Sample betting tip from Monday: Brazil Serie A: Goias- Chapecoense
Jun 11, 2019
Brazil Serie A: Goias- Chapecoense
I have no interest in early group stage European Championship qualifiers, so that only leaves this fixture at present, but thankfully we have two rounds from Brazil this week, one from J-league and the Gold Cup and Copa America starting this coming weekend so plenty of interest there.
Less so with this fixture and I would not not have been writing anything about this game had there been more to choose from . So, briefly, Goias have not made the notes yet this season, they were promoted last year after three seasons in the second tier and it will be all about survival for them, but they have made a decent start with 9 points and three wins from their first six starts and doubtless they will be expecting to add to that this evening.
The hosts bought in a lot of top flight experience in the off season, much of it on loan and looking at a recent wins here in Goiânia , Daniel Guedes (Santos), Giovanni Augusto (Vasco), Yago (Corinthians, loan), Renatinho (Mirassol, was on loan at Botafogo), Giovanny (Athletico-PR, loan), Marlone (Corinthians, loan) have all started. It was thought the new additions would take time to gel, but 9 points is a decent haul and Goias would have taken that if offered for this stage of the campaign,pre season. Their three home starts have seen them score in each, with two wins and two "overs". They have been open encounters, with Goias averaging 15 attempts on goal, opponents 11 , with 17 total inside the box pg.
Chapecoense made my notes on opening day when they hosted Internacional .............
Almost all football fans have a soft spot for Chapecoense after the awful plane crash in Colombia and most were delighted to see them rebuild and survive last season. They were tough to beat here in Chapeco where they won 10 times and collected 79.54% of all their points won, that is big, even in Brazil and I do not doubt that like many teams in this league who's ultimate ambitions are limited, that they know their fate will be decided by home form. For the bigger clubs like Internacional it is the opposite, they take winning at home for granted and it is the odd road win which dictates the top spot, that and the big h2h games, Inter won just 5 on the road last season, the fewest amongst the top 6 and had trouble imposing themselves on teams in away starts. They have made a fast start in Copa Libertadores play and have already won their group and qualified for the knockout stage with a group stage round remaining, but the international competition often brings with it a cost in domestic games, especially in the opening months and I suspect that a third Copa title will be their priority. Chapeco are also battle hardened , but eliminated from the Copa do Brasil losing in R4 this week to Corinthians, winning the home tie 1-0, but losing the away leg 2-0 which is a microcosm of their long term home and away form. Inter have two big games next week, Flamengo and Palmeriras two likely title challengers and they will have one eye on those. For Chape it will be all about this, they go back to Sao Paulo to play Corinthians in midweek, already knowing full well how tough that will be, I will take the host to record a 5th staright win here in this series (they won the last four by a combined 9-1).
They won that 2-0, which was a fine start but they have won just once subsequently, but they do have goals in them, both teams have scored in their last five games and their last four starts have gone "over" (one win/three defeats). They arrive tonight without captain and key central defender Douglas who is suspended, only match he has missed this season ( he has played every minute of the rest) was their worst preformance of the campaign, a 3-1 home loss to Fortaleza, who have only scored three goals total in their other seven starts ! Looking at the last three seasons, Chapecoense have won 2/9 that Douglas has missed, conceded in 8/9 , including 8 in the four road games.
Best value..............
Both teams to score @ circa 2.20.
"over" 2.5 goals 2.375 asian line/Sportmarket.
Either is fine, maybe on this occasion I marginally prefer the BTS option so will suggest that for 1.5 units.
Good Luck.
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