US Open Tennis betting tip: Victoria Azarenka- Elise Mertens

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US Open Tennis: Victoria Azarenka- Elise Mertens
 
 
This is Elise Mertens' 16th post lockdown start, her 10th on these courts after a semi final run at the Western & Southern , much has been made of her 12 wins since the restart but she has lost 2 of the only 3 she has played versus players ranked inside the top 40 and whilst that win was agaisnt Sofia Kenin in the last round, the American was a no show and surely we can expect far more from Victoria Azarenka, who I am sure would like the chance to battle with Serena again on a big stage almost as much as she wants this title. Notes on her R16 game are below the "good luck" sign off, she lost the opening set there but only five game subsequently and said afterwards:
 

Q. Can you talk through the match a little bit, turning it around? Sounded like you were impressed by her game, another young player coming up.

VICTORIA AZARENKA: Yeah, she was very, very impressive. She had a great game, very smart game. A lot of variety. She can create good power. She can create slice. She can create angles. She serves and volleys.

She's very, very complete player. That's really, really cool to see. Obviously I had to find many solutions. One way wasn't going to work because of the variety that she brings.

Especially the first set, I felt like I was rushing some of the balls. I missed a couple of, like, easier balls. Every time I would come into the net, she would pass me. I was a little annoyed by that, I'm not going to lie.

It was great. She has a great serve. Yeah, I was very impressed. I hope she continues to show really good results. I feel like she has a game for great results.

But I enjoyed myself a lot. It was fun to be able to turn it around, to find solutions today on the court, and have a great match. I really enjoyed it. I thought it was a great quality from both of us.

Q. What were the solutions that you found?

VICTORIA AZARENKA: Well, I felt that I had to be a little bit more aggressive, like not letting her move me that much around, even though I knew it was going to happen, and really make her move.

I knew that physically I'm very ready, so for her to beat me she had to play three hours the same way she played at the beginning. I was pretty confident that I'm able to sustain my level. But if she brings that level for three hours, then that's too good.

I was confident that I won't drop my level too much.

I really like those highlighted comments.
 
But this is more about having some issues with Mertens, maybe she has made the breakthrough now, but I want to see it more regularly, she is 14-38 against top 20 ranked players and 2-11 in the last 13 which includes the win over Kenin so no real evidence she has turned a corner. I must admit I have never seen a "top" player so happy to win a QF as she was at the Western & Southern , she must have had face ache from the amount of smiling she was doing, which is great, but also kind of indicates that this is a player still not used to winning big games , or maybe expecting to and that is what her results suggest.
 
1.75 units Victoria Azarenka -2 games 2.13 Pinnacle/ Sportmarket Pro.
 
 
Good luck !
 
 
Victoria Azarenka - Karolina Muchova
 
The last time we discussed Victoria Azarenka she was rightfully reclaiming her Tennis Queen of Belarus crown by defeating Aryna Sabalenka....................
 
These two met here last year in R1 with Aryna Sabalenka coming from a set down to win in three, she played the big points better, but made an awful lot of errors ( 13 double faults and 43 unforced errors) and if she puts in a similar showing today, it is only going to end one way. Sabalenka is very talented and has a big game, but her career has stalled around the #10 to #15 ranking and she has only broken into the top ten twice, only to #9 and briefly on each occasion and the next step forward seems a bit of a stumbling block. This is the battle for the Queen of Belarus tennis title and it feels like time for Azarenka to retain her crown. A win here would take her very close to a top 20 return, it might actually seal it and that is a huge incentive for the 31yo who was last ranked that high in May 2016, but she had been top 5 for three years straight between April 2011 and March 2014 including many weeks at #1. Last week, for the first time since her return, she convinced me that a return to at least the top 10 was possible ...............
 
I opposed Azarenka in the previous round ( see Monday notes) against Caroline Garcia, it was an odd match as Azarenka won 6-2 , 7-6 but it felt much closer and might have gone the other way. Having said that, it was very high quality tennis, as good as anything we saw yesterday , with very few errors ,only 8 unforced from Azarenka along with 20 winners and she played the biggest points really well and it might be the best we have seen from her in a couple of years, she also looked fit and focussed . I was impressed to be honest.
 
She meets another Frenchwoman today in Alize Cornet and one she has had great success against, winning all six previous meetings and on three different surfaces. Yesterday I opened my notes with: These courts in NY also look faster than we usually see at the US Open , no surprise as in March this year Flushing Meadow switched to Laykold hard courts made by Advanced Polymer Technology, replacing the DecoTurf that had been in use since 1978. This is the same surface as at the Miami Open. Also saying that " in her prime, only Serena was better on those Miami Open courts than Azarenka".Maybe she just loves the feel of this surface under her feet and the hot weather didn't seem to bother her like it did others .
 
It is easy to get caught out as we have not seen 3-4 consecutive performances from VA since her return to tennis, but this is the very first time I have felt she might kick on and maybe even make a run back at the top ten.
 
She won the event and was disappointed that Naomi Osaka withdrew from the final and you do feel that it is the competition and these kind of matches that Azarenka missed as much as titles . Obviously the courts and conditions here suit her well and we have never seen Sabalenka at her best in slams where she has a 9-10 record and is 2-3 in R2, Azarenka's record is 128-46 and 35-4 respectively. Her defeats at this stage were an early retirement and to a current and recent world #1. The comeback to gather momentum.
 
Vika won 1&3 and then beat Swiatek 4&2 she is playing as well as anyone apart from Jennifer Brady I guess and looks very relaxed off court , watching tennis, just enjoying herself and after so long in the wilderness why not ? Just let it all sink in and make the most of every moment.
 
24 yo Karolina Muchova is on the verge of breaking into the top 20 for the first time, but she has a big issue with higher ranked players on this surface or even those ranked similarly. She is 14-4 versus those who are in the 51-100 bracket, but 9-12 v top 50, 3-11 against top 20 and 0-7 versus top 10 (only winning two sets). This is only her 6th R4 match on the surface in any event, Azarenka has played 85, won 10 of the last 11 in two sets and within that category is 50-7 against opponents ranked 21+. Vika also has 191 wins v top 50, 92 v top 20 and 54 against the cream of the WTA (top10). Muchova is playing late in the day versus a seasoned player who is in her best form for years and very hungry, it has been a long wait to play this match for the younger girl who has still to prove she can cut it on this surface against the best. Vika is very comfortable on Louis Armstrong where she is making her third straight start and where Muchova has yet to play.

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