I am going to look at the top three English leagues over the coming weeks, build up some stats and data for us to take into the restart/second half of the campaign, the EPL notes will be in several parts, starting today.

 

 

2022/23				Overall									Home						Away
				P	W	D	L	F	A	Gdf	Pts	Form	P	W	D	L	F	A	P	W	D	L	F	A
	1		Arsenal	14	12	1	1	33	11	+22	37	WWWX	6	6	0	0	19	7	8	6	1	1	14	4
	2		Manchester City	14	10	2	2	40	14	+26	32	LWWW	8	7	0	1	30	9	6	3	2	1	10	5
	3		Newcastle United	15	8	6	1	29	11	+18	30	WWWW	8	5	3	0	17	5	7	3	3	1	12	6
	4		Tottenham Hotspur	15	9	2	4	31	21	+10	29	WLWL	8	6	0	2	21	11	7	3	2	2	10	10
	5		Manchester United	14	8	2	4	20	20	+0	26	WLWX	6	4	1	1	9	4	8	4	1	3	11	16
	6	2	Liverpool	14	6	4	4	28	17	+11	22	WWLL	8	5	2	1	21	8	6	1	2	3	7	9
	7	1	Brighton & HA	14	6	3	5	23	19	+4	21	LWWL	7	3	2	2	11	6	7	3	1	3	12	13
	8	1	Chelsea	14	6	3	5	17	17	+0	21	LLLX	6	3	2	1	10	6	8	3	1	4	7	11
	9		Fulham	15	5	4	6	24	26	-2	19	LLOW	8	3	3	2	14	13	7	2	1	4	10	13
	10	1	Brentford	15	4	7	4	23	25	-2	19	WXXL	7	3	3	1	13	7	8	1	4	3	10	18
	11	1	Crystal Palace	14	5	4	5	15	18	-3	19	LWWL	7	4	1	2	10	8	7	1	3	3	5	10
	12	1	Aston Villa	15	5	3	7	16	22	-6	18	WWLW	7	4	1	2	11	6	8	1	2	5	5	16
	13	1	Leicester City	15	5	2	8	25	25	+0	17	WWLW	7	2	2	3	9	6	8	3	0	5	16	19
	14	3	Bournemouth	15	4	4	7	18	32	-14	16	WLLL	8	3	2	3	9	8	7	1	2	4	9	24
	15	3	Leeds United	14	4	3	7	22	26	-4	15	LWWL	7	3	2	2	12	9	7	1	1	5	10	17
	16	1	West Ham United	15	4	2	9	12	17	-5	14	LLLW	8	3	1	4	9	10	7	1	1	5	3	7
	17	1	Everton	15	3	5	7	11	17	-6	14	LLOW	7	2	2	3	6	6	8	1	3	4	5	11
	18	2	Nottingham Forest	15	3	4	8	11	30	-19	13	WXLW	8	3	2	3	10	11	7	0	2	5	1	19
	19	1	Southampton	15	3	3	9	13	27	-14	12	LLLX	7	1	3	3	8	12	8	2	0	6	5	15
	20	1	Wolves	15	2	4	9	8	24	-16	10	LLXL	8	2	2	4	5	13	7	0	2	5	3	11

 

I have spoken of this World Cup being unlike any other in recent weeks and the same applies to this EPL season, as we have never had a proper mid season break before and this is a long one, over six weeks between league games. It might not be such an issue for those players who have been at the WC as they have largely continued to play, but they will have left winter to go and compete and live in hot weather, then come back to winter! It will feel like the off season and perhaps even more so for those left behind who have had a week or so off, training games and for many teams, trips to camps in Spain or elsewhere and that is how days are filled in pre-season and bodies are going to be very confused!

 

In what might be viewed as the second start to the season, it is perhaps worth noting that Leeds United hit the original one running with 7 points from their first three games and Chelsea (4 pts),Man United (3), Liverpool (2) and West Ham (0) all fell out of the blocks.

