UEFA Champions League: Malmo FF- Red Bull Salzburg
Salzburg won the first leg 2-0 with two second half goals, the last of which came in the 89th minute courtesy of a "suspect" penalty, which was a little frustrating as we had taken MFF +1.25 goals, ahead of that match I wrote ......
I do not want to spend too long on this, Malmo will travel with confidence after knocking Red Bull out at the play off stage last season and the hosts look, at least right now weaker and less experienced, this time round. They have a huge number of young and inexperienced players looking to gel, with an average squad aged of just 22 and 21 of the group aged 22 or younger, with several teenagers likely to start and to implement a pressing style they are still coming to terms with. They created plenty of chances, but ultimately lost their opener to newly promoted SV Mattersburg at the weekend, they will not be as advanced in fitness terms as when they played MFF last year and the team is almost certainly not as strong. The visitors won for us at Zalgris Vilnius last week.............
Winner of this will tie ( first leg ended 0-0 in Sweden) will face a qualifying 3rd round match up with Red Bull Salzburg, that looks a big ask, but Malmo beat the Austrian side in the decisive Play-off round last season to make the group stage, winning the home leg 3-0 and will perhaps not be as fearful of Red Bull as the other teams in the competition at this stage. In the second round last year, the Swedish champions also make hard work of things, drawing 0-0 at home to FK Ventspils, before winning the second leg 1-0, they dominated both legs there creating a very similar number of chances and offensive opportunities in each and not allowing their opponent an attempt on target across the 180 minutes. Malmo played at a very similar level (identical record) both home and away last season and it has been pretty much the same story this time round.
The hosts have never made it beyond this stage in qualifying, losing in the second round three times at home without scoring, in the last two to Red Bull Salzburg and Dinamo Zagreb, both by 2-0 , so a bit of a formline with the Austrians and Dinamo are far from the force of old. I think it will be tough for Vilnius to break that cycle and score and Malmo have scored in 12 straight road games and feel that there are clear indications that a recent dip in form is coming to an end. They performed really well in an away game to Orebro at the weekend, especially in the first half which they dominated and whilst they had to ultimately settle for a share of the points, there was a lot to take from the performance. They will be delighted with a first goal in five starts for Markus Rosenborg, who had seven goals in the competition last year in what was a hugeseason for him....25 goals and 15 assists in 45 appearances for MFF. If he can find that level, or even close, from now on in, it could be a big second half of 2015 for Malmo (17 of his goals last season came after the third week of July), for the moment, they will settle for a win this evening.
Malmo played a high energy game at Orebro and feel they have quite a big edge in fitness over Zalgris who looked exhausted at the end of the game last week and not having played a match in 24 days, last week aside, has probably blunted their match fitness. Several hundred visiting supporters have made the trip to Lithuania and can go home happy.
They won that 1-0, followed up with a 3-0 win at GIF at the weekend, with another goal from Rosenborg ( see above) and look to be running into form at the perfect time. They can make their fitness levels and high tempo style pay and go back to Sweden all square, or at worse with a minimum margin defeat.
Red Bull started very aggressively, but chances were at a premium before the break, MFF had a good chance for 1-1 before conceding that late second goal and that would have put a different complexion on the tie. However, I have to say that Salzburg deserved to win and coming here at 2-0 is very different from the 2-1 lead they held last year, but they will be mindful that they lost 3-0 in Sweden just 49 weeks ago and they again be greeted by a packed and noisy Swedbank Stadion, with the crowd doing their best for their team. MFF will play with high energy, they have a significant physical advantage and the vistors arrive without captain and star player Jonatan Soriano and several others including Marco Djuricin, Valentino Lazaro and Christian Schwegler and are a little short on the right flank and inexperienced in key areas and this might have more relevance this evening on the road. Salzburg have also lost their first two Bundesliga games, already trail leaders Rapid by six points and although Champions League is a priority, they will therefore have to take into account their trip to Admira on Saturday. Given that and the fact that they can lose by one (two if they score) and still qualify, I see decent value in the hosts at big odds against with the draw no bet option.
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Good Luck.
