Weekend Bundesliga fixtures
Mar 15, 2025
Bundesliga:
| 2024/25 | Overall | Home | Away | |||||||||||||||||||||
| P | W | D | L | F | A | Gdf | Pts | Form | P | W | D | L | F | A | P | W | D | L | F | A | ||||
| 1 | Bayern München | 25 | 19 | 4 | 2 | 74 | 23 | +51 | 61 | LWWO | 13 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 43 | 12 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 31 | 11 | ||
| 2 | Bayer Leverkusen | 25 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 55 | 30 | +25 | 53 | LWWO | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 29 | 17 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 26 | 13 | ||
| 3 | FSV Mainz 05 | 25 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 42 | 26 | +16 | 44 | WWWW | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 26 | 16 | ||
| 4 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 51 | 39 | +12 | 42 | LLLW | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 31 | 20 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 19 | ||
| 5 | SC Freiburg | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 34 | 36 | -2 | 41 | OOWW | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 13 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 23 | ||
| 6 | RB Leipzig | 25 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 39 | 33 | +6 | 39 | OLXO | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 22 | 15 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 18 | ||
| 7 | VfL Wolfsburg | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 49 | 39 | +10 | 38 | XWXW | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 23 | 23 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 26 | 16 | ||
| 8 | VfB Stuttgart | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 44 | 39 | +5 | 37 | XLXL | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 27 | 20 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 19 | ||
| 9 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 25 | 11 | 4 | 10 | 39 | 38 | +1 | 37 | LWLW | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 19 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 19 | ||
| 10 | Borussia Dortmund | 25 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 45 | 39 | +6 | 35 | LWWL | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 31 | 16 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 14 | 23 | ||
| 11 | FC Augsburg | 25 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 35 | WOWO | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 12 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 23 | ||
| 12 | SV Werder Bremen | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 38 | 49 | -11 | 33 | WLLL | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 22 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 27 | ||
| 13 | 1.FC Union Berlin | 25 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 23 | 37 | -14 | 27 | WLLL | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 25 | ||
| 14 | TSG Hoffenheim | 25 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 32 | 47 | -15 | 26 | XWXW | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 20 | 28 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 19 | ||
| 15 | St.Pauli | 25 | 6 | 4 | 15 | 19 | 30 | -11 | 22 | XLLL | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 12 | 16 | ||
| 16 | VfL Bochum | 25 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 25 | 50 | -25 | 18 | WLXW | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 19 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 13 | 31 | ||
| 17 | Holstein Kiel | 25 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 37 | 61 | -24 | 17 | XWLL | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 18 | 31 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 19 | 30 | ||
| 18 | 1.FC Heidenheim | 25 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 28 | 51 | -23 | 16 | XLXL | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 23 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 19 | 28 | ||
VfB Stuttgart- Bayer Leverkusen
Heidenheim -Holstein Kiel
Last weekend I previewed Kiel- Stuttgart and went with the hosts to score twice at a big price, my notes on that are reproduced at the foot of this email. The game was spoiled somewhat by a sending off for the visitors early in the second half, but played out fine for us in a 2-2 draw. Hard to see how either team was particularly pleased, it didn't help Stuttgart in their hunt for a European spot and Kiel will have been disappointed not to beat 10 men when they had that advantage for so long. However, and as strange as this sounds, maybe both have "easier" fixtures this weekend. Kiel travels to the only team below them in the table and with the "two struggling struggling teams meeting at this time of year, equalling goals" mantra ringing loudly in my ears. They played that 2-2 draw with Bochum recently and 5 of their 6 meetings with the other bottom 5 teams have produced 4+ goals and I will have to stick with them to once again score twice at what feels like a massive price.
2.5 units Holstein Kiel to score "over" 1.5 goals @ 2.93 asian line.
We all know that Leverkusen have been on an unbelievable run and for the best part of two seasons and until early this month, had been the best team in Germany since September 2023, but it has rather all come crashing around their ears with those two beatings by Bayern, the injury loss to Florian Wirtz (15 goals and 12 assists this season) and home defeat to Werder Bremen last weekend. Not just three defeats, but 7 goals conceded without reply, out of the Champions League and booked for second place in the Bundesliga , regardless of what they do today. They have actually failed to score now in 5 of 7 starts and hard to believe things have unravelled so quickly and at both ends of the pitch. Stuttgart are hardly in world beating form either, but mentally are probably in a better place and they have had a full week to rest up and prepare for this fixture, whereas any time that Bayer have had to themselves will have probably been spent licking their wounds! On this occasion, I have to prefer the hosts.
2 units Stuttgart level ball @ 2.28 asian line.
