leg)
 

Molde- Dinamo Zagreb (1-1)
 

Ajax- Rapid Wien (2-2)
 

AS Monaco- Young Boys (3-1)
 

 

These are Qualifying Round 3 second leg ties, all teams are just three matches away from the group stage of the competition and we discussed how lucrative that was ahead of the second round of CL games........... all teams competing this week are looking for the holy grail, which in footballing terms is the Champions League group stage. Four of the teams who played at this stage made it through last year......Maribor, Malmo, BATE and Ludogorets, all are looking to repeat that feat and believe me, motivation will be even bigger this time round with a massive jump in prize money on offer, this year, just a spot in the group stage is worth 12m €, winning a match would earn 1.5m € and even a point 0.5m €.

That means you could finish bottom of your group with four points like the Bulgarian side Ludogorets did last year and collect a cool 14m €, that is the real attraction of Champions League football and is the equivalent for the "minnows" ( no offence to any, as they are all big clubs domestically), of Real, Barce or Bayern winning the competition.

 

The "problem" today, at least for me, is that all four home teams took a big step towards the next stage by either winning on the road in the first leg, or coming away with a score draw, which means that they can progress today without winning and with such a massive prize on offer, all will surely adopt a cautious approach. I guess Monaco would be less worried than the other seven clubs about the money, but as a big name and former finalist in the competition, they will be no less motivated to get the job done. Of course, that could all work in our favour, as we can get handicap starts on three of the away teams and that is always worth a second look when the home side doesn't need to win.
 

FC Midtjylland initially caught my eye, a late goal in the second leg at least gave them a chance and they created quite a lot of chances in that game after the break, but they have very little experience at this level of competition, the hosts are old hands and are heavily favoured by the weather in Cyprus and today the temperature will hit 42 degrees + and with the humidity will feel closer to 50 ! It will drop a little come kick off, but still be high 30's and with the Danes having to press from the start, this is going to be a very long 90 minutes for the visitors.
 

I am a little tempted by Rapid given that they fought back a man down to claim a share of the spoils in the first leg, ending the match a little stronger even after the dismissal of Stefan Schwab, who will, of course, be suspended this evening. That was not a total surprise as they should be well ahead in terms of match fitness, being two games into their new domestic season, they have received a major confidence boost since, with a 2-1 road win over title favourites FC Salzburg at the weekend and they have been scoring freely with 12 goals in four competitive starts. Ajax have yet to start their Eredivisie campaign, they begin that with a tough trip to AZ Alkmaar at the weekend and despite the importance of the match this evening, will probably have half an eye on that and a solid start to their domestic season after finishing a whopping 17 points adrift of champions PSV last season. The hosts have as much european experience as a club as anyone apart from the modern giants of the game and know full well that 0-0/1-1 is worth the same as 3-0 in terms of progression.
 

Young Boys make the trip to Monaco already trailing by two goals, but it is still a big game for them against a high profile opponent and they are under no pressure and having followed them in the Europa League last season, we know full well how they will approch this and it is not with their tail between their legs and with damage limitation in mind. After their 4-1 home loss to Everton in the Europa League last season, I wrote this ahead of the return leg at Goodison .....
 

The visitors are concerened about the artificial playing surface at the Stade du Suisse in Berne, Young Boys laid it last summer and are a perfect 5/5 on it in Europe, with four clean sheets including 2-0 defeats of Sparta Prague and Napoli. It clearly gives them an edge, even if much of it is only in the minds of opponents, the Toffees have practiced this week on a similar surface at Widnes, but similar is not the same and if it does not react in similar fashion, it is only going to complicate matters. Young Boys are the closest challengers to Basle this season and have averaged 2.1 goals per game at home in Super League. 2.6 gpg in those five Europa League ties.They use the surface to play to their strengths, with a very well organised young team, who play at high energy and keep their shape, or perhaps it is that they have adapted their style to the surface, either way, this looks a big ask for Everton for whom the goals have dried up, just one in four starts. The visitors will be confident of a comfortable win at Goodison in the return leg and perhaps happy to come through this without injury and within a goal of Young Boys, especially if that includes a road goal for them.

That finished in a massive 4-1 win for the Toffees and we touched upon the game in the preview for their home game with Leicester City on Sunday ....

