Inside the numbers:

 

Hopefully these notes will help identify teams that have been over or under achieving in terms of points picked up, with regard to "expected" goals for and against and Xpoints, with some additional ITB numbers and/or "in play" stats.

 

 

ITB= inside the box attempts, Goal of the month competitions usually feature several long range contenders and we always remember those 30 yard bullets into the top corner, but only 12.87% of Premier League goals over the last three seasons have been scored from outside the box , good coaches are known to encourage players to look for better scoring opportunities and it is usually only supporters urging "shoooooot" everytime the goal is within sight, even if there are 20 players between ball and net .

 

XG= expected goals.

XGF= expected goals for.

XGA = expected goals against.

XGD = expected goal difference.

XP = expected points.

BC = big scoring chance.

*** = games of special statistical interest

 

 

 

 

Schalke are the big top half of the Bundesliga overachiever, they should have scored 4.56 goals fewer, conceded 1.46 more and collected 4.23 points less, big numbers across six games.  Koln are in trouble in 17th and have conceded 8 goals in their last two, it has been a tough run of fixtures, but they have not helped themselves by having a man sent off relatively early in those last two starts. They should have scored 1.64 more, conceded 4.42 less and picked up another 2.02 points more, it is about what you would expect from a team near the bottom, you do not get there by having the rub of the green.  But they are +7 ITB attempts in the four games in which they finished with 11 men, Schalke +8 in their last four. 12 of 13 Schalke goals have come after the 31st minute.

 

 

 

 

Wow ! Despite having played just 2 of 6 starts at home. Bologna have posted some eyecatching expected numbers, they should have scored 13.25 goals (only Roma and Atalanta are above 12), that's an extra 6.25, conceded just 4.61 (no team lower) which is 2.39 less than they have and picked up 5.63 points more, no team is more than 3.19 points off their true number and only three more than one point adrift. If there is one team in Italy playing better than the table suggests in is Bologna and by some way ! Lazio are 6th and their number are pretty stable, but they must be a little weary of Europa League after three straight seasons of playing Thursday/Sunday. The visitors should have conceded 2.18 more goals and have played the bottom 3. Bologna collected 30 points from their final 17 starts last season (just 14 from the first 21) and look, despite the table not truly reflecting that, to have carried on that form.

 

 

Roma are 5th and just about right on the money in terms of X points and goals conceded , but they should have scored 2.45 more. However, it is Cagliari who are of more interest, they should have scored 2.91 fewer, conceded 4.14 more and picked up 4.99 points less, which is half of their 10 point tally. They have lost every match on ITB attempts,being -32 for the season. Roma have won the last four h2h meetings in the Eternal City without conceding.

 

 

 

Napoli are 4th and like Roma, their numbers are solid, their X goal difference is within a goal of the actual one,  they should have just shy of a point more on board and they are +27 ITB. Torino are 9th but X numbers suggest they have overachieved compared to performance and scored 2.89 more and conceded 1.84 fewer than they should have done and this has resulted in picking up an extra 3.94 points. the hosts are -30 ITB, "losing" all six starts and as they have played four of the bottom eight teams in Serie A, that makes poor reading. Napoli are looking for a 5th staright win here in this fixture, scoring 13 goals in the previous 4 visits.

 

 

 

 

Osasuna have found wins hard to come by in their first season back in the top flight, their expected numbers indicate they have been unlucky and they should have scored 3.53 more goals and picked up an additional 2.57 points, so encouragement there going forward. However, some of the Villarreal numbers are through the roof, they are top La Liga scorers in both real and expected terms and should have conceded 3.04 goal less and picked up 2.93 points more. They have scored 7 goals in there games against top 4 teams (Granada/Real Madrid/Bace) but picked up just 2 points despite leading late in two of those. Even if Osasuna were hitting those X numbers they would still be well short of Villa, however, the real stand out stat for me is that the visitors are +22 in ITB attempts in their last three starts (a big number) especially as one of those games was a trip to the Camp Nou.

 

 

 

 

 

There are some really eyecatching numbers in Ligue 1, but they are not too much use to us if the fixtures fall wrongly, we are looking for a team with potential who are not hitting their numbers, hopefully facing one who is riding their luck, so I have let a few teams pass. Monaco were one, numbers indicate they should be third not 12th, but Montpellier also look better than the table suggests and perhaps the only team I would not have sided with ASM against .

 

 

 

Dijon are bottom of the table, but I spoke about their numbers ahead of a home draw with highflying Marseille two weeks ago and they followed up with a win at Reims last week. XG suggest they should have scored 5.39 goals more, conceded 1.89 fewer and have 6.6 more points on board. Strasbourg's numbers are"ok" but skewed by playing five of 8 at home, where they get incredible support, they have not scored in three away starts and they have played an addition six games due to Europa League qualification. DFCO are also 13-7 across their last five starts in terms of big chances created , in that sequence they have faced four top 9 and three top 6 opponents.