 

In terms of who has been at the WC, all teams had players in Qatar, they range from Palace/Bournemouth/ Southampton at the low end with two each , up to Arsenal (10), Tottenham (11) , Chelsea (12), Man Utd (13) and Man City (16). 

 

Not sure what City have been up to in the interim, but Erling Haaland and Riyad Mahrez will have been able to train with Pep in the Guardiola back garden as pretty much every other senior player is away!

 

XP , as always, makes interesting reading and averaged out across several sites........

 

Man City 34

Arsenal 32

Newcastle 28

Liverpool 25

Tottenham 24

Brighton 24 

West Ham 21 

Villa 20

Brentford 20

Leeds 19

Man Utd 19

Chelsea 18

Leicester 18

Palace 16

Fulham 16

Wolves 14

Southampton 13

Everton 10

Forest 8

Bournemouth 7

 

I am going to run these alongside BC and ITB numbers, with weighting given to the last 6-8 games and allowance made for the level of opponent faced. If we also bear in mind that we have something of a re-start and who traditionally begins the campaign well and who has been most (or least) hampered by the WC break, that should leave us in a good position for the Christmas/ New Year fixtures. 

 

One team I would like to discuss today is Newcastle United, I didn't want to like them because of the owners, but if we went down that route there would not be many big teams we would be OK with in world football! However, it is hard not to be impressed and they are third on merit , are genuine Champions League contenders, have no European commitments and have just five players away at the WC, by the time the next one comes around you can be rather sure it will be more on Manchester City levels.

 

They have lost just once, 2-1 away at Anfield to a 99th minute winner (!), they were outplayed that day to be fair, but led for 25 minutes and should have held on. If we look at the whole of 2022, they have a 20-8-6 record , that equates to 76 points over a full season and will always be good for third as a minimum. When we add in that, as they entered the New Year, they were 1-8-10 , it is even more remarkable. Head coach Eddie Howe was seen by many as a short term appointment, but he sorted them out in double quick time, especially defensively, yes, money was (almost) no object, but they conceded just 20 goals across the final 19 games last season, after given up 42 in the first 19 and this season they have the best defensive record in the EPL (0.73 goals pg).

 

 United are the only team in the top 6 not in Europe, have already played away to three of the Big 6 and have unlimited funds to spend, yes there is FFP to "consider", but many clubs don't give a hoot about that and the EPL and EFL always act cowardly in terms of enforcing those rules. But anyway, it is not an immediate concern, United were run poorly off the pitch under the Mike Ashley tenure with regard to income, so they are able to spend 80% of extra commercial income on player funds and this has already started to arrive and sorry to be a cynic, but that also offers a "workaround" if any were needed. "Oh, a Saudi company wants stadium naming rights !" Love Ashley or hate him (is anyone in the former group ?) he did run Newcastle like his Sports Direct (first store opened in Maidenhead where I live, but proud to say I only recently learned that and have never been inside!) business and spent little, so there is leeway there in any case. Basically, if the Saudi owners are told they need to spend x to secure top 4, their only question is likely to be, are you sure you don't need y or z too! 

 

Not sure who else will be in that position in January and that includes pretty much all the Big 6 clubs and early days, but we are surely transitioning to a Big 7.

 

Notes on their pre break start at home to Chelsea are reproduced at the foot of this email, they won that 1-0 and won xG 1.41-0.36 , BC's 2-0 and ITB 8-4, they were rather easy winners, allowed the Blues almost nothing offensively and are getting increasingly comfortable against these name opponents.

 

 

 

They have ground to make up on the top 2, but are 33-1 to win the EPL and 9-1 for top 2, so you do get a price. Arsenal did fade at the end of last season with 15 points from their final 10 games, losing to four teams who finished bottom half of the table and the Gunners will be mindful and wary of that and young squads can lose confidence as quickly as they find it and they are the youngest in the EPL by some way. 

 

 

Good luck!