Quick turnaround for Everton who played in Berne on Thursday night, but they will be buoyed by the result there and the hat-trick for Romelu Lukaku, who has had a dry spell in the league, with only one goal in eleven starts. That was a wide open encounter and there were chances at both ends and "issues" with three of the Everton goals, which another set of officials might not have allowed. It could easily have ended 4-6 something like that and whilst I am not expecting this to be as gung ho, I do feel we will see goals.

That ended 2-2 which was ideal for us, there could have again been 6-7 goals in that game and despite being involved in a lot of low scoring encounters, Everton will respond when teams are prepared to go toe to toe and open up. This tie is over, hosts face two road games inside the next week, a trip to a hurt and wounded Arsenal on Sunday and to Stoke City on Wednesday, just six points above the drop zone, failure to pick up something from those is going to make for an uncomfortable end to the season. Tim Howard looked very rusty and far from his best at the weekend, he will keep his place, there will be rotation elsewhere, the hosts look vulnerable at the back at the visitors can only play one way which is on the front foot. They will come looking to restore some pride and one or two players will be out to impress with personal ambitions in mind. Surely goals .
 

That ended 3-1 and could easily have been 5-3, Young Boys only play one way and two down, can hardly come with any change in mindset. Monaco do have the short trip to Nice for their league opener on Saturday and will be mindful of their slow domestic start last season, when they were 14 points adrift of first place at the end of November and effectively out of the title race at that stage, we also know that they tend to have a defensive first attitude in most games, but surely even they will want to make the most of the huge gaps that the visitors will leave and that we will see goals in this game.
 

I will opt for .........

 

1.25 units Rapid Wien +0.5 ball 2.11 asian line/Sportmarket.

 

1.25 units Monaco-Young Boys "over" 3 goals 2.29 asian line/Sportmarket.

 

If you want a slightly more adventurous selection, Rapid will probably need to score twice to keep hopes alive, they did so in the first leg and in all four starts to date, a lot of their supporters have made the trip (circa 2,500) so the visitors will as a minimum want to keep battling until the end and 3.20 + for Rapid Wien to score two or more ( over 1.5 goals) offers a little value ( 1 unit) in my opinion.

 

 

Audi Cup: Real Madrid - Tottenham Hotspur

 

No Karim Benzema or Cristiano Ronaldo in the Real Madrid squad, but still plenty of quality and they have claimed to be looking to win this tournament and Rafa Benitez will definitely want to start his European reign at Los Blancos with a win. His team already have a 4-1 defeat of Manchester City (Melbourne) in pre season to their name and a second win over another EPL side will suit Rafa very well. The timing of this game heavily favours the Spanish giants, as the tournament is played over two days, with the winner of this game meeting the victor of the Bayern- AC Milan game and the two losers also facing off, with those maches being played tomorrow. With Spurs starting their EPL campiagn on Saturday LUNCHTIME, there is no way they can give of their best in both matches and probably not in either. They have arrived with only one out and out striker in Harry Kane and to say that any injury to him would be a disaster is a major understatement. They did add to their defensive options in the summer, but look threadbare, Kane aside, in the striking department and simply have to bring someone in asap , but at present, every potential move is being thwarted.

All teams have brought big squads with them, but Tottenham are short of experience, especially in key offensive areas and will be looking to blood some youngsters, rotate heavily, with 12.45 Saturday in mind and also, as much as possible, protect Kane. I have to favour Real and even short of a couple of their superstars, this could get nasty, Gareth Bale will surely fancy this against his former club and the chance to shine in Ronaldo's absence, especially with Manchester United still courting him, is too much to resist.
 

 

Tottenham Hotspur: Michel Vorm, Hugo Lloris, Luke McGee, Kieran Trippier, Kyle Walker, Danny Rose, Ben Davies, Eric Dier, Federico Fazio, Toby Alderweireld, Kevin Wimmer, Jan Vertonghen, Nabil Bentaleb, Ryan Mason, Harry Winks, Dele Alli, Mousa Dembele, Tom Carroll, Josh Onomah,Christian Eriksen, Erik Lamela, Nacer Chadli, Harry Kane.

