Monday July 13th
I should have pushed the button on Avai and Internacional yesterday, we had first half goals at Recife, Corinthians won easily, Rickie Fowler edged home in Scotland , Zach Johnson came within a whisker of winning at the John Deere and we were close to a classic day, but it was certainly profitable and one which provided a lot of excitement anyway .
There is unlikely to be too much of the latter today and options are limited, but I do have a couple of suggestions and the midweek ahead is busy and there are three emails scheduled for Wednesday..............
Tuesday 14/07: Email will be sent @ the standard time of 10.00 (UK) and will feature Champions League and Gold Cup action.
Email #1 @ 09.30 will cover a full round of "late morning" J-League action.
Email #2 @ 12.00 looking at the rest of the day's football .
Email #3 @ 16.00 will feature the Open Championship which gets underway on Thursday.
Thursday 16/07: Email at 10.00 covering golf and football , plus schedule for what will be a busier than even usual weekend ahead.
CONCACAF Gold Cup:
Honduras - Haiti
Today sees the final two games in Group A, the US lead with a perfect six points and have already claimed top spot, Panama are in second with two points, Honduras and Haiti are tied on a sinle point, with the Hondurans holding third by virtue of having scored more goals.
Tie breaker criteria for the group is points, goal difference, number of goals scored, h2h record (points only), drawing of lots.
Tie breaker to decide the two best third placed teams is 1-3 of above citeria and then the drawing of lots.
Obviously the US have nothing to play for, but are looking to ride the tidal wave of interest from the Women's World Cup win and big MLS signings, they also have a perfect 3/3 record at Sporting Park to defend. They might also look to eliminate Panama, who they faced in the last final, seeing them as a potential threat, but of course, all this still doesn't add up to the same motivation as their opponent has. A point would probably be enough for Panama to progress and it would even secure second spot if the match earlier in the evening was drawn, but all three points will probably be needed to clinch the runner up spot and that would (almost certainly) mean avoiding Mexico until the final.
Honduras will secure third with a draw. but two points and a minus goal difference might well not be enough, as only two of the three third placed teams progress, Haiti are out unless they win and surely we will see a positive result for one of these two. The winner would have a good chance of clinching second spot as then Panama would need all three points to finish runner up.
We can start with the earlier match ( the games are placed back to back in the same stadium), the US, who have actually not played particularly well, could have dropped points to both, Honduras are very well organised, have a real talent in Andy Najar and can be a very intimidating, physical side, something we have seen from them previously. Haiti's build up play was good and they showed more offensively than against Panama, but do not pose a huge goal scoring threat, although they did have 15 attempts on goal against the hosts. They will be without defensive midfielder Jean Alexandre today who is suspended, but surely we will see a start for very talented Jeff Louis who only played 25 minutes against the US, being "rested" with this match in mind.
Only one FIFA ranking place between these two and if we just view the matches against the US as a guide, it is hard to justify the circa 5.0 quotes about Haiti winning, especially as any other result is going to see them eliminated, the problem is that my head is telling me that they could get bullied out of this, so I will go small and blue, but there is never anything wrong with taking odds which just seem wrong............ 1 unit Haiti to win (-0.5 ball) 4.75-5.0 general quote.
I was quite keen on Panama coming into this tournament and ahead of their opener with Haiti wrote .............
This will be the 13th Gold Cup, the US and Mexico have won 11 of the previous 12 between them and contested five finals including three of the last four and that is what the organisers are hoping for again this year, hence the very favourable draw for that to come about. However, Panama did make the final in 2013 , had an earlier runner up place to their name and made the semis in 2011 and quite rightly see themselves as a major contender.Los Canaleros played two matches in build up with Ecuador and appear well prepared for this event, the same cannot be said for the Haitians who have had just a single game ( 2-2 draw with China) in the last eight months and are going to "bond" as they go along, which was kind of their game plan in 2013 when they lost their opener to Honduras 2-0. They do have a little talent in the team, notably Jeff Louis of Standard Liege, who long term readers might recall I was very keen on whilst he was at Nancy, but they look to match up poorly to me against the very athletic and experienced Panama squad. Ten of their players have 50 + caps and they have three very prolific frontmen in Gabriel Torres, Luis Tejada and especially Blas Perez who is going to be very much at home here with the FC Dallas striker playing in his home stadium tonight. He is extremely strong and good in the air and has a bit of a reputation for being physical and if Panama can isolate him against one or two of the smaller defenders and there are several, that could produce big dividends.
Panama did largely dominate that game and then again "blew" a lead against the Hondurans and have led for 90 minutes in total across the two matches. They have not seen out the final 20 minutes that well in either game, but I feel that will be less of a concern this evening, the US have scored all their three goals in the first hour or so and will not be overly pressing late in this game with so little at stake for them and with another three matches to play. Head coach Jurgen Klinsmann rotated heavily, especially at the back between the first two games and will surely do so again this evening. Panama have a decent record against the US in Gold Cup competition, they have lost three of the six meetings , but all by a single goal and they have a win and two draws in the other three and getting odds against and half our money back with a one goal defeat about a team with all the motivation looks the way to go, but not a day I want to get overly involved in, so ............
1.25 units Panama +0.75 ball 2.14 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good Luck.
