Serie A betting tip: SPAL- Fiorentina
Aug 02, 2020
Serie A: SPAL- Fiorentina
SPAL visited a Verona side in midweek who had achieved all their targets for the season , had not won in 7, or kept a clean sheet in 12 and who were already mentally lying on a beach somewhere, and yet they lost 3-0. They were two down after 11 minutes, conceded the third early in the second half and SPAL did nothing to change the opinion that they had waved the white flag on the 19-20 campaign , ahead of that game I noted .......
SPAL are relegated and look to have given up, yes, they drew 1-1 at home to Torino at the weekend, but they "lost" ITB attempts 14-5 and attempts on target 6-1. SPAL had conceded 25 goals in the eight games prior to that and have lost 13 of their last 16 starts. Verona have taken their foot off the gas after a very good first season back in the top flight, they have not won in seven or kept a clean sheet in 12, but will finish somewhere between 8th and 12th. However, they lost 5-1 at home to Lazio last weekend and I expect a reaction to that and a win before the end of the season,best chance of that is today of course, but whether it will come along with a clean sheet is another matter, SPAL have scored in their last three and the two teams have given up an identical number of ITB attempts post lockdown.
That SPAL surrendered so tamely against an opponent in poor form says much about them and it feels like their confidence is shot and any desire has evaporated and they should be opposed against almost anyone. I suppose they might suddenly want to put on a performance now in their final home start and last Serie A game, but I feel the quick turnaround(s) lessens the chance of that, as does the fact that there are no home fans to appease/play for.
There are notes from Fiorentina's own midweek game in the next preview (edit : see those midweek notes below). In stark contrast to SPAL they are ending on a high, have got rid of those home matchday blues and have lost only to red hot Roma in eight starts, kept clean sheets in three of their last four, including away to second placed Inter and blew Bologna out of the water 4-0, missing a further two BC's. A win today will ensure a top half of the table finish for La Viola which might not sound much, but it is the minimum they deserve in relation to their stats , would end their season on a high and give them something to build on for 20-21. Two+ goal win for the visitors.
2 units Fiorentina -1.25 ball 2.15 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good luck !
Fiorentina- Bologna (written July 29th )
I have been speaking about the respective woes of these two post lockdown, with the main focus on Fiorentina's inability to win at home despite having top 8 numbers and quadruple blue type next to their name for most of the campaign and Bologna's total failure to keep a clean sheet. Well, the latter continues, it is now 32 games and counting and they were mighty lucky to only give up 2 at home to Serie B bound Lecce last weekend, with the visitors having 25 attempts, 16 ITB and 10 on target, with 7 saves made by both keepers in a wild and crazy game. Fiorentina broke that duck with a 2-0 defeat of Torino, it was only their 5th win in 33 games as host, but even "a journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step" and they had to start somewhere. They built on that with a 0-0 draw at Inter and their only loss in seven came last time out away to Roma and that looked draw bound until very late. My thinking is that they will not want to take that home millstone into next season and a second win in their final start at the Stadio Artemio Franchiwill achieve that. They seem sure to score, probably 2+ and have a good record in this fixture winning 7/10.
Bologna are a league worst net -27 ITB for the last five games, through which they have given up 63 attempts , which is ten more than anyone else.
2 units Fiorentina -0.75 ball 2.31 asian line/Sportmarket.
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