Premier League ..........updated stats through six rounds
Oct 29, 2020
Premier League:
Everton 45-46 16-8
Liverpool 74-38 23-15
*Aston Villa 46-50 14-8
Leicester 37-46 12-8
Tottenham 59-38 21-9
Leeds 65-60 12-11
Southampton 46-34 9-9
Palace 33-55 11-11
Wolverhampton 32-50 6-9
Chelsea 47-40 10-8
Arsenal 38-31 10-12
WHU 54-33 10-8
*Man City 44-30 9-11
Newcastle 28-56 7-8
*Man Utd 37-44 7-15
Brighton 46-26 11-9
WBA 24-51 1-15
Sheff Utd 36-51 9-13
*Burnley 31-36 5-6
Fulham 44-51 7-17
Teams are in league table order, six rounds played .
* These four teams have only played 5 games.
ITB numbers are alongside each team, BC's are in blue type.
For example, Everton have created 45 ITB attempts, conceded 46 and have created 16 BC's , given up 8.
West Ham United and Brighton have positive net numbers for both sets of stats which is noteworthy for bottom half of the table teams.
xP:
In terms of expected points, biggest over and under achievers are ..............
Palace -2.6 points
Leicester -2.9 points
Wolverhampton -3.7 points
Aston Villa -3.8 points
Fulham +3.6 points
Brighton +5.0 points
Burnley +5.0 points
Sheffield United +5.6 points
Villa should have 3.8 points less, Sheffield United 5.6 points more.
The Hammers and Seagulls are a net +21 and +20 ITB respectively which places them joint 2nd and 4th in the EPL and Brighton should also have an additional 5 points .
Wolves have been a wonderful addition to the Premier League and to "in running" betting, but even though these are very early days, just six games in, their numbers are poor. They have created the 4th lowest ITB attempts, whilst giving up about the same as WBA, Sheffield United and Fulham who are all bottom four and they are only averaging one BC per game. Maybe we should treat them with caution just for now.
Glossary:
ITB= inside the box attempts, Goal of the month competitions usually feature several long range contenders and we always remember those 30 yard bullets into the top corner, but only 12.87% of Premier League goals over the last three seasons have been scored from outside the box , good coaches are known to encourage players to look for better scoring opportunities and it is usually only supporters urging "shoooooot" everytime the goal is within sight, even if there are 20 players between ball and net .
XG= expected goals.
XGF= expected goals for.
XGA = expected goals against.
XGD = expected goal difference.
XP = expected points.
BC = big scoring chance.
Good luck !
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