TGIW ...............Thank Goodness It's Wednesday
Aug 25, 2021
Full round in Japan J-league 1 today and three games were previewed in the clubgowi newsletter (see below). Marinos won 4-0, Kobe 3-1 and Antlers also 4-0.
In addition, all the highlighted "in play" stats rewarded some "winners within winners" plays , with Oita conceding in the 87th minute, Antlers being 2-0 up at half time and in a dream game, SSP conceding two further goals after the 82nd minute !
Japan J-League 1:
Sagan Tosu- Yokohama F.Marinos
YFM hosted Vegalta Sendai at the weekend ...................
I previewed Marinos' start before last, a 2-0 home win over Nagoya Grampus .........
This is the third straight road game for Grampus and they lost both by two goals, 3-1 at Sagan Tosu and 2-0 to Yokohama on Monday, so quite a bit of travel to and from the city this week. It was a bit of a shock, as they have only conceded five in their previous 10 away starts and they look in season low defensive form right now, thinking that is enforced by the fact that Yokohama had not scored more than a single goal in 11 starts prior to that . Nagoya are far from prolific goalscorers (just 23 in 22 starts) and their game is all about keeping things tight defensively and they are not going to win a shootout against anyone, let alone a team as prolific offensively as Marinos. Back in May I wrote .........
I am starting to get very interested in YFM, they were great champions in 2019 and scored freely last year , but their title defence was over before it began last season, in terms of top spot it might be this time round too, but second place is firmly up for grabs and they are coming on fast. They have not lost since opening day (to Frontale) are once again second highest scorers, but what is really eye-catching is the fact that they have only conceded 8 goals, which is a huge turnaround, 7 fewer at this stage than in the title winning season and 11 less than 12 months ago. If they were to win their three games in hand, they would "only" be five adrift of the leaders and maybe, just maybe, we could still have a title race on our hands, which would be just great.
Marinos are now firmly in control of second place, 9 points clear of Sagan in third with this game in hand and they will move to within 8 of Kawasaki Frontale with the win. They have scored 2.0 goals pg, which is 0.435 more than anyone apart from the leaders and conceded the 4th fewest in J-League, scoring 8 more and giving up 8 fewer than at the same stage of their 2019 title season.Without Frontale they would be coasting towards another title and are on course for 86 points which would have beaten Kawasaki last season and taken the title by a landslide in any other campaign .
They are coming off a 2-2 draw at Shimizu S-Pulse on Monday, but "won" attempts 28-7, 9-4 on target, 15-2 ITB, 11-2 corners and 2-7 saves and they have won next time out after all four previous draws this season ( 2x 1-0 and 2x 3-1). Marinos won this fixture 2-1 late last season, putting up numbers worthy of a more emphatic win...........19-9 attempts, 9-3 on target, 9-0 corners, 4-0 BC's, 11-6 ITB and 3-7 saves.
YFM have played one subsequent game, also at home, beating Oita Trinita 5-1, across the two games they created 9 BC's (4+ in each) and dominated both, but should also have conceded in each, as they have done in the last three h2h home games with Vegalta, 3-1, 2-1, 5-2. That 5-2 scoreline is interesting, as it is also the score by which they won a reverse fixture in Sendai back in April in the League Cup and the game with Oita, who missed two BC's, might have finished with the same score.
Marinos won 5-0 (also missed another 4 BC's) and with Kawasaki Frontale dropping points, we have a title race ! The gap at the top is down to four points, it was as big as 20 (played four games more) at one stage. Today will be tough, Sagan are third and in a massive five way battle for what is one remaining Champions League place and I have spoken several times this season about how good and improved they are. However, they are well adrift of Marinos (15 points) and have been well beaten twice by YFM in the last 11 months, losing the reverse fixture 2-0 in June (also giving up 5 BC's, 22 attempts, 12 ITB , with 9 on target) and 3-1 here in Tosu City last season with similarly good numbers. YFM have to find a way to win this now that they have got so close to Frontale and I have to stick with them.
2 units Yokohama F.Marinos -1 ball 2.48 asian line.
Oita Trinita- Vissel Kobe
Oita are struggling and six points from safety and we did pick up on them very early as a team for whom 2021 was likely to be tough, writing in March .............
Oita are unbeaten through their four starts, but have played Yokohama and Tokushima definitely two of the weaker teams, they should have lost to FC Tokyo (1-1) in a game where they created almost nothing and did lose to Vissel Kobe, albeit in a "meaningless" League Cup tie. Oita might well struggle this season as they sold a number of key players in the off season and as a minimum could be in transition and with no relegation last season (their second after promotion) maybe we could view this as that always difficult second campaign in the top flight for them.
They have only scored 3 goals in 10 starts against top 6 opposition in league and cup, losing 7, including a 3-1 defeat to Vissel Kobe here in Oita in the League Cup.
Vissel edged that big top 3 clash with Kashima Antlers we discussed on Saturday (see SSP preview below) and have won 50% of away starts (6-4-2), they have strengthened in the mid season window and have their star names back and really ought to build on that big victory in this very win-able fixture.
2 units Vissel Kobe -0.75 ball 2.22 asian line.
Oita have a 3-8 home goal difference after the 61st minute.
Vissel Kobe are 7-2 (scored- conceded) on the road in the opening 30 minutes, second only to Frontale.
Shimizu S-Pulse- Kashima Antlers
Kashima Antlers have some ground to make up in the race for top 3 after their weekend loss in Kobe ..............
This is one of those weird series, where Vissel have done well as the road team, but struggled as host, with Antlers having won the last six and being unbeaten in 10 visits with six clean sheets in Kobe. Antlers are up to third, but have no chance to catch the top 2 and with just 3 points separating 3rd from 8th (including Vissel) and only the top 3 qualifying for the Champions League, defeat today would be expensive for either.
The draw makes some appeal and stalemates are running at the highest level for many years, but still "only" circa 26% and Antlers don't really do road draws, just 2 in 29 starts since the beginning of last season, with a 51.72% win rate. Kobe have won 32.14% as host over the same period and will be trying to introduce some new signings today.
Antlers won attempts 16-10, on target 8-3, ITB 7-4, missed 2 BC's, with the Kobe keeper, Hiroki Ilkura, making 7 saves and picking up the MOTM award , with only Vissel CB Kikuchi coming close to his performance level, so a top defensive rearguard action from the hosts.
We opposed Shimizu for their last home game with Gamba Osaka which they lost 1-0 and had touched upon how poor they had been, albeit it in a 2-2 draw, against Marinos a few days earlier, giving up 27 attempts, 14 ITB, 9 on target, 11 corners and making 7 saves. That is of further interest as it is the only game in SSP's last six starts versus top 7 opponents in which they have scored and they hugely rode their luck in that !
2 units Kashima Antlers -0.75 ball 2.24 asian line.
Antlers have a 9-4 away first half goal difference.
SSP are 0-6 (scored-conceded) at home after the 76th minute.
Good luck !
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