Today's clubgow subscriber newsletter................
Jun 18, 2019
Newsletter was sent By email @ 09.20 Uk time, Antlers and Evergrande have both already won, Peru play later today...............
Tuesday June 17th
Next newsletter will be sent @ 10.00 UK on Wednesday.
Copa America: Bolivia - Peru
I spoke about Peru pre tournament.............
First up I would like to talk about Peru, they have a decent Copa record and at the last three runnings, they were 3rd in both 2011 and 2015 and won their group in 2016 which included Brazil, before losing unluckily in the quarter finals to Colombia on penalties. They have made at least the QF stage of the last 8 Copa America's.
They have an experienced group who are usually better than the sum of their parts, they qualified for the 2018 World Cup winning the playoff after finishing 5th in group qualifying, but only two points adrift of Argentina (3rd) and one behind Colombia (4th), they were unfortunate not to come through a group containing eventual champions France, gave Les Bleu a real scare and are capable of a good run here, they should progress and will, of course avoid Brazil in the last 8 which is a bonus.
In Russia 2018 ahead of their opener I wrote ............
Peru conceded the most goals of any of the five SA qualifiers, but only the top two scored more, this is a big deal for them, the last time they were at the World Cup was 1982, Thatcher was in her first term as PM, Argentina had just invaded the Falkland Islands (not a great year) and Thriller was released . I think they are going to be fun to watch, head coach Ricardo Gareca has famously been described as the 'lost' Rolling Stone and is an exponent of the beautiful game and playing football the right way and with their retro/iconic kit, they look ideally set up to attract plenty of neutral fans. Star name Paolo Guerrero is available for selection after having his drug ban overturned, he is not certain to start today, but might be an option from the bench, veteran Jefferson Farfan and Edison Flores have goals in them anyway, but it is the midfield bursting with young talent (five aged 22-24) that excites and they are not coming to Russia to sit back for too long.
They were unlucky to lose and not find a goal from 17 attempts in that game, including a penalty miss, 13 inside the box (big number at that level) with six on target and Kasper Schmeichel in the Danish goal making six saves. Then they took France all the way, again hit the woodwork and missed chances, before beating Australia 2-0.
Guerrero and Farfan are still in the squad, have 62 international goals between them, they are a bit long in the tooth now but still playing at a high level and will doubtless see this as one final swansong on the big stage, so should be very motivated.
They opened with a 0-0 draw against an improving Venezuela team and a point was the least they deserved with two goals denied by VAR, another by the woodwork and opposition keeper Wuilker Fariñez putting in a MOTM performance, which included an incredible late save. It was a pleasing enough performance, but with Brazil to play on Group A Matchday 3, they would like the win today to pretty much secure progression, especially if they could do so comfortably.
Bolivia looked poor coming into this tournament and did almost nothing in a 3-0 loss to Brazil in their opener to make us change our minds, before someone says it was the Samba Boys they were playing, it was far from a vintage Brazilian showing and the hosts were booed off by their own supporters at half time. Ahead of that my notes included.............
Bolivia are the lowest ranked team in the competion and away from high altitude they tend to struggle and a FIFA ranking of 63 is probably a little flattering if anything. They have a young, almost exclusively home based squad short on experience and have been cherry picked as ideal opposition for Brazil the cynics amongst us probably feel. They find goals hard to come by, but at least the youth in the squad means they come into this game without the baggage of Bolivian teams of the past.
Few positives coming in for them and, I guess, even fewer now and Peru, who have not lost to Bolivia on the last 12 occasions they have played away from the very high altitude of La Paz should ease home with something to spare.
1.75 units Peru -1.5 ball 2.48 asian line/Sportmarket.
AFC Champions League:
Last 16 games this week and some interesting match ups............
Kashima Antlers- Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Two J-League teams and doubtless this will be cagey, but Antlers are the more experienced on the international stage and, played over two legs, this will have a very different feel to a domestic game. They are also the better team IMO and over the last 13 months, so since last late Spring, Kashima have collected 23 more points from the 29 J-League games played. Extend that across a full campaign (34 games) and that equates to 75 and 48 points respectively, which last season would have seen Antlers champions by 7 points and Hiroshima finish in 9th.
