Serie A betting preview .........
Feb 07, 2023
Serie A : Salernitana- Juventus
This is the first league game for Juventus since their points deduction, which I wrote about ahead of their home Coppa Italia meeting with Lazio last midweek....
This week the Italian FA issued a 36 page document explaining the full reasons for the 15 point penalty given to Juventus, which the club have already announced they will appeal against. The case centres around inflated player transfer fees, with the belief, and the FA state that there is "confessional value" in official documents signed by Juventus directors, that the club was registering unrealistic figures as plusvalenza (capital gains).
I don't know if that appeal will be successful, but with it in place, Juventus are out of top 6 contention and winning the Coppa Italia offers the only realistic domestic route into European football next season. However, the current 15 point penalty might just be the tip of the iceberg and apparently, the club is facing further sporting and legal sanctions, with the government/ Italian securities regulatory body investigating another matter or matters, including players paid "off the books" during the pandemic and both parties avoiding tax, which, as a publicly traded company, with legal obligations to the stock market, would be classified as fraud.
For my stating the obvious claim of the day, that doesn't sound good at all and whilst Juventus are openly talking in bullish fashion about the appeal, behind closed doors the club and maybe even some players know the truth and we might not even see Juve playing in the top flight next season. This is not unknown, not just in Italian football, but at Juventus and in July 2006, following a match fixing scandal (Calciopoli), they were stripped of their 04/05 and 05/06 titles and relegated to Serie B.
That would leave motivation for games limited at best and they are coming off a 2-0 home defeat to Monza (last Sunday) and a 3-3 draw here in Turin with Atalanta prior to that. Five goals conceded in back to back home games is as many as they have given up in their ten previous starts at Lo Stadium.
Of course, you can argue a lot of things, that Juventus are better than the average opponent (Lazio have faced) and that the home side might be more interested in the Coppa now than the league and the reverse could be true of Lazio, despite comments to the contrary. But no getting away from the fact that this is a low point for Juve, both as a team and club and who knows what kind of further sanctions individuals might be facing.
This is a very interesting game anyway, certainly in terms of showing us what we might see from Juventus in the coming weeks.
Juventus played well , especially defensively and won 1-0, but are on the road this evening and Salerno is almost 800km from Turin, which is a long midweek trip and we still don't quite know what reaction we will see from the "Old Lady" in a league game. Salernitana are a team we were very keen on and who served us well late last season and early in this campaign, including in a 2-2 draw away to Juve and 3-1 win at Lazio, their ruthless and some might say scattergun approach to transfers in the January and Summer 2022 windows clearly worked well. However, they have lost their way either side of the World Cup break and need to get back to basics, sitting just two places, albeit 7 points above the drop zone, but with signs that two of the bottom 3 in Sampdoria and Verona are starting to pick up. We did see that reaction last time out in a 2-1 win at Lecce , since when they have had a free 11 days to prepare solely for this, that was on the back of a nightmare sequence of results, including an 8-2 loss away to Atalanta and 2-0 defeat here on home soil to league leaders Napoli. That 2-2 draw in Turin in early season was very feisty with nine yellow and three red (all very late) cards shown and that should ensure that the approach tonight is competitive and hopefully, Salernitana might be more up for that than Juve, given what happened last week.
2.5 units both teams to score 2.10+ asian line.
1 unit Salernitana to win (-0.5 ball) 7.0+ asian line.
Good luck!
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