Today's subscriber notes ran to 5,800 words and I previewed eight games, putting up selections in seven of those. You can read one of those below.
I also spoke about one football team today who are missing a player without whom they are 0-0-6 this season, conceding at the rate of 2.33 per game, two or more in all six , when he plays, they are giving up just 1.0 per game, 1.33 goals less ! Last season they conceded 29 in 15 without him, 20 in 23 when he started, again , over a goal per game( 1.06) more in his absence !
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NFL post season ...........
Four wild card games this weekend, before the four divisional winners with the best regular season record enter the fray next week.
It is hard, but not impossible to play the extra week and usually games on the road and still win the Super Bowl and 8 teams have done so since the expansion and introduction of four w/c games 26 years ago. However, there were none in the first seven of those, two in the next eight seasons and 6 in the last 11, so you can make a case for it becoming more and more common and the four winners from this weekend being of a similar standard to those with byes over much of the last decade.
Having said that, people often talk about homefield advantage being key in post season and I have had a look to see just how important it has been historically.
Since 1940, there have been 473 playoff games with one team playing at home and their win record is 67.4% and that is more than 10% higher than in regular season games, if we look at playoff teams meeting in the regular season, the post season win rate is still 6% higher and it is obvious that the numbers support the concensus. Last season all four wild card games were won by visiting teams, but the last two years have still seen 70% home wins and that is made lopsided by the Divisional Round games, but we can save that for next weekend.
Yes, home teams have an additional advantage in the post season, but no one is out of Super Bowl contention and the four winners from this weekend , will feel they are battle hardened and have momentum, but it is tough to go against that 67.4% twice, let alone three times.
Oakland Raiders @ Houston Texans
I got the Raiders totally wrong last week and without Derek Carr they were totally lost at Denver , putting up just 228 yards of offensive and one run by Washington aside, 2.31 yards average on 16 carries and they completed on only 2/11 third down plays. That was the only game Carr was not suited up for in three seasons and it was a disaster ! Now they have to face the #1 ranked defense in the NFL and it is hard to see them having much success. They did beat the Texans on the road in Week 11, but both teams were playing "away" with the game held in Mexico City, I felt that suited the Raiders and went with them to win by a TD ...................
Texans won last time out on the road, edging past the 2-8 Jaguars in a close one and they had the advantage of coming off a bye week. They have , however, looked very suspect on previous trips out of the Lone Star state and lost 0-27 to the 8-2 Patriots, 13-31 to the 6-4 Vikings and 9-27 to the 7-3 Broncos and scored just a single touchdown across those three games. Now they travel to face the 7-2 Raiders , who themselves won 30-20 in Denver two weeks ago and have since had 15 days, to rest, recover , prepare and bask in that win. Loss for Kansas City last night is further incentive for the Raiders to go 8-2, that would give them some daylight at the top of the AFC West. They took their scoring form, but not the penalties from Florida to California and can built on that in Mexico City this evening.
I spoke about their ill disciplined (bit of an understatement) display in Tampa ahead of the Bucs game with the Falcons ...............
This is a bit of a no brainer for me, which is always a little dangerous. Tampa lost by six in overtime to the Oakland Raiders at the weekend , when my notes included ...........
Oakland won 33-16 (over Jacksonville) and it was a comfortable win, not allowing the Jags a touchdown until the 4th quarter by which time it was game over !
They have stayed in Florida to play the Bucs and that means the strange situation where the visiting team have done less travelling in build up, with Tampa having been to the West Coast and back to play the 49ers. The Raiders also allowed any family members who wanted to come to do so and that feels like a good decision, with my usual reasoning against extended periods away, being the disruption to normal family life. Oakland are 4-0 on the road, Tampa 0-2 at home and the Bucs have given up a lot of points here to the Rams and Broncos, only scoring seven against the latter, who are going toe to toe with the Raiders at the top of the AFC West. Tampa RB Doug Martin is sidelined again, which makes for a more one dimensional Bucs offense and even with the Raiders "big play" issues that makes it so much easier the defend.
