French Open Tennis: ATP: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga- Stanislas Wawrinka ( written June 5th)


Jo-Wilfried Tsonga did us a favour by beating Tomas Berdych at big odds on Monday ..........

Berdych has a good record (7-2) against JWT, but the pair have never met in a slam or on "real" clay. This is the Czech world number 4's least favourite surface and he has never beaten a top class clay court player at Roland Garros. I can accept him as favourite today, but odds of sub 1.40 just seem wrong. We have seen glimpses that Tsonga is coming back to form, he will have massive home support and is at his best, better on clay than Berdych IMO, the Frenchman has often run of steam in Week 2 here, paying the price for two many long matches, once the really crunch games came along, but at times in Paris in recent years he has been unplayable and he has been close to the final on a couple of occasions, something we touched upon last year ahead of his match with Novak Djokovic .....However, we are playing at Roland Garros, where JWT will have the Parisian crowd firmly on his side and both will be mindful of their epic battle here two years ago, where Djokovic was very fortunate to win in five sets, with Tsonga blowing four match points in the fourth set. Novak ran away with the fifth and JWT started his first ever quarter final at RG very nervously, also losing the first very quickly, but had largely dominated the middle three sets and having also made a deep run here last year ( semi's) , I do not see nerves playing any major part this time round with the Frenchman having nothing to lose. His very heavy forehands are a massive weapon on this surface and he is a "stonger" Marin Cilic who kept Djokovic on court for four sets and well over three hours in round 3, in that game, Djokovic hit more unforced errors than winners and there might again be a few gifted points today, which is always a bonus when playing one of the best players on the planet/all time.JWT can be hit and miss at times, but that is kind of what you want if you are looking for an upset.

He comes into this match having played far fewer games than in previous years and I just cannot let him go unbacked.
 

JWT took that in four sets and was then taken to five by Kei Nishikori in the quarter final and now the games are piling up and that has to be a concern, as it has been in the past. I was not keen on his celebration after his last win, that looked too much like someone who had reached their target (exceeded it ?) for the tournament and given that he has struggled with two week events previously, at the business end and is heavily built, the 30°+ forecast for this afternoon and it will feel hotter with storms in the area, which is way beyond anything we have seen on tour for months, is not in his favour.
 

Stanislas Wawrinka also served us well with his demolition of Roger Federer on Tuesday......
 

Wawrinka won the Junior title here and considers clay his best surface, but has never brought his A game to Paris in the Men's event, he was 8-2 on the surface against top 10 players over the last three years, losing only to Nadal and including a bit of a demolition of Federer in Monte Carlo last year, before he lost ro RF in Rome recently. I am not too bothered about that, it was the first meeting since the "spat" at the ATP finals and Federer was always likely to handle that better and as I said before, this year was always about this week in Paris and he apparently told his agent months ago, to look for something big at Roland Garros and to judge his season only on this fortnight. He has taken at least a set from each of the previous four meetings and won convincingly the only match up on clay in that sequence. I think that he is a wonderful price today.
 

Wawrinka promised something special at RG months ago ( see above) and delivered and I expect him to follow up today, on top of my other concerns for JWT, I doubt he will have handled the long break from the quarters to semis as well as SW, the Frenchman will have been under intense media pressure for his time and will doubtless be nervous and we have seen him implode here before ( versus Djokovic last year for one), whereas, I suspect Wawrinka will have used it to mainly bask in his win over Federer. H2h wise the pair are level at 3-3 , on clay it is 3-2 to the Swiss player, they are 1-1 here at RG, both very long matches, but JWT's game has not really progressed since the last of those, whereas Wawrinka, especially in terms of self belief, is a much better player now . In their last meeting, which came in the Davis Cup final at the end of last year, a match played in similar high pressure conditions and in France, Wawrinka dominated, hitting 61 winners and he was all over JWT's second serve like a rash, allowing the Frenchman just 12 points from 36, Tsonga also managed only sub 30% points on return and it was a far more comprehensive beating than the 3-1 set victory suggests, the +9 game margin is a better reflection.