Premier League ..........Tottenham issues and a dream team for "in play" bettors ..............
Mar 21, 2020
Premier League:
29 rounds played, teams are in league order.
ITB:
Liverpool +149 (80-52)
*Man City +216 (96-40)
Leicester +55 (68-55)
Chelsea +145 (84-38)
Man Utd +39 (65-61)
Wolves +36 (72-47)
*Sheffield Utd +19 (63-68)
Tottenham -53 (69-89)
*Arsenal -37 (55-68)
Burnley -29 (55-75)
Crystal Palace -59 (58-67)
Everton +48 (72-62)
Newcastle -115 (49-64)
Southampton -20 (66-57)
Brighton -16 (64-63)
West Ham -64 (54-84)
Watford -27 (64-65)
Bournemouth -78 (53-86)
*Aston Villa -126 (67-95)
Norwich -83 (48-72)
* These teams have played only 28 games.
Season net ITB numbers are directly alongside each team, for example, Liverpool have created 321, given up 172 (321-172 =+149). Figures on the right in parentheses are those created and conceded for the last eight games alone.
Top 8 and only teams on plus ITB numbers are .............
Man City +216
Liverpool + 149
Chelsea + 145
Leicester City + 55
Everton +48
Man Utd +39
Wolves +36
Sheffield United +19
Bottom 6 are ......
Crystal Palace -59
West Ham -64
Bournemouth -78
Norwich -83
Newcastle -115
Villa -126
Middle 6 are ............
Brighton -16
Souhampton -20
Watford -27
Burnley -29
Arsenal -37
Tottenham -53
Before we say anything about those numbers, let's look at the XP league table...........
*Man City 68 pts
Liverpool 67
Chelsea 62
Man Utd 52
Leicester 51
Wolves 49
Everton 47
Southampton 43
Brighton 39
Burnley 39
*Sheffield Utd 37
*Arsenal 35
Tottenham 35
Watford 34
Crystal Palace 29
West Ham 26
Norwich 26
*Aston Villa 21
Bournemouth 21
Newcastle 19
* all have a game in hand.
OK, most of you know I like XG to a degree, but do not collect my own figures ( as I do with ITB) and have an issue over how some people who collect the data, allocate the points, therefore I have taken an average of three XP tables, using one of the better more aggressive tables and two of the more cautious collectors and I think it gives a good balance to the numbers.
Bottom six are the same for XP and ITB, but within those it is clear that most of the luck that has deserted Norwich City has gone the way of Newcastle United.
Also, Brighton and Watford are clearly unfortunate to have fewer than 30 points on board and look significantly better than the other teams currently in the bottom six , all of whom are five + points adrift of Southampton in 14th.
At the top, City come out number one, not sure about that, but it is clear to most that a LOT went Liverpool's way early season and, to the eye, they look to have regressed slightly from last season, which seems crazy to type as they hold a 25 point lead at the top of the table, however, it is futile to argue that point at this stage. I was expecting a fall off in performance over the closing weeks of the campaign and spoke about that a couple of times and we saw the beginnings of that, but now that they are out of the Champions League, as and when the Premier League restarts, they might feel they want to press home their advantage and impress/end the season in style .
Chelsea numbers are very good , clearly putting them third and one of the XP tables has them within 4 points of Pool and ITB sees them of similar level and it has been a great first season for Frank Lampard and his youngsters, last eight game numbers see them with the best defensive record and only Manchester City creating more chances and performance levels have mostly been on the up in recent domestic outings. We can skim over the mauling from Bayern !
Whilst we are looking at last eight game numbers, Wolves have gone from strength to strength since the turn of the year and great credit to them after starting their Europa League campaign in July and having played 15 games in that competition. Southamptom numbers have continued to be good and they really should be basking in mid table safety.
They fall into that middle of the ITB table group and it is that which we need to look at, or perhaps I should say, revisit. The Gunners overall numbers are not good and last eight games figures do not look on a par with results (4-4-0) but we are still very early days in the Mikel Arteta reign and whilst the Europa league exit was awful, it was just one of two losses in 15 starts for the new head coach and on most other days they would have won both games they lost and ironically, their numbers were pretty good in the two defeats. So we can cut Arsenal some slack but I feel less inclined to do so with Tottenham, despite most people doing so given the injury list at White Hart Lane. Their offensive numbers were terrible over Christmas /New Year and at that time I wrote ..............