The Raiders made hard work of that win, but did win despite doing their very best and then some, to gift the victory to the Bucs, Oakland not only shot themselves in the foot, but also reloaded the gun for Tampa time and time again, committing a NFL record high 23 penaties for 200 yards. Some teams feel they have done really well on offense if they put up 300 yards and the Raiders gifted two thirds of that to the Bucs and still won. That must have raised a lot of questions at boardroom level for Tampa and four days is no time to sort out those kind of issues. They also went to the West Coast and back the previous week and now have the quick turnaround to handle and it has been a very demanding 14 days or so for them.
I don't really see how Tampa can win this, or at least struggle to make a case for them to do so...... they will not be gited 200 yards by the Falcons, they do not have a balance offense and it is very hard to see them winning a shootout against the #1 ranked offense in the league, they are 0-3 at home, where they have lost 16 of 19 and allowed the Raiders to complete for 40 of 59 and a franchise high 513 yards and four touchdowns and the Bucs have no time to solve any of their many issues. Falcons by 7-10 points.
That the Raiders can commit so many infractions and still put up those kind of numbers, is both admirable and frustrating bbut if that doesn't stop them winning, it is hard to know what will ! Against Denver they kept the penalties down to a very manageable eight and it was a very impressive performance they had possession for 41.28 minutes and unlike in football nowadays, this is a key stat and it is very difficult to score in the NFL when you do not have the ball and your opponent is eating up the clock. A win tonight would see Oakland tied with the Patriots on 8-2 as the #1 team in the Conference and that is a big additional incentive . Home head coach Jack Del Rio is talking up a good game: "We're growing to expect success, we know we're a good team."
This is a "road" game for both, there is no doubt who is better away from home (Oakland are 5-0), the unknown factor is that this is being played as part of the international series and in Mexico City at the Azteca Stadium, which is 2,250m above sea level. Add in the pollution and this is going to place huge demands on some very big bodies.
I have spoken a lot about altitude in the past, sportsmen and training staff know far better how to deal with it now and the Raiders have done a lot of work on this, they have left Oakland as late as possible to minimise the effects ( alternative would be to have arrived very early), they have been training in "elevation masks" and have more experience of altitude, playing in Denver each year ( which is at 1,600m) and several of their players went to college at "altitude". The kickers will love it, Raiders Sebastian Janikowski, once kicked a 63-yard field goal in Denver and that could easily be beaten tonight. The Raiders seem to be making less of the conditions, the Texans hardly handled the altitude in Denver well and have ordered players not to leave their hotel, the bye week for Oakland should really give them a big advantage this time. Latavius Murray who ran for three touchdowns against the Broncos, has been on two scouting missions to Mexico City for the Raiders and should feel as comfortable as anyone this evening.The conditions are an unknown, but I have to suggest Oakland by 7.
They won by exactly those seven points 27-20, ending the game the stronger and coming from behind in the fourth quarter when the Texans ran out of steam. However, three things, they had Carr, who led them to victory with two late touchdown passes, they were held to 120 yards for three quarters with no running game at all and conditions will suit the Texans much better today. Texans are 7/8 at home, with their only loss coming days after the trip to Mexico and now all the advantages are with them.
Hosts have quarterback issues themselves with Brock Osweiler having a $72m shoot himself in the foot tendency and some reviewers have called Osweiler- Connor Cook (Raiders third string starter) the worst quarterback match up in post season history ! I did laugh when someone said that Osweiler plays as though he had been born with feet instead of hands, which would explain his troubles, but in truth, he needs to just not make any mistakes and let the defense do their job. The comments are tough on Cook, who will be making his first ever NFL start, that's NFL by the way , not playoff ! Texans to win despite, not because of Osweiler.
1.75 units Houston Texans -4 points 1.97 Pinnacle/Vegas Line/Sportmarket.
Good Luck.
