Copa America:
USA -Paraguay
Colombia- Costa Rica
Ahead of the Colombia-Paraguay game on Tuesday I wrote .......
This match is being played in Pasadena, so advantage Colombia having opened in Santa Clara, just a short hop down the coast and a beautiful drive along Highway 101 if you choose to go the scenic route ! Paraguay played in Orlando which means a six hour flight, three hour time difference and having played a day later, 20 hours + less recovery time. All these disadvantages add up and inbetween two tough games, I think it is the exta training session that Colombia will have been able to fit in that is the real bonus and I do think they will be looking to win the group. That would mean staying on the West Coast (Seattle) for their quarter final, as opposed to flying to New York and they would go to Houston in the semis if they won, which is where they are playing their final group game, so a big edge there , or rather no disadvantages, which is effectively the same thing ! It would also give Brazil the "option" to avoid them in the last eight and go into the separate half of the draw from both Colombia and Argentina, by finishing runner up in Group B. They might be without James Rodriguez today which is, of course, a loss, Los Cafeteros are 8-1-1 in his absence, although half of those starts were against weaker opposition than they face today.
Paraguay played as kind of expected against Costa Rica, which was not to lose, head coach Ramon Diaz has been very critical of the schedule (he is right) and the very hot draining conditions, on top of everything else, his team faced in Orlando . They had a lot of experienced and likely starters withdraw from the squad pre tournament, Aguliar, Ortigoza, Barrios and Caceres who all started in their last really good result a 0-0 draw with Argentina for example are missing ( nine players with 413 international starts were either left out , or pulled out of the final squad) and options are limited. Diaz is 95% certain to stick with the eleven who faced Costa Rica, given the weather, travel, time difference, less rest etc, is that a good or bad thing ?
Colombia won 2-1, were unchanged from their opener, which meant not only a start, but a goal and assist from James, who stayed on the pitch the whole 90 minutes. Two up inside 30 minutes, Los Cafeteros were then happy to sit back and play on the counter ,but 69% of completed passes were in their opponents half and they did far more with their possession over the 90 minutes, although Paraguay were on top in the second half and were close to taking a point. Colombia head coach Jose Pekerman was pleased with his team overall, but felt that some of his younger players in defensive areas tired and maybe now that they have qualified for the last eight, that we will see some rotation today. The USA game actually kicks off earlier, and anything but a win for the host nation will mean that Colombia will have won the group and have nothing left to play for. If the US win, then Colombia will need a point or better to top the section, which they will be looking to do, as it would mean they stay on the West coast and (probably) avoid Brazil in the quarters. Hard to know how Costa Rica will approach this, they are on their way home and probably do not want another heavy defeat and would take pride in any result against Colombia, but the South Americans have scored four goals, all in the first half and very early in each game and there is a chance that this could quickly run away from CR if they fall behind
The US team got back on track with their 4-0 win over Costa Rica and they will qualify for the last eight with a draw (baring a HUGE win for CR over Colombia), but in front of a home crowd, they would surely prefer to do so in style and to take some momentum into the quarter finals. Paraguay might be encouraged by their second half performance over the Colombians, but it has to be remembered that they did not start playing until two down and they have spent more time by far in the air, than on the training pitch and have played in draining Orlando , Pasadena on the West Coast and now travel all the way back to Philadelphia and there cannot be much left in the tank and I wonder if they will be able to step up again if they fall behind. Only three points would be enough for them and sooner or later they will have to gamble, the hosts only have only to make the short trip across from Chicago and also started their Matchday 2 game three hours earlier, so have all the advantages coming in. The South Americans have to win, but they do not do that very often, they have won 1/16 in the Copa, just 3/19 in all competitions and have not beaten a FIFA Top 40 team (US are #31) in almost four years. They will be also be without suspended playmaker Oscar Romero.
1.5 units USA -0.5 ball 2.16 asian line/Sportmarket.
1.25 units Colombia-Costa Rica "over" 2.75 goals 2.35 asian line/Sportmarket.
Euro 2016: Switzerland -Albania
I am going to take a watching brief here and concentrate on the two other Euro 2016 games, my feeling is that Switzerland have gone backwards since the last World Cup, they lost easily home and away to England in qualification and recent friendly results have been poor. Albania are going to come with a hugely defensive approach and have a couple of very impressive results (including beating France and Portugal) in the last two years, although those have tailed off a little in build up. However, the real unknown is that several of the Swiss players are of Albanian origin and I am sure that has made for some awkward situations or thoughts in the run up to this game. If you twisted my arm, the Albanians played eight qualification group games (inc Portugal, denmark and Serbia) and friendlies with France (twice) and Italy and only conceded one first half goal, so the half time draw at 1.90 + or maybe even Albania level ball in FH betting @ 3.17 are options.
Good Luck.