The Spurs total of 29 chances inside the box created in their last five is awful for any non bottom six team , let alone a Big 6 club and they have now lost Harry Kane for a significant period of time, but his and Tottenham's issues go far deeper.
Kane remains a deadly finisher when he gets the chance and fewer players hit the ball harder, or more accurately, but his XG per attempt has decreased and, the penalty spot aside, he is not having enough attempts on goal with his numbers down from six per game in 2017-18 (his golden season) to half that this time around and it is the real quality (short range) attempts that have dried up. Those from within the penalty box have decreased greatly and from inside 8 metres they have largely disappeared altogether, in 17-18 he took 42 shots (equates to 23.2 through 21 games) from that range and had an XG of 10.5, this season 4 attempts and a 0.77 XG and around the goal, he has lost over a quarter of an expected goal per game which is HUGE across 21 and/or 38 games. I do not know how much is down to the famous "ankle" and now we have hamstring issues, or because he is dropping too deep and wide trying to do too much and there are some arguments that this is/was stifling them offensively. I would not blame him for that, someone has to take responsibility and he has tried to do so on the pitch, but the lack of investment off of it is coming home to roost. Where is the back up striker, the right back (if Serge Aurier is the answer, I have no idea what the question was !), the holding midfielder (there isn't one )?
Tottenham have been pretty awful in all five league and cup starts over the holiday period, beat only Brighton (fortunately) and played one Championship and three bottom 7 teams in that sequence. Jose Mourinho has a lot of work to do in the coming months and needs the purse strings to be loosened.
Where to start ? Of course they would be better with Kane and Son Heung-min in the line up, but the offensive issues predated their injuries and I am not sure that the England captain will ever be quite the same player again and even if he is, Spurs have to change the way they play to get the best out of him and whilst they have created more chances through the last eight games, their defensive numbers have been awful. Only Aston Villa, under gung-ho head coach Dean Smith, have given up more chances inside their own box and we are only talking about league games in that regard. Bayern put 10 past Spurs in the Champions League group stage and how Leipzig managed just four in the knockout round will have to remain one of life's great mysteries ! Spurs did manage one amazing feat early in the second leg game with Red Bull, just before the first goal, they had six defenders against five Leipzig players with all 11 in the box, but not a Tottenham player within 3-4 metres of any German and I am not sure how that is even possible ! Norwich also ran them ragged for an hour or so in the FA Cup. They have won 5 of 16 starts in all competitions in 2020 and overachieved big time to compile that record, they should probably have won just one and lost 10-11 in that sequence and, with issues all over the pitch Jose Mourinho has a big task in hand and Tottenham no history of throwing money at problems and I am not sure what the short term future holds for them, but right now, it doesn't promise much .
Everton are obviously the best bottom half of the table team currently and it is not even close ! But the Toffees have collected just 25 points and five wins, good for 18th place, in the second half of games and something there for Carlo Ancelotti to ponder over the enforced break.
Wolves are the worst first half team in the Premier League with just 24 points and 15 "defeats" three more than anyone else, but they are good for 4th place after the break (losing just one second half) and I have lost count of the number of times they have come from behind to salvage a result under Nuno Espírito Santo (pictured) and they are a dream for "in play" bettors.
Glossary:
ITB= inside the box attempts, Goal of the month competitions usually feature several long range contenders and we always remember those 30 yard bullets into the top corner, but only 12.87% of Premier League goals over the last three seasons have been scored from outside the box , good coaches are known to encourage players to look for better scoring opportunities and it is usually only supporters urging "shoooooot" everytime the goal is within sight, even if there are 20 players between ball and net .
XG= expected goals.
XGF= expected goals for.
XGA = expected goals against.
XGD = expected goal difference.
XP = expected points.
BC = big scoring chance.
I like expected goals/points, but IMO, it is easier to see the direction teams are heading with ITB if only because there are more numerically and the swings quicker to pick up on. But I also think they highlight the flow of the games and the superiority, or failings of teams, better.
Good Luck.
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