 

Premier League Outright:

 

It is over 20 years since a non "big 4" club  last won the Premier League, that was Blackburn Rovers and we can rule them out this season as they are looking at a mid table finish in the Championship ! In that period, Manchester United (11), Chelsea (4), Arsenal (3) and Manchester City (2) have not only hoovered up the 20 titles, but have taken at least three of the top four places in each of the last 13 seasons. It is very hard or anyone outside the "cartel"to break into the top three nowadays, let alone challenge for the title and only Liverpool have managed to do so over the last dozen years. If any team is to do so this season, it is most likely to again be them, but they do not have the depth of the others and have sold prize assests for the second year running. Something that has changed in recent years is that it has become increasingly harder to defend the PL title and no one has done so since Manchester United in 2009 and for my money, that makes Chelsea poor value at circa 2.50-2.75 to repeat.
 

After a strong start they were not put under any real pressure last season, only City got close and briefly looked like making it a race around the turn of the year, but that was it. Main (only real) signing of the summer was Radamel Falcao and whilst if anyone can get the best out of him it will be Jose Mourinho, this is not the same player who would have had pulses racing a couple of seasons back. Mourinho has also never won a domestic title in his third season in charge at any club, after always winning it in his second, so another bit of history against the Blues and doubtless the Special One and Chelsea will be giving special focus to the Champions League this season. They lost out in the round of 16 last year to a PSG side who equalised late in the second leg in both regulation and extra time, despite playing 90 minutes a man short, after star player Zlatan Ibrahimovic was dismissed. If you think that will not have crushed Mourinho and that he has not thought about that every single day for the last five months, then you do not know the man, he lives for the Champions League and this season will really start for him on Setember 15th with the first Group game.
 

Therefore, for me it is City, United or Arsenal. I have my doubts about each to a degree, but I do feel that this will be the Gunners season and it is long overdue, since finishing top 2 for eight consecutive seasons between 1998-2005 they have not been able to break back into those elite positions and really sustain a title push for teh full nine months.  However, they have their strongest squad in perhaps a decade , finished last year in tremendous form, which they have carried on in pre season this summer and there has been a seed change in Arsene wenger's approach in the last year or so, all of which we discussed ahead of their FA Community Shield game at the weekend..........

Not a lot of love lost between these two clubs , nor the respective managers and Arsene Wenger, who has never beaten Jose Mourinho in 13 attempts, should stay out of going h2h with the Chelsea boss in the media, as he is even less likely to win the "mind games" battle than his players are the match on the pitch and he has got sucked into that over recent days.  However, if the Gunners are to break their duck, today looks as good an opportunity as any and the North London side do look genuine title contenders this season in what could be the most exciting EPL race in recent seasons with a true four way battle a real possibility.

Wenger is used to getting his team ready early in the season after having to play the Champions League play off round six times in the last ten campaigns, he doesn't have that to worry about this time round , but his squad look a little ahead in terms of preparation and he and they will be looking to hit the ground running and get off to a strong start to 2015-16.  Arsenal have already won two pre season titles and have beaten Everton, Lyon and Wolfsburg by a combined 10-1 and will be boosted by their record in this competition with a 5-1-1 record under Wenger, including a 3-0 defeat of PL champions Manchester City last season. Chelsea have lost on four of their last five appearances in the Community Shield and clearly have never taken this as seriously as the Gunners.

Chelsea extended their 14-15 season into June with a trip to Australia to play Sydney FC and have had a gruelling pre season , drawing with PSG and Barcelona, clocking up the air miles with some lucrative games and only returning home from the US on Wednesday. Arsenal have added Petr Cech to their talented squad and he brings with him solidity and a winning mentality, but perhaps the biggest change over the last 12 months has come from within Wenger, who finally accepted that he can play at times a little more direct and not have to always look to dominate possession. That resulted in them winning the FA Cup again and 20 of their final 26 matches, form which they have brought into pre season and will be looking to take into the new season.

 I don't really see the Blues as favourites at this stage of the new season.

 

They won that 1-0 and yes, it was a meaningless fixture, but don't tell Wenger or his team that, it was at long last the breakthrough against Chelsea and matches versus the champions will suddenly feel very different this season. Arsenal got the monkey off their back with that FA Cup win in 2014 after nine years without a trophy, they retained that last season and now the target is a major title push. The win over the Blues was huge, a major psychological boost, they have momentum and enter the new campaign for the first time in recent memory without either having to face a Champions League play off game, or with any significant injury concerns. Alexis Sanchez will miss the first game of the campaign, but should be fit enough for the second, after being given an extended holiday following the Copa America, he returned to full training yesterday, Wenger will not rush him, but like the Gunners as a club, Sanchez is buoyed by success and the Copa win for his nation, with winning titles being very addictive !
 