 

 

 

Along with Angers I guess Nantes can be considered the surprise package of the season so far and currently sit in third, their have scored and conceded few goals (8-5 goal difference), but even that should read (6.51-8.28) and their points tally just 7.11 which is a massive 0.89 per game less than they have collected. Just two first half goals in their games all season (1-1) and probably, despite those numbers not a team you want to be playing catch up with. Nice look far more stable with their sixth placed numbers and they are looking for a third straight win in this fixture.

 

 

 

 

 

Teams at the foot of the table will normally have been underachieving, certainly in terms of points collected , so the fact that Newcastle have actually 0.37 points more than "expected" should have alarm bells going off loudly at St James' Park, it might not sound like much, but they are the only team with minus Xpoint numbers amongst the bottom 11 in the Premier League. They face a Manchesetr United team who are 10th, albeit only three points off 4th and the Champions League places and, they have to stay in contention. Their X goal difference is +5.64 ( 11.17-5.53) as opposed to reality of +2 and that translates into an extra 5.4 points, incredibly, in the XP table, this puts them second ! We could argue all day about that, but they are probably in a false position to some degree and the Magpies a true one .ITB numbers for the season put the Reds at +15, Newcastle on -30. The home side had the 3rd lowest XGF last season, should have conceded an additional 9.5 goals and all numbers suggest under 40 points would have been a truer reflection than the 45 they actually collected.

 

 

 

 

 

City are unbeaten in 9 and have come from behind in four of those showing good battling qualities, but their expected numbers are poor and hint at some problems down the line. Their XGD and points are 12.4-15.3 and 6, good for 22nd not 7th ! This weeked they host Reading who are actually 21st, but their own X numbers are 13.4-14.0 and 12,  which would put them 14th. I looked at my ITB numbers for the last five starts for each in which both teams have finished with 11 men, City were -6, the Royals +15 .

 

 

 

These two are currently in 4th and 15th place respectively, the expected table suggests it should be 19th and 3rd ! Forest should have scored 4.5 goals less, conceding 2.8 more, collecting 9 points fewer. Bees XGD is +6.5 as opposed to reality of +1 with and with an additional 7 points. In terms of ITB numbers this season Forest are -22 , Brentford +45, the Bees are +7 big chances in their last two starts, Forest -1.

 

 

 

London derby with the two teams only separated by a single point. However, the Athletic goal has lifed a charmed life and they should have conceded 5 goals more and have 6 points less in the bag. Only Leeds United have better X numbers than Fulham and, through 10 games they should be 12 points ahead of the visitors. Fulham were 16-1 ITB in their most recent home game and Charlton -31 across their last six, "losing" each.

 

 

 

Final round in MLS, high scoring league with a big home bias, but that tends to go out of the window at this stage of the season when some teams are highly motivated and others less so, but we can save that for Sunday, for now there is one "friendly" where neither team has anything much to play for.

 

 

Both play in the Eastern Conference, City are 11th on 37 points, Fire 8th with 39, final playoff position is out or reach, so they are basically playing for 8th-11th.  Orlando have had the second fewest attempts on goal in the East, Fire the 4th most, 2.7 per game more, Chicago have faced the fewest attempts on goal in the Conference, second least in the whole of MLS (!), Orlando have allowed the 4th most,  2.73 pg more. If that sounds odd, just wait ! Actual goal difference is +5 Fire, -5 the OC, XGD is +15 (again, best in East , 2nd best in MLS) and -1.4 respectively. XP Fire are #1 in the East with 55.2, OC have 44.

 

So here we have Fire, the best team in the East in almost all categories missing out on top 7 and the post season ! I need the off season to fully process that !

 

Looking for some verification of those numbers, I looked at ITB numbers for the last 10 games, Fire were +38, City -33 (they played a relatively similar number of teams who will/will not make the post season), in games where they faced the same teams (5) Chicago put up +20, OC -13. Orlando have a -6 first half home goal difference, but are +6 after the break.

 

I won't say a key game, given how little is at stake, but the numbers are a bit mind boggling and worth looking at in further detail ahead of next season.

 

 

 

 

22 of 38 rounds played, but already it is looking like a two horse race at the top between defending champion Palmeiras who are three points behind leaders Flamengo. AMG were in contention in early August but have lost 7 of 8 starts since . Palmeiras have taken 16 points from a possible 18 and are strong at home and especially in the first half of games with a 13-1 goal difference here in SP before the break, AMG are 1-7 (scored conceded) as a visitor in the opening 45 minutes. Atletico played in midweek so a quick turnaround for them ahead of one the toughest fixtures in Brazil. Palmeiras have only "lost" ITB attempts once in 22 starts (away to Flamengo) averaging over +5 per game.