Taken from today's subscriber newsletter ............winners at odds of 3.0 , 9.71 and 100-1 !!!!
Sep 27, 2020
Bundesliga : Hoffenheim- Bayern Munich
Bayern made the midweek notes in their Super Cup game with Sevilla ............
Bayern have not appeared in a Super Cup since 2013 when they beat Chelsea and appear "up" for this game, every game really, they have won 30/31 competitive starts and scored 3+ goals in 20 , they are on a run of 22 straight wins and have won the last eight by a combined 32-5. That is impressive enough, but when we add that they include a DFB-Pokal final, four knockout stage Champions League games and a 8-2 defeat of Barcelona and 8-0 rout of Schalke last week in their first game of 20-21, it starts to get a little surreal. They are just a juggernaut who steamroller teams, they have kept three consecutive clean sheets , but they do not usually worry about conceding, as they are fully confident that they are going to score 3+ themselves against pretty much anybody. Prior to that trio of clean sheets they had conceded in 10/12 , giving up two goals five times and Schalke aside, who have some big issues, should have conceded to both Lyon and PSG with the French pair having five BC's between them and it felt like more.
Sevilla have won a record six UEFA Cup/Europa League titles, but have lost their last four Super Cups, the three most recent (2014-15-16) by a combined 10-6, losing 3-2 to Real Madrid and 5-4 to Barcelona, there are very offensive minded and have a history of goals in this glorified friendly and we can surely expect some entertainment this evening. The Andalusian club have not played since the Europa League final on August 21st (final preview is reproduced at the foot of this email) which is 34 days ago, through that time they have had to take a much shorter than normal break and then return to prepare for this, they were also playing domestic football until July 19th (Bundesliga ended June 27) and even with the European fixtures, it feel more like a "normal" off season for the Bavarian giants and that they are better prepared for the new campaign. Sevilla have been back training for less than two weeks , some 11-12 days, which is probably about the worst period of time to then play a competitive game, I think we can expect far heavier rotation through the game from them and for Bayern to be in better shape and possibly want this more, the desire to continue to fill the trophy cabinet being so huge in Munich.
They were not really themselves, but only English referee Anthony Taylor stopped them winning inside 90 minutes with both teams scoring and I do not really understand why he got the "gig" in the first place ! Anyway, it meant Bayern had to play extra time and they are bound to be tired today and claimed they were too exhausted to celebrate in midweek, but they will move to the top of the table with any kind of win and more importantly for now, steal 2-4 points on their biggest title "rivals".
Bayern won 6-0 here last season, but Hoffenheim had scored in the four h2h games prior to that and in the last meeting it was all about revenge which the Bavarian club are big on, after TSG won in Munich in early season 2-1 and they also scored three in a seven goal cup thriller back in February at the Allianz Arena.
Hoffenheim really struggled at home last season, something we touched upon several times, but following a Week 31 loss to Leipzig here I noted .............
Hoffenheim lost 2-0 but played really well for the first 75 minutes , through which they were the better team and created a huge number of goalscoring chances, "winning" attempts 24-15, corners 9-1 and having 13 attempts ITB, two "big chances" and forcing six saves, with RBL goalkeeper Peter Gulacsi named man of the match. That was as many ITB attempts as RBL had given up in their last two starts combined, one of which they played 50 minutes a man short.
We went with them after that and they won away to Augsburg and Dortmund and home to Union Berlin and by a combined 11-1 (!) to finish their campaign , they started this with a 3-2 win at Koln and they also played an away cup game where they created 10 BC's which is something you will not see too often ! Hoffenheim have won two of the last four h2h meetings as host and one came in September, could it happen again ? They have also scored 8 goals in four trips to Munich, so this is one team I do not feel are scared of Bayern.I think the following all offer value ............
Bayern to win and both teams to score
1.5 units Hoffenheim to score "over" 1.5 goals 2.90-3.0 general quote.
0.75 units Hoffenheim to win (-0.5 ball) 9.71 asian line/Sportmarket .
2-3 would not surprise, you do feel the hosts need to score twice to get any kind of result , Hoffenheim are in great form and perhaps Bayern are at their most vulnerable today , at least in 2020 terms.
Odds for Leicester City and Hoffenheim to both win are circa 100-1 which seems big given how both games are likely to play out, is no lost cause and a cheap bet !
Good luck !
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