Sloane Stephens has made the last eight of all four slams, reaching the Roland Garros final and winning the US Open, but it feels very much like a career full of inconsistency and "what might have beens". She is a great talent, a fantastic athlete (from a family full of them) and she can hit shots, even from out of position, that others, even those ranked top 10, would not even dream of attempting, yet, on another day she can seem disinterested and matches against inferior players can run away from her. When it all clicks she is totally unplayable, but it feels a while since she was in that kind of form. However, when she is the outsider against a non elite opponent, on US hardcourts and especially here in Florida, she is always worth a look. Sloane was born and raised in the state and still lives here, has played on these courts many, many times and is very used to the almost unique weather conditions in Miami. She won this event in 2018 and it remains her only win in what used to be called Premier events and she has a 17-8 record here and since her debut, is 4-0 in R1 matchups in Miami, she is also 6-3 in R2, so rarely goes out early in what she would consider her home event.

 

Shelby Rogers is what I would have to term a journeywoman player, that is not meant as disrespectful, she has bounced around between a #30-#60 ranking most of her career , including the last three years (currently #42) and has made the most of her talent. If Sloane had been able to do the same, she would have won several slams and any number of Premier events and spent most of her career in the top 10. If you know 100% that both would play at their absolute best today, odds would be something like 1.18-6.5 in favour of Stephens, as it is, we get 1.58-2.53 in favour of Rogers and I am too weak to let that pass!  There was also a big birthday this week, with Sloane turning 30 on Monday, that is one of those milestone birthdays for sports players that we have discussed often in the past, usually with golfers and there is often a slump in form in build up to these "number" birthdays and an improvement once they pass and the realization that nothing has changed and life goes on, starts to kick in. But this is more about the odds (it always is) ,being in Miami and being able to sleep in your own bed (her home is a 25 minute drive away). Rogers has a 40% career win rate against opponents ranked top 50 and 41% versus those ranked 21-50, Sloane is currently #47 but is MUCH better than that as long as she gets out of bed on the right side and decides to turn up!

 

1.75 units Sloane Stephens to beat Shelby Rogers 2.53 Pinnacle/Vegas Line.

 

Good luck!