United have been battling bravely and against all the odds to avoid relegation, but are now 4 points from safety with two games in hand (four left to play). I suspect if their season had played out normally they might have survived, but COVID issues have meant they had an enormous number of postponed games to squeeze into an already daunting schedule, which every Championship team has had to deal with. This will be their 7th start inside 17 days and their 9th of the month, through which they have failed to score in 6/8 and taken just 4 points from a possible 24. They have been unlucky in a couple of those and tried to throw everything at another playoff contender and local rival Barnsley, in a narrow loss at the weekend, but ill fortune, allied to exhaustion and playing two of the best teams in the division back to back is never likely to work well.

 

Brentford cannot finish top 2 now, they have secured a playoff spot and if they win this game in hand they will have a four point lead over the team in 4th with two rounds left to play. Not sure exactly how vital 3rd place is this season, it will mean your semi final is against the team who finish 6th, but 4th and 6th and are only separated by a point at present and home field advantage has been lessened this season, but it looks like there will be a small crowd (4,000 ?) allowed into Lionel Road for what would then be the semi final second leg and having played in empty stadiums for so long, that could be decisive.

 

If we backtrack to last Saturday morning, the team most Brentford supporters would have wanted to avoid in the semis was Bournemouth, they were on a roll, having won seven in a row and were looking to make it 3/3 relegated teams being promoted, with Norwich City and Watford already having sealed the deal. However, their air of invincibility was ripped to pieces by the Bees going to the Vitality Stadium and playing Bounemouth off the park for 90 minutes, despite having just ten men on the pitch for the final 46. The scoreline said 1-0 to Brentford, but 3 or 4-0 would have been a fairer reflection, the Bees were first to every ball, pressed all over the pitch , dominated, created a massive number of chance, conceded next to nothing with goalkeeper David Raya mainly playing a sweeper role and this continued after the dismissal of Pontus Jansson (Brentford "winning" attempts 18-4, on target 6-1, ITB 12-2 , BC's 4-1 and it felt far more dominant than that)  . It was the best the Bees have looked in months and it is hard to see them not wanting to build on that now, with the playoffs so close and it all being decided within a month and the Holy Grail of a place in the Premier League awarded to one of four teams.

 

In fact, Brentford now really need a similarly commanding home win, it doesn't overly matter much if Brentford rotate over the final three games Fosu/Canos/Marcondes/ Ghoddos/Mbeumo are all pretty much interchangeable and in what is now a back three, so are CB's Pinnock/ Sorensen/Reid/Goode/ Jansson. Pontus Jansson is suspended for this evening and for me, the stupidity of his sending off and reliability of others puts him 4th or 5th on that list now and personally, I would be happy not to see him start in what is (hopefully) six remaining games, but he probably will at some stage and I do accept I might be in a minority.

 

It feels like a lot was decided at Jersey Road (training ground) last week and a few lines drawn under some variables, 3-5-2 is going to be the formation for the rest of the campaign and they know that they are not going to get Dalsgaard, Da Silva or Henry back now, it all appeared to have concentrated minds. To lose the last two named who are respectively the best ball carrying midfielder (by a mile) and best left back in the Championship was huge, but they have regrouped, reformed and at the end of the day, too many draws, but this team has lost just 4/36 starts .

 

Brentford are second only to Norwich in terms of chances created and have the best defensive record in the Championship, they were second best in terms of xP last season, with only champions Leeds performing (marginally) better and with the Bees head and shoulders above the other two teams promoted in Fulham and WBA. Time for justice to be done and Brentford to make the next step forward.

 

 

2 units Brentford -1.25 ball 2.45 asian line.

 

 

Good luck !