Odds are lower now than a week/ month ago, but there is still value in my mind as the defeat of Chelsea was so important and if they had once again lost to the Blues, it would have undone much of the positivity and self belief they now have.
 

 

1.75 units Arsenal to win the Premier League outright 5.0 general quote.

 

Crystal Palace:

 

Palace had a great first season in the Premier league in 2013-14 finishing 11th, the second season is always the tough one and they looked in trouble at the turn of the year, but Alan Pardew arrived at New Year and the favourite son of Palace fans took them on an amazing run, 32 points in the second half of the season which equates to 5th spot over a full campaign and they finished tenth, three points and one spot better than under Tony Pulis. This was not a total surprise, ok maybe the manner or it was, but I know a couple of Palace supporters and was well aware of how much Pardew is loved there and the galvanising effect he could have on the club and when he is supported and backed, he is a good coach. We discussed his arrival in some depth and notes from his first couple of starts are reproduced below and they beat Tottenham in that first home league game.
 

Where can they go from here ? That is the big question and to be honest, for any mid table side and we have to now consider Palace that, it is always easier to fall back and get involved in a relegation scrap, which is obviously easier than the quantum leap required to challenge for a top six spot, but I do not see them heading downwards and there is a bit of leeway in terms of a 7-10th place finish. Pardew took West Ham United to 9th and an FA Cup Final in the same season and Newcastle United into Europe, so has history, but South London is where his heart is being a local lad and he has certainly not lacked for support from the board, who have allowed him to upgrade his squad significantly. He has signed Yohan Cabaye (PSG) a player he had under him at Newcastle, Patrick Bamford (Chelsea) and Connor Wickham ( Sunderland) , without losing anyone he wanted to keep from last season's squad, this is hugely impressive and I see improvement likely for the Eagles. There is certainly room for it in terms of home form, last season they collect 27 of 48 points on the road and lost ten times at Selhurst Park, which was surprising as the atmosphere there is incredibly good, Even if they could just find another 9 points winning three of those ten, that would have been enough for 8th and to within two points of Southampton who had a stunning season. Obviously there is good potential and still room to improve.
 

I am going to suggest we split our stakes and bet them to finish "best of the rest" so without the big 6 clubs, Arsenal, Chelsea, United, City, Liverpool and Tottenham, along with a top ten finish bet, they were within a spot in 2013-14, made it last season and have majorly upgraded their squad and odds look too big, for what I make a coin flip.
 

 

1 unit Crystal Palace without the "big 6" 13.0-15.0 general quote...........there is as high as 17.0 in a place or two.

 

 

Crystal Palace- Tottenham Hotspur

 

I know that they were only playing Dover Athletic, but I was really impressed by Palace last weekend, Alan Pardew really got his team "up" for the game and even at 3-0 up and coasting against vastly inferior opponents, they were pressing hard all over the pitch. Ahead of that I wrote ...
 

For Pardew especially, this is not a step into the unknown, he played seven years of non league football before he first joined Palace and has played pre season games here when Charlton Athletic boss. He knows what this means to the hosts and will ensure his squad, who will be looking to catch his eye, appproach this with the correct attitude and this is a competition close to his heart, having made his name as a player in the FA Cup. The visitors will rotate of course and Mile Jedinak and Yannick Bolasie are on international duty, but anyone coming in will be as hungry as the home players, who are part timers and we saw yesterday how the non league teams did tire against much stronger opposition and the big difference between now and 20 years ago is the huge fitness levels of the upper league players, who have made a quantum leap in terms of lifestyle and eating habits. Away win.
 

This is a very different game and test, but Pardew is hardly going to have his troops less fired up on his home debut and already has a league win over Tottenham this season , at WHL, with his former club Newcastle United, he made tactical changes there to turn the match on it's head and said afterwards, "We were giving too much possession to Tottenham, too much space." I am 100% certain that Palace will be harrying Spurs all over the pitch and the visitors have been riding a little luck recently, conceding equalisers after leading in 4 of their last 7 including to Swansea, Leicester and Burnley (twice) and had to score last minute winners to come from behind to beat Villa and Hull , who were both reduced to ten men.