I previewed Antlers home game with Cerezo Osaka on Friday ..............
I have spoken often over the last five years or so of Antlers being the best team in J-League, they have not won the title since 2016, but only failed to defend it on goal difference the following season and were third last year, also picked up an Emperor's Cup, Champions League and reaching the final of the World Club Cup in that three year stretch, making a big name for themselves on the international stage. All this success means that the early season, with AFC CL commitments and coming off a tight pre season, is always a bit of a struggle and I spoke about this two weeks ago ahead of a trip to Osaka to play Gamba........
They always have close games with Antlers and if Gamba approach this similarly to their last two home starts (FCT and Cerezo) then they can collect at least a point and with the handicap start, that has to be the way to go. Antlers have a lengthy injury list and are starting to look a little weary, they played Club World Cup until almost Christmas, then started their Champions League campaign on February 19th, they will be looking towards the upcoming mini break to recharge batteries.
That finished 1-1 which I supect suited all parties. It was as even as the scoreline suggests, but we see Gamba as better than bare results and Antlers did miss one big chance and hit the woodwork and on another day might well have collected all three points. As I suggested ahead of that, the two week break should have enabled them to rest up a little ahead of a big 11 days with this and two domestic CL fixtures ,they host Sanfrecce in the first knock out stage on Tuesday. Antlers are not too far off the title pace anyway, they sit in 5th, that is nine points adrift of leaders FC Tokyo who have a habit of fading , but only three points off second spot which is currently held by Frontale, who I will discuss shortly.
Cerezo are 9th, four points behind Antlers, they have perhaps been fortunate to have 20 points on board, they might easily have lost two of the games they won and I have some issues with them most of which were highlighted when they hosted Consadole back in April, those notes are reproduced below the good luck sign off and have extra relevance as it is Sapporo who are playing Frontale today. Cerezo are without forward Ken Tokura (played in first 11 starts) with a season ending injury. Antlers have injury issues (long term) but they are easing slightly, they might save a couple of players for Tuesday, but are very used to doing battle on 2-3 fronts and will want to refind some winning form to take into the midweek fixture. There is no doubt who is the stronger of these two and Kashima have a fearsome h2h record winning 13 of the last 18 meetings home and away and that 72%+ win rate alone suggests they are good value today.
They won that 2-0 , it was played with today in mind and a typical Kashima pre AFC showing, they are old hands at doing battle on multi fronts and know how to approach the CL games and when to up performance levels, last year they were champions, but did not win a group stage home game, only coming alive in the knockout stage, winning all four home games, scoring two + goals in each and winning three by 2 + goals. They again struggled to qualify from the group stage this year, but we can expect to start to move up through the gears and they will want to do the hard work today and give themselves an advantage for the return in 7 days time. They have scored 13 goals in 5 h2h games as host and I favour them today.
1.75 units Kashima Antlers -0.5 ball 2.40 asian line/Sportmarket.
Gaungzhou Evergrande Taobao- Shandong Luneng
Here we have an all Chinese match versus one team we know incredibly well and another less so. Gaungzhou Evergrande Taobao featured VERY heavily in my notes when they first burst onto the international scene, less so in recent campaigns, but ahead of their final group stage game four weeks ago ,when they desperately needed a win, I wrote ..................
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Guangzhou Evergrande Taobao made the clubgowi notes regularly and for several years from early in their asian dominance, we picked up on them as big spending improvers and largely stuck with GET through those golden years and two AFC Champions League titles ( 2013 and 2015). They have not made the notes too much subsequently, but yesterday I referred to a win over SIPG from 2017 and I have highlighted a couple of lines this morning.........
Shanghai featured in my notes several times two years ago and ahead of a huge knockout stage second leg clash with long time clubgowi favourite Guangzhou Evergrande my notes included ............
Guangzhou Evergrande have been the dominant force in Chinese football and pretty much the Asian game since they were promoted to Super League in 2010, they have won the domestic league all six subsequent seasons ,are on course for a seventh ( 8 point lead with six rounds left to play) and are two time Champions League winners. That was why their 4-0 first leg loss to Shanghai sent such a shock wave around Asia.