Werder Bremen- Borussia Mönchengladbach
Bremen are coming off that 2-0 win at Leverkusen ( see above) but that probably says more about the current state of the champions than anything else. Weder had conceded 22 goals in their previous 9 starts, including 3 at home to both Heidenheim (18th) and Hoffenheim (14th) and no team outside the bottom two has given up more goals and 49 total is 1.98 per game. Bremen do not quite meet the criteria of teams that BMG do best against , but they do concede at the same /higher rate than those that do. Ahead of the visitors' last away start a 3-0 win at Heidenheim I touched upon that ......
BMG have been very hit and miss, but I have spoken about them having potential this season and that goes double offensively. They have won at Stuttgart and Union Berlin in their last two away starts, only sit 5 points off Champions League pace and will fancy their chances of getting into one of the European spots. To claim that they need to be winning games like this and h2h wise they are undefeated in four (three wins) scoring 9 goals. They tend to step up big time against the weaker Bundesliga sides and here is the stat of the day, they are 9-0-0 against bottom 7 teams with a 23-6 goal difference and they are the archetypal flat track bullies!
BMG will be happy to be back on the road after losing 3-1 at home to a strong Mainz team last week and they have scored 12 goals in their last six trips to Bremen and won the reverse fixture 4-1 in November. They have averaged 2.25 goals in the last 20 h2h meetings for another strong trend and that can continue.
2.25 units Borussia Mönchengladbach to score "over" 1.5 goals @ 2.15 asian line.
Good luck!
Holstein Kiel- VfB Stuttgart
I have largely been bigging up Stuttgart since the start of last season and that played out well in 2023/24 with second place and a spot in the Champions League. After elimination from Europe in this campaign they looked to be heading back to the top 4, but have lost they way again recently and sit in 9th, 5 points off the CL spots, having taken just 4 points from their last six Bundesliga outings.
Hard to say what they reason is, they might just be worn out by the extra games, travel and increased level of competition, or this is just a levelling off from sky high performances last season. However, they were 3rd for xP last season and remain 4th this time round, so maybe the drop off is not so much, but the overall Bundesliga level has squeezed up and only one place, but Stuttgart are on course for 14 fewer expected points over the 34 games.
It is hard not to like Holstein Kiel who got themselves up into the relegation playoff spot and out of the bottom two with a win at Union Berlin last week and I, gor one, would love to see them survive.
Last month they won double bets for us in back to back games away to Bayern and home to Bochum.....
Best game last weekend was undoubtedly the Bayern-Kiel game when I wrote ................
Bayern conceded a late goal in beating Slovan Bratislava here in Munich on Wednesday and meet a similarly offensive side today in Holstein Kiel who are far and away the top scorers amongst the bottom 7. They have also conceded the most, with all their Bundesliga starts averaging 4.0. Their first ever campaign in the top flight, actually they are the first club ever from the state of Schleswig-Holstein to play in the Bundesliga, looks like it could end in relegation, but they have been a fun edition and I expect them to look to enjoy games like this and keep going for the full 90 minutes. They lost the reverse fixture 6-1, with their goal coming late and at 5-0 down and they came back from 2-0 down to draw at Leverkusen so no reason to feel they will give up regardless of scoreline today. Kiel have also scored in all 9 away games (in six after the 85th minute!), 2+ in five of those and we can expect those trends to continue.
2 units Bayern Munich to win and both teams to score @ 2.58 asian line.
1 unit Holstein Kiel to score "over" 1.5 goals @ 7.0-8.0 general quote.
Bayern led 4-0 early in the second half, but once again Kiel simply refused to lie down or give up , scored and then twice more very late to great joy in my house and lost 4-3. Kiel were outplayed, of course they were, but created 6 BC's and it is hard not to be impressed by them and admire their approach. In some ways today is a harder fixture as they host Bochum in a relegation game where all the pressure suddenly switches to them as the home side. This is Bochum's third straight relegation campaign through which they have conceded 190 goals in 88 Bundesliga games at the rate of 2.16 per start. Given Holstein game rate of (now) 4.15 goals and this making the "two struggling teams playing each other equalling goals mantra" that I (too) often quote at this time of the season, we surely have goals in prospect. The reverse fixture finished 2-2 to meet the criteria and Kiel were on top there winning xG 1.9-0.8, BC's 4-2 and TIPA 30-16 and edged almost all statistical categories.
I fancy them to score, they have scored 10 total in their last five games against top 5 teams and Stuttgart still have to be considered of that level and have also conceded in 8 of their last 9.
I think that BTS and "over" 2.5 goals is likely, but odds of 1.925 is not really what I am looking for, so I will be braver and suggest 2 units Holstein Kiel to score "over" 1.5 goals @ 3.0-3.25 general quote for the 7th time in 15 starts against top 10 teams, including versus Bayern, Bayer and Frankfurt the top three.
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