Villa looking to continue Palace's Selhurst Park (claret and) blues!
Feb 25, 2025
Premier League: Crystal Palace-Aston Villa
Talking of teams who are better on the road, none fit the bill more perfectly than Palace who recorded their sixth away win at Fulham over the weekend and played really well. However, they are back at Selhurst Park this evening and it is has been a very different story here, the atmosphere is usually good, but it is hardly an intimidating venue and ahead of their most recent start here, when they hosted Everton, and had all the advantages in terms of freshness and time to prepare, they still lost 2-1. We have been milking this system, back the Eagles on the road where they average 1.69 points and 1.46 goals and opposing them at home where they have collected 0.84 points and scored 0.92 goals per game. This feels very much of the if it ain't broke don't fix it variety, but I should point out that under head coach Oliver Glasner, Palace have had the better of these h2h games, which included a draw in the reverse fixture and 2-1 win at Villa Park in the League Cup both this season and a 5-0 win here at SP late last season. I suspect that game has been often discussed in build up by Unai Emery and his coaching staff and they will want to avenge it, or at least exorcise it from memory. It was an odd one, as it was party time for Villa who had already secured top 4 and a Champions League spot and were mentally lying on a beach somewhere.
Villa will be pleased with four points and four goals from b2b home games with Liverpool and Chelsea last week and ahead of the second I wrote .....
Quick turnaround for Villa who hosted Liverpool on Wednesday......
On Sunday Liverpool hosted Wolverhampton Wanderers and my notes included.....
Are Liverpool wobbling ? They did not play well at Plymouth, or particularly well against Everton and then, several players and Arne Slot and his staff lost it at the final whistle and that is usually a sign that they are feeling pressure. Of course, on paper this is a good fixture to steady the ship and get back on track. However, it is yet another quick turnaround so no time to work on much and this is their 13th start of 2025, all within 42 days and they have conceded in their last four home starts, six goals total. Also, Wolves are the best of the bottom four and by some way and that goes double offensively, as they have scored 34 goals, which is the same as 8th placed Villa, including 18 on the road, good for T8th. They are also much improved all round under head coach Vitor Pereira and he likes a row too, if Arne is up for another one, although Slot would have been outmatched by David Moyes in that regard if he had pushed things further at Goodison Park!
They did win (2-1) but were again outplayed for lengthy periods and incredibly, Wolves dominated the game statistically for non penalty goal play. The Reds were delighted with the points at the final whistle , but also relieved, they did not have an attempt on goal, not one, in the second half and this is not the team of early season, nowhere close!
Today they have yet another quick turnaround and they keep coming and they play Villa , Manchester City and Newcastle United in the next week. The hosts need a result and are super tough to beat at Villa Park, where they are unbeaten in 18 games, their only loss here coming in their first home match of the season. In that defeat and in 16 of the 19 contests they won xG and it goes without saying that they could not be facing Liverpool at a better time.
Villa continued that amazing home run with a 2-2 draw, they rode their luck and the visitors were the better team, but the hosts showed terrific fight and battled hard and well for their share of the points. Chelsea will arrive better rested, having not played for eight days since that 3-0 loss at Brighton ( see Saints -Seagulls notes below), but are struggling for form , have won just 2 of 10 against EPL teams and have conceded 12 goals in the last six and head coach Enzo Maresca is already coming under pressure and criticism that his style of play has become outdated. That conversation is for another day, but I do not see how they should be favoured at a solid opponent who pose a good goal threat and who are unbeaten in 19 games at home.
Villa created 2.3 xGF, 3 BC's and 35 TIPA's and they can score 2 goals here for the third time in five visits, third time in four if we only include games where they tried! This feels like a big game for Villa who are back in Champions League contention and they will want to secure that now that they have a taste for the cream of European football and they need to start picking up more away points. Their next three games are all on the road and, at least on paper, this is the easiest.
2.25 units Aston Villa to score "over" 1.5 goals @ 2.57 asian line.
Good luck!
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