SIPG have been amongst the biggest spenders in a country full of them and their squad includes Oscar, Elkeson and Hulk, along with Ricardo Carvalho and they are coached by André Villas-Boas, but that was still an amazing result and they have trailed Guangzhou by eight points across 24 league games. It has been all about home form for Shanghai and they have won just 4/12 on the road, but are 10-2-0 in their own stadium, averaging 3.0 goals per game.
We can make some excuses for GET, Luiz Felipe Scolari certainly did ,they sold Paulinho to Barcelona just before the first leg and the head coach said "we paid the price for the absence of Paulinho, Huang Bowen and Mei Fang ." They will be without the same players today and Zheng Zhi will be a game time decision. Scolari has never been one to get his excuses in slowly, but they will not wash if his side do not restore some pride today. They still have Alan , Ricardo Goulart and returning Muriqui in the squad , the latter was bought in to replace Paulinho, he was the top scorer in this competition in 2013, Goulart in 2015 and the hosts offensive threat remains. SIPG are without several players themselves, including Fu Huan and He Guan who are both suspended. The visitors are nowhere near as effective on the road, that has stopped them putting in a real title challenge and they also lost away to Urawa Reds and Western Sydney Wanderers in the group stage of this competition and given that they do not need to win, only to avoid defeat by four goals and that surely GET and Scolari have to put in a tremendous effort today and at least show some fight and, at some stage over the 90 minutes, at least give some hope to their loyal support. It has to be the home win.
GET almost turned that around winning 5-1 and SIPG going through on away goals !
Paulinho has now returned to the club from Barcelona, first on loan, the deal being made permanent (42m euros) in January of this year, Alan and Ricardo Goulart ( see both above) are still registered with GET, but are out on season long loans. Anderson Talisca is the latest Brazilian to arrive (from Besiktas for 25m including an initial loan fee) and he has been scoring incredibly freely, with 23 goals and 8 assists in 26 Super League outings and 4 goals in 4 CL starts . He has been injured this last month and missed four games, but returned at the weekend and scored, with Paulinho providing the assist and also scoring himself, so both stars arrive in form. Head coach is now all time great defender Fabio Cannavaro in his second spell at the club.
GET have to win today to progress, any other result will see them eliminated at Daegu's expense. The South Korean CL dominance of the competition feel like a thing of the past and only one of their 11 titles have come in the last six years. Daegu FC were never a big player and were actually only formed in 2002, they were second tier in 2016, have never finished higher than 7th in the top division (13 attempts) and only got into the CL for the first time this season as domestic cup winners. They are currently 4th, so are at an historic high point, but they have limited funds, their budget is tiny, it would not pay GET's cofee bill, they play before small crowds and whilst they have three Brazilians in the team, I doubt Paulinho or Talisca even know who they are. Daegu are very much the poor relation, that doesn't mean they cannot win, but more quality and far more experience in the GET squad and they have been here and done it all before and usually produce the goods when the pressure in on. The visitors are coming to defend, there is no doubt about that, but GET have faced that regualarly and the return of Talisca, who one regular Super League reporter described as the best player in China, is huge.
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They won that 1-0, it was a professional performance and the result never really felt in doubt. They have stepped up a level since, confidence breeds confidence and they have won five from five since writing those notes, scoring 14 goals, along with four clean sheets. Paulinho ( see above) has found his A game in build up to this, also with three goals in his last two starts, including a brace in a super impressive 2-0 win at Shanghai SIPG last weekend, a team we have discussed often, SIPG superstars Hulk, Elkeson and Oscar all played and pretty well actually, but Paulinho was on a different level, head and shoulders above everyone else and if he plays even close to that level today, this is only going to end one way. GET have won the last four h2h meetings as hosts by a combined 9-2 (2-1 this season) and also won 4/6 played in Jinan , including a 4-1 victory in the most recent.
1.75 units Gaungzhou Evergrande Taobao-0.75 ball 2.18 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good Luck.
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