WTA : Miami Open betting tip :Karolina Pliskova- Marketa Vondrousova
Mar 27, 2019
WTA : Miami Open: Karolina Pliskova- Marketa Vondrousova
Big all Czech match up. I discussed Pliskova's match with diminutive Yulia Putinseva on Monday, taking the Kazah with the handicap start ............
Standing between Putintseva and a spot in the quarterfinals is former World No.1 Karolina Pliskova who beat Alizé Cornet in three sets later in the day yeaterday, so a few hours less rest for her. Pliskova played Putintseva in their first match of the 2019 season at the Brisbane International, recovering from a set and a break down to win in three tough sets.Pliskova has won the last three h2h meetings and all were on hard courts, but they have been increasingly close and I think it was noteworthy that YP had a lot of joy in the match in Australia on her opponents second serve and Pliskova's SS numbers have been on the low side in most starts since the Australian Open and if the courts here are slower and it is hard to be 100% certain yet about the speed, than that should suit her less and Putinitseva more. The Kazakh should also be suited by the late timing of this match as that will slow the court still further and Pliskova already commented about that being an issue yesterday v Cornet and this is scheduled for quite a bit later in the evening.
Pliskova won though 2-6, 6-3, 7-5 in a shade over two hours, she made 4 double faults, won only 11/33 of second serve points and YP had 19 BP's converting 6, winning 50% on return. To give that some context, Pliskova had two big matches at the Australian Open of similar length against huge hitters in Serena and Osaka (one win, one loss) in both she lost only 38% on return and faced a total of 19 break points combined across the six sets, which highlights how handicapped she is on these courts in terms of her big weapon. This is, again, an evening match. None of which means she cannot win, just that it will be harder than usual.
Marketa Vondrousova has shown a great liking for these "slow" hard courts and not just this year, she made the last 8 in Indian Wells beating Kasatkina (3 sets) , Ostapenko (3) Halep (3) before losing to Svitolina (should have won) in a decider, ahead of that I wrote .......
Elina Svitolina was taken to three very long sets by Ash Barty yesterday, in the longest match of the year on Tour, 3 hours 12 minutes and afterwards the victor said that "it felt longer", she had already played a long match with Sofia Kenin here and had strapping on what looked a bruised leg injury against the Aussie. It didn't seem to hinder her, but this is a quick turnaround. Marketa Vondrousova also had a three setter yesterday where she prevailed over world #2 Simona Halep, but incredibly, that took only 1 hour 39 minutes, which would not be particularly long for a two setter. Vondrousova won 53% points on return and took 8 of 9 break points, she should be fresher today and her odds feel on the big side. Despite her youth and overall inexperience, the courts here clearly play to all her strengths and she has a 7-1 record in Indian Wells, with wins over Sabalenka/Konta/Kasatkina/Osta
Vondrousova has not dropped a set in Miami so far, clearly this and Indain Wells are set up perfectly for her, now she meets another top 10 opponent and 6 of her 7 matches against players ranked that high have gone the distance and this has three sets written all over it. Pliskova has dropped at least one set in 21/34 matches against top 50 ranked lefties. 13/24 matches here in miami since R32 have gone the distance, plus three others to 22 or 23 games.
2 units "over" 23 games 2.17 Pinnacle/Sportmarket Pro.
Good Luck.
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