The Usual Suspects .............................
Jul 30, 2019
Money talks ................
12 months ago, ahead of the 2018-19 Premier League season I wrote ..............
Big 6 have filled top 6 places in the Premier League in three of the last four seasons, the blip was in 2015-16 and what an odd campaign that was, not just because Leicester City won, but that Liverpool and Chelsea also finished outside the top 7 and City won with the second lowest points total of the millenium. Arsenal were second with 71 points, which is over 10 points less than the norm for the runner up and that season was so far out of kilter to anything before or since, that it is best ignored...........unless you are a Leicester City supporter !
The Foxes aside, the last non big 6 team to break into the top 3 was Newcastle United in 2003 and it will be incredibly hard for anyone to snap the monopoly. One or even two of the six can have a poor year, but by their standards that usually means 5th or 6th anyway and doesn't leave much room for anyone else, the biggest clubs are just too big and whilst everyone talks about the EPL riches and the 100m + you get just to compete in the PL, it is still only the tip of the iceberg for the elite, maybe only 20% of income, for the rest of the league maybe as much as 80-90%. So it enables them to compete in the top flight but not really with the big 6 and that is the way the top clubs like it and will do everything to maintain the status quo. When they make a signing now it is usually of the 40-50m + variety, the other 70% of the Premier League cannot operate at that level.
The top 6 averaged 78 points last season, the rest 41, which highlights the bridge the "also rans" have to cross to compete and being average and getting those 41 points will ensure survival and good money for club and high salaries for players, so is not a bad place to be and well run clubs like Burnley can first use the money to get things right off the pitch and then upgrade their playing staff over time. However, the issue is that all the while they are buidling/growing, they might be better equipped to survive, but getting further and further away from the Big 6.
The Big 6 clubs again filled the top 6 places and the worst of those, Manchester United, who finished sixth, collected nine points more than the team immediately below them and 23.5 more than the average of the other 14 top flight clubs.
Vysyble, the financial analysts, have released data which shows that the Big 6, thats Liverpool, Manchester United, Manchester City, Arsenal, Chelsea and Tottenham, share around £2.77billion of income, which is a £247million increase on the previous year. The other 14 clubs share £2.05 billion which is the pot of gold all Championship clubs are hunting, but it £10m down on the previous year. That means that 58% of the money is going to 20% of the clubs and that gap is increasing year on year. It would take a quantum leap for any other team to contend and we have had the miracle with Leicester City, so don't hold your breath for another any time soon and, even for a non Big 6 team to finish 5th or 6th would be a stunning achievement. The gap between the 6th (Tottenham) and 7th (Everton) biggest earners was a whopping £191m , the report notes that "in 2008/09, the gap between the 6th and 7th highest revenue earning clubs was just £1.88m.” Tottenham have just secured a new shirt sponsorship deal with AIA for £320m over 8 years, which is on another level to previous deals and Spurs also made a world record profit of £113m in 2017-18, add in the now completed new stadium and then remember that we are talking about the poor relation of the Big 6 ! As I type there have been four £50m transfers to Premier League clubs in this window, all to the usual suspects !
It is not just at this elite level that money dictates success, last week I looked at Ligue 2 budgets and noted that "last season the two promoted teams had a top 6 budget and another lost in the playoff final and the three relegated teams all had bottom five budgets." Of course, lower down the pyramid you can have success on less money, but to buck the trend you usually have to think outside the box. In the Championship for example there are always a number of teams with PL parachute payments and /or owners willing to gamble to get to the promised land and even flying close to the wind (flouting) in terms of Financial Fair Play Regulations (FFP), or exploiting loopholes like Aston Villa , Derby County, Sheffield Wednesday have by selling their stadiums to owners to comply with the EFL's profit and sustainability rules ! County reported a pre-tax profit of £14.6m after selling Pride Park stadium to owner Mel Morris for £80m (which was previously shown as a asset worth £41m !), it was the first time in 10 years that the Rams had recorded a profit.
In terms of that "original" thinking, my own club Brentford have stayed within FFP and finished top 11 for five straight seasons in the Championship, in a tiny stadium, on a bottom 6 (at best) budget, all the while making a circa £75m PROFIT in the transfer market. To put that into context Wolverhampton Wanderers' Chinese owners SPENT circa £80-100m in 18 months to secure their promotion to the top flight, but with no guarantee of success. This approach is why Brentford are often referred to, usually by me (!), as one of the most innovative clubs in world football. But it is very difficult (impossible ?) for other clubs to replicate what they have done..........there can only be six "Big 6" teams and there is only one Brentford !
Good Luck.
We don't just sell football betting tips, as you can see there is an extensive analysis behind our asian handicap selections. Subscribing to our sports betting advice service need not break the bank. Learn more by visiting our subscriptions page.
Sport:
Competition: