Wednesday full clubgowi subscriber newsletter .......
Mar 17, 2021
Wednesday March 17th
Next newsletter will be sent @ 10:00 UK time on Thursday.
UEFA Champions League:
Chelsea- Atletico Madrid
Chelsea hold a 1-0 lead from the first leg which was played in Bucharest and we have discussed multiple times how improved they are under Thomas Tuchel, he is unbeaten in 12 low scoring (15 goals total) games in charge. My concern is that they might look to that incredible defensive record under the German coach (just 2 goals allowed) and play to hold on to what they already hold and Atletico are very experienced European campaigners , know that this is far from over and this time, Diego Simeone will be forced to let his team attack at some stage. I spoke ahead of their recent Madrid derby game with Real how too often all the talk of playing a more offensive style goes out of the window in the big games ................
This is probably the biggest game in Europe today with Atletico top of La Liga, five points ahead of Real and with a game in hand, it is set up ideally, as I suppose Atleti will sit back and make themselves hard to score against and Real cannot realistically win the title without the win today, as that would also leave them playing catch up with Barcelona. Atleti have shown us a more offensive side to their game this season and also last season to a degree, but the issue comes in the big games and the temptation is there for them to revert to type and play cautiously and we saw that in the Champions League loss to Chelsea. It is a flaw in their make up and I am not sure there is an easy solution under Diego Simeone, it is just the way he is !
But it is a little different when Simeone's hands are tied, like in that famous, now infamous, game at Anfield , when Atleti scored three goals from 2-0 down in extra time to win and progress in the tie and that was when Liverpool were good !
My feeling is that Atletico are a much better team when they relax a little and show more attacking intent and the change was originally made to a more offensive unit, to win games like this and now they and DM have no choice. I wouldn't be surprised to see extra time and like the level ball option with the draw a result Chelsea would gratefully accept.
2 units Atletico Madrid level ball 2.42 asian line/Sportmarket.
Bayern Munich - Lazio
We did ok with Lazio over the weekend when they hosted a poor Crotone side and very kindly both teams scored before the break .........
Lazio- Crotone is a very rare Friday lunchtime kick off which might give this game a different feel. Hard not to see the hosts coming out on top and they are desperate for the three points to stay in touch with the top four, but they often take a while to get going and they have a -3 home first half goal difference , which rises to +7 after the break, they have conceded 9/14 of goals as host in the opening 45 minutes. Crotone are not very good, but have scored 70% of away goals in the first half and are coming off a big and confidence boosting home win.
Pretty sure that Lazio will come on very strong after the break and any number of ways you could approach this, Crotone's best chance of scoring is surely early when they can ride their momentum from last week and try and catch the host cold. Both teams to score in the first half is a tempting 4.80 and I will suggest a small interest (1 unit).
We were not so fortunate with the first leg of this tie when Bayern won 4-1 in Rome and I felt the Lazio front two would cause plenty of problems for a high and vulnerable (it is all relative !) visiting back line ...........
Bayern have the same problems today and are suspect defensively and the high line they play is going to offer great incentive to Ciro Immobile and Joaquin Correa up front for Lazio who have the pace and movement to embarrass this visiting back line. I expect Bayern to progress over the two legs, but they are at their most vulnerable right now and Lazio know they have to go into the second leg with a lead or 0-0 draw and the latter is not really likely when Bayern play. Lazio scored four goals in the two group stage games with Dortmund also collecting 4 points and that will give them confidence today and I expect them to score twice, just as Frankfurt and Bielefeld did against the Bavarian giants, infact, both did it in the opening 45 minutes !
Correa did score and Lazio had 5 attempts on target, but to be honest, they were a bit of a no show.
Lazio have now conceded 11 goals in their last four starts, but are not out of top 4 contention just yet and might prioritise their upcoming league game, in fact, they almost certainly will, but head coach Simone Inzaghi said that this was the type of game the club wanted to play and that they would give of their best. Having said that, he also said the game was in Monaco ! So hopefully, even if he has gone there, the team has made their way to Munich !
Like the Crotone game and first leg, I feel we will see action again early and I like .............
1.25 units both teams to score in the first half 3.60 asian line/Pinnacle.
1.75 units Lazio to score "over" 1.5 goals 3.25 general quote.
Italy: Serie A: Torino- Sassuolo
This is one of Torino's two games in hand and they would move out of the drop zone with all three points, they made the weekend notes when they hosted leaders Internazionale and those notes are reproduced at the foot of this email.
Inter won that 2-1, but Torino had the same number of on target attempts, hit the woodwork with an absolute sitter of a chance which would have given them the lead and missed 3 BC's total. Inter were the better team of course, we expected that, but Torino created enough to have got some something from that and the performance should have at least encouraged them that they can give anyone a game and get that (winless) home monkey off their back.
Sassuolo were our team for many months through the second half of last year (post lockdown) and served us incredibly well, but have definitely regressed a little, they remain a top 10 team, but cannot (realistically) finish higher than their current position and they look virtually guaranteed for 8th or 9th, that is great for a club of their size and history, but motivation might be tough at times from here on in and they do concede a lot of goals. They have allowed the most amongst top half of the table teams and have not kept a clean sheet in 16 starts, conceding 2 or more in 9 of those.
Torino should have top scorer Andrea Belotti good to go this evening at least for an hour and Antonio Sanabria (see both players below) has two goals in two starts which is why he was bought into the club and all connected with Torino must be excited to see what these two can do (in tandem or not) over the closing couple of months of the campaign.
1.75 units Torino -0.25 ball 2.24 asian line/Sportmarket.
1.75 units Torino to score "over" 1.5 goals 2.20 general quote.
Good luck !
Serie A : Torino- Internazionale (written March 14th)
I previewed Inter's last away game, a trip to Parma who sit four points and one place below Torino in the table, that fixture took place 10 days ago...........
Parma are six points from safety and it is difficult to see right now how they are going to score enough goals to survive, they have managed just five at home all season , which is 1.66 fewer per game than Inter have scored as a road team. Parma have , however, scored four of those before the break and have led or been level at half time in 7/12 home starts.
Inter will open up a six point lead at the top of the table with the win and are looking for a 6th straight victory in the league (other five all came by 2+ goals), however, they have trailed or been level in 7/12 away starts at half time which mirrors Parma's stats as host. Inter are very strong in the second half, ranked #1 overall, at home and also on the road, they have scored 64% of away goals after the break and a whopping 48% in the first 30 minutes of the second period, when they have a 12-2 goal difference.
Inter should win, but sub 1.30 is not what we are looking for, Parma drew the away fixture 2-2 surprisingly enough and led 2-0 as they entered the 65th minute. That might give them confidence this evening that they can stay in this game a while and with the whole Serie A programme to themselves, they will certainly not wish to be humiliated. In 16 starts against top 7 opponents Parma have only once conceded in the opening quarter of the game and in 11 held out until at least the 42nd minute, conceding the opening goal after the break in 8 (50%). Therefore , surely more value in a small bet on draw half time/Inter full time at circa 4.0-4.33 (1.25 units), or for the brave amongst us, Parma/Inter @ circa 23.0-26.0.
That played out perfectly, 0-0 at half time, Inter scored in the 55th and 63rd minutes , with Parma pulling a consolation goal back later. That was only the second goal that Inter have conceded in winning their last 7 starts (18-2 goal difference) and they hold a six point lead at the top of the table and look set to claim their first Scudetto since 2009-10, by the time they travel to Turin to play Juve on Matchday 37 the aim is for the race to have already been run, but there is bound to be a slip somewhere along the line. Hopefully today !
Torino were on a lengthy unbeaten run and finally starting to post results in line with their abilities, prior to that shocking 4-2 loss away to Crotone last week ahead of which I wrote ..............
Crotone's time in the top flight appears to have been brief, following promotion last season, they are already nine points from safety and eight adrift of Torino who also have two games in hand. That is bad enough but the hosts have lost seven in a row by a combined 21-3 and their last home game was a 2-0 loss to 17th placed Cagliari the team the bottom three are looking to catch and who lost at home to Torino two weeks ago, ahead of which I wrote ...........
Stats since the turn of the year, 8 rounds for these four teams.
17th 17 points, xp 25 pts Torino 75-51 16-12
18th 15 points, xP 19 pts Cagliari 51-82 11-23
ITB created/conceded in the first column after the team name, BC's in blue type.
Torino made the notes last week when I wrote .............
Let's end on a high and that is Torino, look at their numbers ! In terms of ITB only three teams have created more and only four have conceded fewer ! They are top 8 for BC's . We already knew they posed a big offensive threat for a bottom 4 team, but those attacking numbers have continued upwards, whilst defensive stats have improved out of all recognition. They have won each start for ITB/BC and xG under new head coach Davide Nicola, which includes a trip to Atalanta .
They had to settle for a point in a 0-0 home draw with Genoa who also had good numbers , but surely they will be better served today at Cagliari who have awful defensive stats and this is a venue that the visitors have done well at, especially offensively, scoring 15 goals on 7 visits, with three wins.
Cagliari are without a win in 15 starts and they have scored just twice in seven starts and more than a single goal just once in 14 games.
Torino are the #6 second half away team in Serie A with a 5-2-4 record and they have scored 33% of all road goals (6/18) after the 76th minute , which is of special interest today as Cagliari have an awful 1-7 home goal difference through the same period (76th minute plus).
That played out well with Torino winning 1-0 and the goal coming in that ideal period, the 77th minute, just one minute after they switch the "on" button (see above).
Now the bad news, Torino have not played since, they had two games postponed because of a COVID outbreak and top scorer Andrea Belotti, Bremer, Karol Linetty and Wilfried Singo have not made the 20 man squad for today.There is, however, a return for Antonio Sanabria, who tested positive when he arrived in January, Nicola Murru, Davide Baselli and Alessandro Buongiorno.
Torino squad : Milinkovic-Savic, Sirigu, Ujkani; Ansaldi, Buongiorno, Ferigra, Izzo, Lyanco, Murru, Rodriguez, Vojvoda; Baselli, Gojak, Greco, Horvath, Kryeziu, Lukic, Mandragora, Rincon; Bonazzoli, Sanabria, Verdi, Zaza.
This is very far from ideal, three of the four named missing players would have started and Belotti is prolific (11 goals and 5 assists) but this is a team who score and pose an offensive threat way beyond what we ever normally expect from a relegation haunted team (1.43 pg).Also, we have seen teams come back firing after a COVID break and Simone Zaza and Sanabria (for 60 minutes ?), who was signed to score goals, should be able to pick up the slack, or at least enough of it to get the job done.
Sanabria only played the final 25 minutes, but did score, Torino also hit the woodwork twice but it is hard to take too many positives from that, but I guess COVID is a ready made excuse, however, Tomas Rincon cannot blame the pandemic, he was sent off late and is banned today.
Belotti, Bremer and Linetty (see above) all return today and if there are no remaining issues, could be seen as "refreshed" ,Sanabria will surely be available for longer if required and this is a potent looking offense. As good as Inter are, I would not totally rule out the "upset" today , Torino have won 2 of the last 3 h2h meetings as host and scored twice in a 4-2 loss in the reverse fixture at the San Siro back in late November where they (like Parma) also led 2-0 with less than 30 minutes to play and Inter do put themselves into tough positions more often than they need to in these type of games. That day Torino had six attempts on target (4 for Inter) and missed two BC's.
Inter have played 8 games against bottom six teams, conceded in 7, 11 goals total, 2 + on four occasions and we can discuss the reasons for that all day, given they have only given up 14 in their other 18 starts, but they might get a little complacent at times versus "inferior" opposition.
Inter to win and both teams to score @ circa 3.10 would have won in 6 of those 8 games and feels too big.
Torino to score "over" 1.5 goals @ circa happened in 4/8 and they did that at the San Siro and at circa 4.50-5.0 that is similarly overpriced (1.25 units).
Torino to win is priced at 9.50 + and I guess that the upset happens one time in 4 or 5 under similar circumstances, not once in 8 or 9 (1 unit).
All appeal to some degree and I might "save" on the BTS option, but it feels like time to be brave ! So I have gone with the other two.
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